Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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Geddagod

Golden Member
Dec 28, 2021
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Ehhhhhh not in server
Gigachad desktop users vs virgin server users lol
Zen 1 was released in 2017, and there has been 5 gen of zen since, and every performance uplift has been increasing since the last.
This is sounding a lot like "looking at multiple generations of chips for patterns to predict future generations" and not a whole lot of "look at my 7950x going zoom"
Even if you ignore all that, Mike's comment about zen 5 should at least be something to be addressed.
Reminds me a lot of Kellers statement about the future of Intel's archs after SNC. Or the chief architect of GLC hyping up Intel's future cores after RPL. Breaking news! Companies chief architects hyping up future products?
There were also rumors about the excitement behind the scene about zen 5, this has been addressed multiple times already.
I literally just explained how false that was in my previous comment. Addressed multiple times already my butt
Also, 12900k 13900k 14900k are the same damn thing and it's factually wrong to claim otherwise.
Um Akshually, 13900k uses a new core, new die, and is a pretty good bump over the 12900k.
I love how confident you are about this tho lol. Factually wrong lmaooo
The false equivalence in this case is about the rate of which intel and amd churning out performance upgrades with each gen is not the same.
No... no... my 12 SPR WS CPUs and 8 13900k's destroy cinebench btw, obviously this means that EMR is going to be a 690% jump over SPR!
So, people are not allowed an opinion unless they can prove it ?
Maybe next time say "source: my foot"
It's fine if you don't have proof lol, just don't pretend like you do
Go back to your Intel thread.
Nah, I don't dip from threads cuz I get bullied by the threads members like some other people ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I could be wrong about Zen 5, but my gut tells me its going to be good.
What a low value and useless comment. But whatever lol. I was just making a joke about your previous comment, not that deep

I'm awaiting my ban, mod team

Moderation call outs are not allowed, and neither is trolling/flamebaiting -AT Moderator Shmee
 
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itsmydamnation

Platinum Member
Feb 6, 2011
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Bad argument. GLC only got a 15% jump in server lmao. And SNC got 18% IIRC. The difference between 18 to 15% is that much lol. Plus, if you believe in the 15% rumor, I doubt you are as likely to believe in the frequency regression rumor as well, at least not a significant frequency regression. And SNC was a frequency regression over SKL, even RKL's 'SNC' version just tied SKL. Plus, the all core frequency regression was seen in both SNC ICL and CYPRC RKL. Also, GLC was technically a Fmax frequency regression over WLC, and that used a better node than WLC to boot (and the node difference there is prob bigger than the one between N4 and N5 for Zen 5 vs Zen 4).
its a very good arguement actually.

lets look at it :
AMD is doing about the same or greater in 1 generations then Intel did in 4!!!!!
how much IPC did intel get from skylake lake to GC in SPEC int. how much did AMD get going from Zen1 to Zen4 , Now do we really think that the same teams that got ~40% IPC from Zen1 to Zen4 while fundamentally keeping the same width / size core ( bones as Jim. K calls them ) will only get 15% IPC with such big resource increases ignoring all the other general improvements to prefetch / predict / etc ?



I am willing to take BETS!
 

Geddagod

Golden Member
Dec 28, 2021
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its a very good arguement actually.

lets look at it :
AMD is doing about the same or greater in 1 generations then Intel did in 4!!!!!
how much IPC did intel get from skylake lake to GC in SPEC int. how much did AMD get going from Zen1 to Zen4 , Now do we really think that the same teams that got ~40% IPC from Zen1 to Zen4 while fundamentally keeping the same width / size core ( bones as Jim. K calls them ) will only get 15% IPC with such big resource increases ignoring all the other general improvements to prefetch / predict / etc ?
View attachment 87062


I am willing to take BETS!
Two words : diminishing returns
You could actually make a similar argument that GLC expanded the core in many places more than SNC did over SKL, and yet GLC's IPC increase is lower than, or as good as, SNC was over SKL.
I would also caution on comparing gen on gen gains in two different companies with their different respective architectures. But I don't have a degree in CE, so idk lol
But also, 4 archs? CNL didn't improve much at all, and SKL>SNC>GLC was 2 arch jumps.

Lastly, I just want to add just looking at structure size and calculating percentage increases doesn't tell the whole story of a CPU arch. If you did that with GLC vs Zen 4, one would naively assume GLC is drastically stronger than Zen 4. It sure would look like it, GLC often outclasses Zen 4 in many structure sizes. But that's not true, is it?
 

Thunder 57

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2007
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Gigachad desktop users vs virgin server users lol

This is sounding a lot like "looking at multiple generations of chips for patterns to predict future generations" and not a whole lot of "look at my 7950x going zoom"

Reminds me a lot of Kellers statement about the future of Intel's archs after SNC. Or the chief architect of GLC hyping up Intel's future cores after RPL. Breaking news! Companies chief architects hyping up future products?

I literally just explained how false that was in my previous comment. Addressed multiple times already my butt

Um Akshually, 13900k uses a new core, new die, and is a pretty good bump over the 12900k.
I love how confident you are about this tho lol. Factually wrong lmaooo

No... no... my 12 SPR WS CPUs and 8 13900k's destroy cinebench btw, obviously this means that EMR is going to be a 690% jump over SPR!

