Vega/Navi Rumors (Updated)

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guachi

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Nov 16, 2010
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So it looks like consumer Vega in any quantity won't arrive until August. That's basically one year after Polaris.
 

Qwertilot

Golden Member
Nov 28, 2013
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which, imm, makes their gains this last year all the more impressive (tech and finances/company health and efficiency). Those folks have been hitting on all cylinders (the ones that they have, anyway ) and punching well above their resources. It's really quite admirable.
Hasn't their gfx stuff slipped rather backwards in comparison?

Fury at least got close to the 980ti, this stuff seems likely to launch vs Volta, and the top card may well struggle to keep up with the 1170.

Doing quite well to be anywhere of course.
 

Excessi0n

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Jul 25, 2014
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The card Raja held up on stage was only 8+6 as some people pointed out, I went back and got a screenshot of it:


The card he's holding has 8+6, but it looks like the opening in the shroud has room for 8+8. Wouldn't be surprised if the PCB was just an engineering sample being used as a mockup.
 

Bacon1

Diamond Member
Feb 14, 2016
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7nm is Navi and don't expect it to launch in 2018. I don't believe GF will be able to produce GPUs before the end of 2018 with launch early 2019.

Their roadmap looks like it will be in 2018 if they want to have their next one done by end of 2019
 

tamz_msc

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Jan 5, 2017
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The renders indicate the the shroud has a metallic sheen, the card shown on stage seemed to have a texture similar to the reference RX 480.
 

Gideon

Platinum Member
Nov 27, 2007
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Seeing 480 GB/s HBM2 is good and bad. Good: RIP 350 GB/s leaks. Bad: Still no sign of 512 GB/s. While surely not much of a difference in performance, from a brand strength standpoint it looks weak to have less than your predecessor. Consumer Vega, especially if it comes later could have faster.
I haven't seen anybody bring it up yet, but personally i'm hopeful that 8GB stacks will clock higher than the 16GB ones, and we might see 512 GB/s yet.
 

Veradun

Senior member
Jul 29, 2016
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This is really sad.I am waiting for Vega since GTX1070 launch.I hate GTX1070 but AMD year later still dont have anything i can buy and probably next 3 months wont have(i want aftermarket air cooled vega.Not watercooled or with crap reference blower).This is just so sad.
GTX 1070 release date was June 10



Hasn't their gfx stuff slipped rather backwards in comparison?

Fury at least got close to the 980ti, this stuff seems likely to launch vs Volta, and the top card may well struggle to keep up with the 1170.

Doing quite well to be anywhere of course.

And their market share had no hit due to the missing high end offering. Meanwhile they started spending a lot more in marketing. I see a pattern here...
 
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davide445

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May 29, 2016
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More news (or rumors, didn't know how to classify it) pointing out Vega delay is mainly due to HBM availability from Hinyx.
This is a massive business problem for AMD and is the second time happening after the Fury saga with prices spiking and limited availability, a path the will be replicated also this time with the same conditions.

So again I'm wondering why AMD didn't provided an option with a GDDR5X implementation.
Vega was demoed 6 months ago, GTX 1080 was presented 1y ago, didn't having a backup plan was possibly forced since limited resources or lack of options (GDDR5X supply chain already drained from Nvidia?), still is a real pity not being able to compete for others failure.
 

OatisCampbell

Senior member
Jun 26, 2013
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GTX 1070 release date was June 10





And their market share had no hit due to the missing high end offering. Meanwhile they started spending a lot more in marketing. I see a pattern here...
In tech markets it is a very difficult position to ask your customers to wait a year, then ask them to wait some more.
Launching a professional card won't help that.
 

Valantar

Golden Member
Aug 26, 2014
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So again I'm wondering why AMD didn't provided an option with a GDDR5X implementation.
As has been repeated innumerable times in this thread, adding a GDDR5(X) PHY to the die would massively affect die size. For sufficient performance, you'd need at least a 384-bit bus, if not 512 - that's 6 or 8 64-bit PHYs, each 3-4x the size of one of the current two HBM2 interfaces. If Vega without GDDR5(X) is 500-550mm2, it would easily be 600-650mm2 with GDDR5 support. Not only is it a complete waste for the highest end SKUs, but it would significantly affect yields and production costs.
 
