Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[Thibsie]

From what I remember Nuvia's OG focus was an ARM64 server core so it doesn't seem a stretch that design specs were altered negatively to favor QC's WARMtop/smartphone focus instead.

Indeed.
And for what I understood, those who came to QC with the Nuvia buy, well, a lot left elsewhere.

 

[adroc_thurston]

don't think AMD will price 8950X @ $999

They will since nothing stops them.

In fact, I think AMD will price Ryzen 8000 series similar to current pricing of Zen4

Why would they sell unquestionable leadership si for less?

There is X3D version of Zen 5 coming and I believe AMD will position it like current one

A lot, lot more expensive.

 

[soresu]

They will since nothing stops them.

Market conditions still constrain pricing.

There's no point setting a price tag that too many people will simply pass on until price cuts start happening from competition or the next gen coming, which they will at the moment with inflation still rampant and fuel prices not back to where they were before February last year.

They also still have the AM4 -> AM5 platform migration problem to swim against wherein many don't want to pay out for a new mobo and DDR5 RAM, especially as AMD mobos have increased in price dramatically since Zen1.

Pricing the SKUs too high will only make that problem worse unless DDR5 becomes ridiculously cheap and/or AMD strong arm the OEMs to set a more reasonable ceiling on mobo prices which seems unlikely.

 

[SpudLobby]

That's what you'd think, isn't it?

In reality, without L2 they're exactly the same at ~2.6 mm².
That's comparing Avalanche in A15/M2 with regular Zen4. Of course, Everest is even larger.

And Zen4c is less than 1.5 mm².

Zen 4, or 4C doesn't have remotely the logical size and Perf/GHz that Apple's Performance cores have, and Perf/Area - before I hear this tired line about Zen 4 vs Arm/Apple in particular - is overrated when that Performance is reliant on ridiculous wattages unsuitable for cloud server cases and most client use cases (at least if you want any decent battery life...). Needs qualification.

At any rate, 4C or 4, it's like a 30-35% Perf/GHz gap still for most workloads vs Avalanche, Firestorm etc. Looks like 25% vs Cortex X4. You can bet 5 and 5C on N4P won't match the perf/area ratio Zen 4/4C have - this is just how ST performance is to some extent, it's part of it, it's not a magical linear trade for area which will almost never happen unless your first core was garbage. You minimize how wasteful it gets to avoid ending up like Intel. Looking forward to watching the signs flip on these arguments once AMD grows a brain and builds a chonk core that does well at modest clocks - all for it, but it will be funny.

I'm surprised (impressed by the honesty for once) people like "Spec" (adroc_thurston) will admit this - probably because we're nearing Zen 5 - but Zen 4 just isn't that large and does well mostly because of it's prefetching + branch prediction. At some point you have to expand the bread and butter.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Market conditions still constrain pricing.

Not in DIY.

They also still have the AM4 -> AM5 platform migration problem to swim against wherein many don't want to pay out for a new mobo and DDR5 RAM, especially as AMD mobos have increased in price dramatically since Zen1.

Frankly irrelevant, the perf will say it all.

Pricing the SKUs too high will only make that problem worse unless DDR5 becomes ridiculously cheap and/or AMD strong arm the OEMs to set a more reasonable ceiling on mobo prices which seems unlikely.

The performance.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Looking forward to watching the signs flip on these arguments once AMD grows a brain and builds a chonk core that does well at modest clocks - all for it, but it will be funny.

Oh it's still very area efficient; nothing the size of GLC or anything.
And it's not designed for modest clocks, you still go IBM zoom-zoom.

I'm surprised (impressed by the honesty for once) people like "Spec" (adroc_thurston) will admit this

The writing's been on the wall since Zen3 got a 19% IPC bump with little in a way of rename or OoO capacity creep.

 

[Timmah!]

$999 take it or leave it.

If thats the case, they can keep it.
I would be willing to pay that much for 24C, but not another 16C.

 

[adroc_thurston]

If thats the case, they can keep it.

Lol.

I would be willing to pay that much for 24C, but not another 16C.

You will be the first running to buy it, then.
Single-thread perf matters!

 

[exquisitechar]

If the vanilla 16C ends up being $999, I'll just wait for Zen 6. May as well hold out until the best of (hopefully) AM5 and I'm looking forward to a CPU without the obsolete 2019 chiplet design, anyway.

 

[adroc_thurston]

If the vanilla 16C ends up being $999

It's gonna be worth it still.

