Trump Approval Rating Watch thread.

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Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
74,099
6,608
126
Ego as in *I* am the sole arbiter of my reality and no evidence will change my mind. I am locked into my own being, I am right because I have decided that I am right and I am the sole arbiter of my reality.

I model my learning after the scientific method. What I know is based on the best information I have and if new information arises that better explains something I adopt it.

I am never completely right but rarely completely wrong either and I'm fine with that.
I agree again. So may I rephrase the question? Why does the ego exist? How and why do we have one? Is there some need that makes want to see the world that way?
 

J.Wilkins

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2017
2,681
640
91
I agree again. So may I rephrase the question? Why does the ego exist? How and why do we have one? Is there some need that makes want to see the world that way?

That is a hard question to even speculate about, the root cause may be evolutionary but since we can reason away most things that hinder us it would have to be subconscious as in an instinct. It's certainly possible that affirmation of the ego through upbringing and culture that demands obedience and faith contributes to solidifying the ideas as unchallengeable which, since the human brain loves everything to be uniformly treated, means that all ideas that the individual have must be right or at least not wrong.

It makes sense that there was a time when you took your elders truths as absolute or paid with your life. So the original instinct was probably necessary at some point in time.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,273
53,819
136
Also note that Rasmussen is of Likely Voters. Who cares about voters 3.5 years before an election? Related: who can honestly pare down to just the correct likely voters this far out from an election? What matters at this point is the approval of all adults.

Including Rasmussen at this point is not apples/oranges. It is closer to bricks/oranges.

Yes it seems likely they are applying their likely voter screen from last election or something close to it, which seems like a pretty dumb idea.

Considering their relatively poor accuracy and consistent republican bias it's odd that they haven't gone back and changed their model. Maybe they like always getting the press from conservative outlets.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
74,099
6,608
126
Partly fear. If you were raised to believe certain things and you have those beliefs challenged, its easier to fight or scream or simply ignore new data than it is to admit something you believe is wrong.
This is especially problematic with religious beliefs. Interestingly the catholic church has actually been getting much better, while Muslims and American Protestants are fighting harder every day to avoid reality. Kinda scary.
I agree but see it somewhat differently. You call it fear and I agree. And I jump up and down yes on that we were raise to believe certain things, but the reason we challenge new data is because the old ideas were not optional beliefs. We were made to conform to those ideas by threat of punishment, punishment for being bad, and only in conformity was there any safety. We became good by conforming to our programming, whatever it was, and we defend it at the cost of heresy and all that implies. We are all defending the notion of good we were indoctrinated with and just as we know that pleasure is superior to pain, we know that our good whatever it may be, is the one and only real good.

This is why I feel that hate of the other is just seen as hate of the good and nobody will pay the slightest attention to that. Only if you can see that we all believe in the good, differing only in what it is, can we show enough respect for the other to be willing to talk and listen to him. How can you hate people who believe in the good, but were incorrectly indoctrinated into what it actually is, and how can you do that when you may have never considered that is exactly your own condition?
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
74,099
6,608
126
That is a hard question to even speculate about, the root cause may be evolutionary but since we can reason away most things that hinder us it would have to be subconscious as in an instinct. It's certainly possible that affirmation of the ego through upbringing and culture that demands obedience and faith contributes to solidifying the ideas as unchallengeable which, since the human brain loves everything to be uniformly treated, means that all ideas that the individual have must be right or at least not wrong.

It makes sense that there was a time when you took your elders truths as absolute or paid with your life. So the original instinct was probably necessary at some point in time.
Pretty damn good in my opinion.
 
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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,229
14,224
136
Also note that Rasmussen is of Likely Voters. Who cares about voters 3.5 years before an election? Related: who can honestly pare down to just the correct likely voters this far out from an election? What matters at this point is the approval of all adults.

Including Rasmussen at this point is not apples/oranges. It is closer to bricks/oranges.

Yes, the poll's red lean is well understood. Likely voter model, and they don't call cell phones. I was just pointing out that there's an even more obvious reason their approval number is always higher. Because both approval and disapproval numbers are always going to be higher when they don't allow respondents to pick "not sure." People can always debate the effect of things like likely voter filters, but this is one just...right there. I think out of the 5 point lean, 3 of those points are probably due to this.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,234
43,448
136
The winning continues....