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davide445

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@Valantar I'm an amateur so just arriving in this forum.
Titan Xp die size is less than 500mm2 using GDDR5X, suppose there are other reasons.
Not want to complain/flame/etc, just to inform as industry passionate.
 

Veradun

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Jul 29, 2016
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In tech markets it is a very difficult position to ask your customers to wait a year, then ask them to wait some more.
Launching a professional card won't help that.

So how do you explain this year of stable/slightly increasing market share?
 

xpea

Senior member
Feb 14, 2014
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So how do you explain this year of stable/slightly increasing market share?
simply because AMD gives away their Polaris with no profit in a high volume category. It's so huge issue for AMD that they decide to attack first the pro market with Vega. One slide says it all:
 
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Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
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I could see it making sense if they had some chips that had disabled CUs or some chips that couldn't clock very high so AMD creates a bin for those and targets a 150W TDP or something like that and slots the card up against the 1070. Maybe it's just a minimal bin that sits right above the scrap heap to let AMD recoup some cost, but I can't see it being a money maker for them.
Most likely the TDP for the Frontier Edition GPU is 250W.
 

guskline

Diamond Member
Apr 17, 2006
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Is it realistic to believe that a single high end Vega gpu will equal 2 RX480s in CF?
 
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Veradun

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Jul 29, 2016
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simply because AMD gives away their Polaris with no profit in a high volume category. It's so huge issue for AMD that they decide to attack first the pro market with Vega. One slide says it all:
(slide cut, emphasis mine)

This is interesting, care to back this with some accurate data?
 

MangoX

Senior member
Feb 13, 2001
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Is it realist to believe that a single high end Vega cpu will equal 2 RX480s in CF?

Well the FE card has 512 less shaders but does have a 347mhz clock speed advantage (going by ATs estimate). With architectural improvements it could at least match 480 C.F. minus the multigpu disadvantages.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
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(slide cut, emphasis mine)

This is interesting, care to back this with some accurate data?

yeah no profit...that's an interesting assertion that tends to reject the last 2-3 qtrs of ~30% margin claims. anyway, this is starting to derail.
 

xpea

Senior member
Feb 14, 2014
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Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
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not difficult to find out. Google AMD quarterly financial report and you will see that the radeon division is loosing money...

edit: http://www.anandtech.com/show/11092/amd-announces-q4-2016-earnings
AMD Computing and Graphics
Q4'2016 Q3'2016 Q4'2015
Revenue $600M $472M $470M
Operating Income -$21M -$66M -$99M
You understand that Computing and graphics accounts for CPUs and GPUs?

Loss comes from unsold wafers of AMD APUs, that AMD had to buy from GloFo, because of WSA.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/11319/amd-releases-q1-2017-earnings-vega-and-naples-in-q2
Here is Q1 earnings. Second quarter in a row with lower loss compared to the same period of time, but year earlier. It was just one month in Ryzen sales.

AMD is on track for profitability by the end of Q3 this year.
 
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T1beriu

Member
Mar 3, 2017
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if it's designed to be a data center card

It's not a data center card. It's a pro-sumer card. It's on the Pro line-up on AMD's site. It's for game developers, VR creators, visualization professionals etc. Vega Instinct (MI) is for data centers. Why put so much bling on a data center card?! It's AMD's Titan.
 

KompuKare

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2009
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As has been repeated innumerable times in this thread, adding a GDDR5(X) PHY to the die would massively affect die size. For sufficient performance, you'd need at least a 384-bit bus, if not 512 - that's 6 or 8 64-bit PHYs, each 3-4x the size of one of the current two HBM2 interfaces. If Vega without GDDR5(X) is 500-550mm2, it would easily be 600-650mm2 with GDDR5 support. Not only is it a complete waste for the highest end SKUs, but it would significantly affect yields and production costs.
But it does seem like it's almost a pride thing with AMD and HBM/2 at this stage. I'd guess after the Fury HBM1 shortage it was too late to do much about it, but doesn't HBCC imply they have at least somewhat abstracted memory?
So if HBCC is a sort of abstraction layer away from the actual memory, then swapping the HBM2 and GDDR5/X should be possible. And surely the lower end Vega is not going to be using HBM2. If it is not possible to use HBCC with GDDR5/X, then someone back at the initial design stage of Vega didn't do proper risk management and believed Hynix's optimistic roadmap.
 
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