If anything, ATI is surprising me. And if they go anywhere, it is looking like they will go up. Or will they? The R300 looks to give ATI a large advantage over nVidia, because when the R300 is to be released, its competition will come from the NV25, a GPU that is basically a really beefed up NV20. The R300 will not be merely a beefed up R200 (the R250, will, however...) and that is where ATI looks to have an advantage. If the Radeon 8500 running on its R200 GPU didn't drive the steak through the heart of the GF3 like many thought it would, then the R300 looks to be ATI's next good bet, only it would be aimed at taking out the NV25 (GF4) instead. Beating nVidia out with the most powerful GPU in the 6 month product refresh would be huge for ATI, and it looks like that could very well happen with the R300. nVidia may not have anything really big until the NV30, which won't be coming anytime soon.
nVidia still has a huge trump card up their sleeve, and it is far from Ace, but hurts much worse; the NV17 or GeForce 4 MX if you will. nVidia?s big seller wasn?t close to being one of their more powerful GPUs, it was the GeForce 2 MX, and MX boards are still selling well due to low price points. If nVidia can offer the GeForce 4 MX at price points on par with the GeForce 2 MX upon its initial debut, then it may not matter who can offer the fastest/most powerful GPU, especially when the next king may not win by much at all. We are seeing some budget board from ATI, but none I would think, are as dominant as the GF2 MX was/is. Also, I am not seeing much from ATI as far as plans for future budget boards go
ATI has been improving greatly, slowly but greatly, and I can?t see them fading from the picture anytime soon. (drivers still need to improve in order to compete with nVidia?s driver service) However, I also don?t see nVidia losing its position anytime soon.