May as well hold out until the best of (hopefully) AM5

There's a chance Zen6 won't be AM5.

 

[Timmah!]

It's gonna be worth it still.

Thats really up to anyone to decide.

Unless its like 2x fast as 7950x, for me personally, as the 7950x owner, the rumored ~30 percent performance increase, is not worth it, not for 999 i mean. Thats the perf increase i expect to get at similar price-point i got 7950x for.
Granted, 3950x/5950x owners may see it differently.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Thats really up to anyone to decide.

Not really, just that market conditions will be such.

the rumored ~30 percent performance increase, is not worth it, not for 999 i mean

Oh well, you'll see the bar charts on launch anyway.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Not really, just that market conditions will be such.

Market conditions are that desktop PC sales are crashing. Inflation makes everyone around the world hold back on non-essential purchases like CPUs and new PCs.

Also, $ has appreciated a lot compared to several world currencies.

I'm expecting a potential 24C Zen5 to price match 16C Zen4 7950X at launch. And 16C Zen5 should be priced much lower than 7950X. If not, just like exquisitechar I'm not buying. Will wait, or go Zen4 / Intel, and AMD will overstock on Zen5.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Market conditions are that desktop PC sales are crashing

Intel DT client rev was literally up last Q. Lol.

I'm expecting a potential 24C Zen5

There is none.

And 16C Zen5 should be priced much lower than 7950X.

Is $999 lower than 7950X?

and AMD will overstock on Zen5.

They won't, it'll fly off the shelves just like Zen3 did.
It's very-very good and there are no other options of the same perf level.

 

[Joe NYC]

If thats the case, they can keep it.
I would be willing to pay that much for 24C, but not another 16C.

If you could achieve the same performance with 16 threads as with 24 threads, by having higher single thread performance, the comparison between these CPUs would not even be close. The 16 core one, with hither single thread performance would be far more valuable.

 

[CakeMonster]

I've wanted the option of more cores since Z3, but I'll admit its been proven that better IPC will absolutely make up for it to some extent even when you're on the edge. The 6c Z4's performed way better than I expected (I still wouldn't want one). I think we'll be just fine with 16c for Z5, and bonus is that we don't have to deal with schedulers yet.

 

[H433x0n]

$999 take it or leave it.

That's pretty bold. I guess we'll have to see how it plays out.

If the performance is as you say (with Zen 5 bringing +30% ST uplift) and ARL being a dud, I think it'll be a return to the Zen 3 pricing where the 5950X was selling at $799.99. That or 8950X at $699.99 and the 8950X3D at $799.99 but unlike Zen 4 they won't feel compelled to do any unofficial price cuts since there isn't much competition at the high end.

I may even buy it myself and I'm typically somebody who only purchases Intel. I'd personally prefer a processor with packaging similar to ARL or the upcoming Zen 6 but ST performance is king.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Intel DT client rev was literally up last Q. Lol.

AMD revenue drops 9% as PC chip sales decline sharply

AMD's report comes as the PC industry is in a deep slump, with shipments dropping 30% in the first quarter, according to IDC.

www.cnbc.com

"AMD revenue drops 9% as PC chip sales decline sharply"

"AMD’s report comes as the PC industry is in a deep slump, with shipments dropping 30% in the first quarter, according to IDC."

Is $999 lower than 7950X?

Huh? 7950X was $699 at launch. As I said, a potential 24C Zen5 (whether there will be such a CPU or not) should be priced the same, i.e. $699 and not $999. And 16C Zen5 lower.

AMD had stayed on max 16C for standard desktop for far too long. They're going to be run over by Intel soon in MT perf if they do not increase core count. They need to bump core count just like they did with Zen (8C) and Zen2 (16C). AMD has stagnated since then.

They won't, it'll fly off the shelves just like Zen3 did.
It's very-very good and there are no other options of the same perf level.

Of course Zen5 have better perf than Zen4. Why release it otherwise?

But people are not prepared to pay the amount of money for it that you think. They'll buy Zen3/Zen4 or Intel instead. Also, Zen5 will soon after release be competing with Intel Arrow Lake (8P + 32E), which potentially will stomp on Zen5 in MT workloads.

 

[Timorous]

AMD revenue drops 9% as PC chip sales decline sharply

AMD's report comes as the PC industry is in a deep slump, with shipments dropping 30% in the first quarter, according to IDC.

www.cnbc.com

"AMD revenue drops 9% as PC chip sales decline sharply"

"AMD’s report comes as the PC industry is in a deep slump, with shipments dropping 30% in the first quarter, according to IDC."