President Donald Trump's second-quarter job approval rating has fallen below what any other past president has gotten during the same time frame.

A new Gallup poll found that Trump averaged a 38.8% rating between April 20 and July 19. The average approval rating for that time is 62%. President Obama was at the average during this time period, as was President Nixon. President Clinton is the only president who was below 50% by the second quarter, coming in with a 44% approval rating.


Trump's approval rating isn't just low compared to the same time period across administrations. His second quarter ranks 250th out of all 287 presidential quarters Gallup has measured since 1945. But there's a large partisan gap in the numbers. Just 8% of Democrats approved of Trump's job performance during the second quarter, but 85% of Republicans did. Approval ratings have become increasingly polarized in recent administrations, but the 77-point gap for Trump is a new record.

http://time.com/4868028/donald-trump-approval-rating/


Even worse for him the Rasmussen numbers are tanking too.
 

thilanliyan

Lifer
Jun 21, 2005
12,013
2,234
126
He's still at nearly 40% approval (85% for Republicans)?!! Wow, I thought it would be a lot lower considering he hasn't really accomplished a whole lot, and it's becoming more and more likely that he's had shady dealings with the Russians.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,234
43,448
136
He's still at nearly 40% approval (85% for Republicans)?!! Wow, I thought it would be a lot lower considering he hasn't really accomplished a whole lot, and it's becoming more and more likely that he's had shady dealings with the Russians.

I wouldn't expect he'll really start loosing them until sometime next year if this keeps up. They're willing to give him a lot of breathing room. Though that could be accelerated this fall should Congress totally and royally screw the pooch on something like the debt ceiling or government funding.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,273
53,819
136
He's still at nearly 40% approval (85% for Republicans)?!! Wow, I thought it would be a lot lower considering he hasn't really accomplished a whole lot, and it's becoming more and more likely that he's had shady dealings with the Russians.

I read something the other day which could help explain why his numbers have held up with Republicans.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/19/...-of-support-may-be-smaller-than-it-seems.html

Basically it's that as people are turned off by Trump some of them stop identifying as Republicans, meaning his overall approval rating declines while his Republican numbers stay pretty high. Since the election the percentage of Americans identifying as Republicans has declined about 4 points. If that's the case then Trump is only holding about 80% of Republicans and while that might sound high, it's actually a very low number for a president. Hell, Nixon as he was resigning in disgrace still had an approval rating among Republicans of about 50%.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
74,099
6,608
126
I read something the other day which could help explain why his numbers have held up with Republicans.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/19/...-of-support-may-be-smaller-than-it-seems.html

Basically it's that as people are turned off by Trump some of them stop identifying as Republicans, meaning his overall approval rating declines while his Republican numbers stay pretty high. Since the election the percentage of Americans identifying as Republicans has declined about 4 points. If that's the case then Trump is only holding about 80% of Republicans and while that might sound high, it's actually a very low number for a president. Hell, Nixon as he was resigning in disgrace still had an approval rating among Republicans of about 50%.
Good news. Pretty soon Trump will be the last Republican and have an approval of 100%.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,229
14,224
136
I read something the other day which could help explain why his numbers have held up with Republicans.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/19/...-of-support-may-be-smaller-than-it-seems.html

Basically it's that as people are turned off by Trump some of them stop identifying as Republicans, meaning his overall approval rating declines while his Republican numbers stay pretty high. Since the election the percentage of Americans identifying as Republicans has declined about 4 points. If that's the case then Trump is only holding about 80% of Republicans and while that might sound high, it's actually a very low number for a president. Hell, Nixon as he was resigning in disgrace still had an approval rating among Republicans of about 50%.

That explains the drop from mid 40's that occurred from inauguration day to about early May. But his approval average has held steady in the 38-40 range for almost 3 months now. Still wondering what is going to get him to the mid 30's or below.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
25,429
11,820
136
That explains the drop from mid 40's that occurred from inauguration day to about early May. But his approval average has held steady in the 38-40 range for almost 3 months now. Still wondering what is going to get him to the mid 30's or below.
Televised child molestation?
 

