It's not worst case or best case, but probably the best showing AMD can come up with right now. I don't see any proof that the intake fans are taped over, and I can't see AMD purposefully throttling their cards, so I'm rejecting that conjecture. At the same time, these chips are apparently fresh out of the fab and using very unoptimised drivers.
I can see performance improving a fair bit with proper drivers, but this also means that Vega is probably still some ways off. To be honest, they'd probably be better off having this level of performance and launching around year end then they would an additional +10-20% and launching in Q2.
As far as big versus small vega, I give it 50/50. On the one hand, having only 8GB of memory and the existence of Polaris 12 (which would slot nicely between this and Polaris 10) point towards this being small Vega. However, AMD's pattern of inept execution and shooting themselves in the foot cannot be ignored.