Huh? 7950X was $699 at launch. As I said, a potential 24C Zen5 (whether there will be such a CPU or not) should be priced the same, i.e. $699 and not $999. And 16C Zen5 lower.

AMD had stayed on max 16C for standard desktop for far too long. They're going to be run over by Intel soon in MT perf if they do not increase core count. They need to bump core count just like they did with Zen (8C) and Zen2 (16C). AMD has stagnated since then.


Of course Zen5 have better perf than Zen4. Why release it otherwise?

But people are not prepared to pay the amount of money for it that you think. They'll buy Zen3/Zen4 or Intel instead. Also, Zen5 will soon after release be competing with Intel Arrow Lake (8P + 32E), which potentially will stomp on Zen5 in MT workloads.

OTOH since AM5 and DDR5 is now cheaper than it was around Zen 4 launch AMD charging more for the CPU will just put the platform cost for new builders around the same level. Given the competition will also be on a new platform the total board + ram + CPU cost may not be as far apart as it was for Zen4 Vs Raptor Lake.

Also if the performance jump is 30% plenty of people who did go Zen4 will be willing to upgrade even with higher cpu prices because they no longer have the rest of the platform to buy.

Same thing happened with 5800X3D, $450 at launch was a lot but for people who already had AM4 it was the most economical way to get top tier gaming performance.

 

[adroc_thurston]

That's pretty bold.

They can, so they will.

I think it'll be a return to the Zen 3 pricing where the 5950X was selling at $799.99

Ehhh, that was baby mode.
Perf gap wasn't as big as we're dealing with here.

"AMD revenue drops 9% as PC chip sales decline sharply"

"AMD’s report comes as the PC industry is in a deep slump, with shipments dropping 30% in the first quarter, according to IDC."

Where does this say "desktop"?

As I said, a potential 24C Zen5 (whether there will be such a CPU or not) should be priced the same, i.e. $699 and not $999. And 16C Zen5 lower.

Why would they sell more silicon for less, when competition shotgunned itself?
There's no free lunch; Zen5 is da best, and you're gonna pay for it da best money you have.

AMD had stayed on max 16C for standard desktop for far too long.

For a long while more.

They're going to be run over by Intel soon in MT perf

Absolutely irrelevant.
ST perf is king.
2ch is fairly limiting for pushing nT perf outside of cinememe, but Zen5 cinememe perf is off the charts anyway.

with Intel Arrow Lake (8P + 32E

No such thing.
ARL-S is just 8161.

which potentially will stomp on Zen5 in MT workloads.

It'll be a lot slower in 1t so it's dead.

 

[A///]

A lot, lot more expensive.

Does this suggest a higher cache size or faster cache?

 

[H433x0n]

Ehhh, that was baby mode.
Perf gap wasn't as big as we're dealing with here.

Hold on, you're saying that Zen 5 will outperform ARL by a wider margin than Zen 3 outperformed RKL?

Just from the memory bandwidth advantages alone it should be more competitive than that. ARL will run DDR5-6400 JEDEC and should implement DDR5 CKD (client clock driver).

 

[adroc_thurston]

Does this suggest a higher cache size or faster cache?

Just a bigger CCD and yea, faster caches too to feed the creature.

Hold on, you're saying that Zen 5 will outperform ARL by a wider margin than Zen 3 outperformed RKL?

Oh hell yea.
Kek.

Just from the memory bandwidth advantages alone it

Man we're so back to 2006.
Unbelievable.

ARL will run DDR5-6400 JEDEC and should implement DDR5 CKD (client clock driver).

Well that's about as irrelevant as it could ever be.
Someone's gotta make good cores first.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Absolutely irrelevant.
ST perf is king.
2ch is fairly limiting for pushing nT perf outside of cinememe, but Zen5 cinememe perf is off the charts anyway.

No such thing.
ARL-S is just 8161.

It'll be a lot slower in 1t so it's dead.

You're incorrectly assuming everyone just cares about ST perf and not MT perf.

Regarding ARL-S, not sure what you mean by "just 8161", and what you're trying to say with that? Instead instead see this, where several sources mention 8P + 32E for ARL-S.

If AMD releases an 8950X with just 16C at $999 or even $699, they're gonna have back track on that with their tail between their legs. Just like they had to with 7950X which was released at $699, but soon after release had to be dropped to $569 when market reality hit them in the face.

 

[itsmydamnation]

Memory bandwidth is irrelevant for 1t and CB*