J.Wilkins

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2017
2,681
640
91
Trump is not a perfect person and those actions would not reflect who he is. Hillary on the other hand actual had children up her...

Didn't she run that paedophile ring in that pizza place that Alex Jones reported on?
 

Younigue

Diamond Member
Feb 5, 2017
5,888
1,447
106
Didn't she run that paedophile ring in that pizza place that Alex Jones reported on?
That's certainly what that sick so-and-so was referring to. Never mind that it makes no sense, has been disproved and yes, Alex Jones. Dark thoughts for Dark people.
 

J.Wilkins

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2017
2,681
640
91
That's certainly what that sick so-and-so was referring to. Never mind that it makes no sense, has been disproved and yes, Alex Jones. Dark thoughts for Dark people.

It makes perfect sense, you have to make shit up to be the king of the retards...
 
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Thebobo

Lifer
Jun 19, 2006
18,574
7,672
136
Interesting graph. Go Maryland! Its a little out of date. Hmm might move to Vermont if it weren't so damn cold. And wow a lot of poor suckers in WVA looking for coal jobs I guess.

 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Interesting graph. Go Maryland! Its a little out of date. Hmm might move to Vermont if it weren't so damn cold. And wow a lot of poor suckers in WVA looking for coal jobs I guess.

Having relatives in WV, I can tell you that they love the man and he can do no wrong. The believe, honestly, that if everyone would get out of his way and let him do what he wants, we would live in utopia - seriously.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,273
53,819
136
Having relatives in WV, I can tell you that they love the man and he can do no wrong. The believe, honestly, that if everyone would get out of his way and let him do what he wants, we would live in utopia - seriously.

If his health care bill passes they will suffer an extremely rude awakening as massive cuts to health care spending is going to adversely affect health care employment which, if I remember correctly, is the #1 employment sector in WV. They aren't just going to lose their health insurance (as huge portions of WV are on Medicaid), they are going to lose their jobs.



Just kidding, they will find something else to blame it on I'm sure.
 

Commodus

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 2004
9,215
6,820
136
The sad thing is, I think there are only a few things that would get many of these hardcore Republicans to change their minds:

1. Family members dying as a direct result of lost health care coverage.
2. Trump commits a violent crime on camera (including sexual violence)
3. Trump goes visibly, unquestionably insane on-camera (it's pretty clear he's already a narcissistic sociopath... I mean the wild, uncontrollable sort that'd have put you in an asylum a century ago).
4. Russian tanks rolling through their neighborhood (and even then, some would be thanking the Russians for 'liberating' them from democracy and freedom of speech).
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,599
30,862
146
If his health care bill passes they will suffer an extremely rude awakening as massive cuts to health care spending is going to adversely affect health care employment which, if I remember correctly, is the #1 employment sector in WV. They aren't just going to lose their health insurance (as huge portions of WV are on Medicaid), they are going to lose their jobs.



Just kidding, they will find something else to blame it on I'm sure.

No, it will be Obama's fault when Trump ends the ACA. Trump said so himself!
 

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
15,468
7,985
136
That is a hard question to even speculate about, the root cause may be evolutionary but since we can reason away most things that hinder us it would have to be subconscious as in an instinct. It's certainly possible that affirmation of the ego through upbringing and culture that demands obedience and faith contributes to solidifying the ideas as unchallengeable which, since the human brain loves everything to be uniformly treated, means that all ideas that the individual have must be right or at least not wrong.

It makes sense that there was a time when you took your elders truths as absolute or paid with your life. So the original instinct was probably necessary at some point in time.

In reference to instincts, it seems to me that so much of it was/is prioritized toward being survivable and of being prodigiously fertile. With the advent of surviving and prospering in a "civilized" world where ego is a prominent characteristic toward determining who ruled and who obeyed, I'd say it plays a very essential part in how we structure our present day societies. For example, let's refer to the egos of Hitler, Mussolini, Trump, Putin, Genghis Khan and every other like minded despot of the world. Their egos have played such a large part toward how they saw themselves and toward those of whom they felt they needed to be in control of.
 

mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
19,995
14,327
136
The sad thing is, I think there are only a few things that would get many of these hardcore Republicans to change their minds:

1. Family members dying as a direct result of lost health care coverage.

"The system was failing anyway"
 
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