Maybe next time say "source: my foot"
It's fine if you don't have proof lol, just don't pretend like you do

Nah, I don't dip from threads cuz I get bullied by the threads members like some other people ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

What a low value and useless comment. But whatever lol. I was just making a joke about your previous comment, not that deep

I'm awaiting my ban, mod team

I'm fairly certain you won't get banned for having an opinion. Nice try though.

Not saying I don't think a massive IPC increase is impossible... but there's plenty of reasons for people to remain skeptical.

I think the days of a massive IPC increase are over, unless the previous uarch was bad. Say Pentium 4 or Bulldozer bad.

That said, if the rumors about Zen 5 are true, I am still sticking to 22-23% IPC improvement. It will depend on the task, of course. I can't wait to find out more info on Zen 5 and Arrow Lake. Competition is good.
 
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Goop_reformed

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Sep 23, 2023
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Not saying I don't think a massive IPC increase is impossible... but there's plenty of reasons for people to remain skeptical.
To which I completely agree. However, as mentioned earlier, past actions serve as the most reliable indicators of future ones. Zen was initially conceived with the intention of a highly streamlined, compact, and exceptionally scalable cores. Zen 1, 1+, 2, 3, and 4 are all that. Zen 5 seems to go wide, however, which is a different design philosophy aim toward high efficiency, which is 100% in line with the industry. When complexity and difficulty go way up, the only obvious winning move is to be highly efficient. Intel's approach with sky high clock is obviously the wrong approach, as demonstrated with 3 gens of golden coves. And from what's been leaked so far, arrow lake seems to be doing the opposite of that. Therefore, zen 5 having a massive ipc increase should be possible given of increasingly rapid development of amd's financial and engineering capabilities, and frankly it should be expected as much.
 
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Goop_reformed

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Sep 23, 2023
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I'm fairly certain you won't get banned for having an opinion. Nice try though.



I think the days of a massive IPC increase are over, unless the previous uarch was bad. Say Pentium 4 or Bulldozer bad.

That said, if the rumors about Zen 5 are true, I am still sticking to 22-23% IPC improvement. It will depend on the task, of course. I can't wait to find out more info on Zen 5 and Arrow Lake. Competition is good.
I think the best days are ahead of us. Intel trimming the fat is a good sign of a healthy competition. Remember when the limited x86 cores ipc uplift narratives was the norm?
 

Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
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Not saying I don't think a massive IPC increase is impossible... but there's plenty of reasons for people to remain skeptical.

The IPC AMD announce across a geomeaned set of workloads and specint 1t can also be very different. If they do that again with a similar mix of workloads to the Zen3 announcement I would not be surprised if the stated IPC uplift is more like 20-25%.

When AMD 1st announced Zen4 and had that >5Ghz, >15% ST uplift slide people went off the deep end then when reviews came it was significantly better than that with 5.7Ghz clocks and upto 29% 1t performance improvement.

With Zen AMD have a massive habit of under promising and over delivering so if they are saying 15% IPC in some slides somewhere the reality can have a lot of upswing, especially if the metric is for a specific test or limited suite of tests.
 

TESKATLIPOKA

Platinum Member
May 1, 2020
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I think the reference to Dragon Range was that some OEMs are willing to release a product with a pricey CPU.

While, I think, there will still be a nominal Dragon Range successor (put together at minimum cost to AMD), the main effort, and where more money went is Strix Halo, which will likely have the same CPU power (roughly) plus strong GPU.
They are willing to pay, because they will use Dragon Range 3D with a TOP dGPU(4080-4090), so that laptop will have a very high price.

On the other hand, there are 2 problems using 3d cache with Strix Halo.
Price and usefulness.
That IGP won't be as powerful as RTX4080M/4090M, at best 4070M, but @adroc_thurston said It's quite a bit lower, so OEMs can't ask that much for a laptop using It.
For that level of IGP performance the 3D cache won't provide much benefit, so there is no good reason in using It.
 

leoneazzurro

Senior member
Jul 26, 2016
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The IPC AMD announce across a geomeaned set of workloads and specint 1t can also be very different. If they do that again with a similar mix of workloads to the Zen3 announcement I would not be surprised if the stated IPC uplift is more like 20-25%.

When AMD 1st announced Zen4 and had that >5Ghz, >15% ST uplift slide people went off the deep end then when reviews came it was significantly better than that with 5.7Ghz clocks and upto 29% 1t performance improvement.

With Zen AMD have a massive habit of under promising and over delivering so if they are saying 15% IPC in some slides somewhere the reality can have a lot of upswing, especially if the metric is for a specific test or limited suite of tests.
And the point there is that, even if the slides are real, they stated 15%+ for IPC, that is, 15% was the minimum increase across several workloads.
I think that some people do not understand that this is not a Zen1 to Zen2 adjustment. This is an upgrade on the same scale of what Intel did going from Comet Lake to Alder Lake. I am not saying we will see a +30% 1t performance uplift everywhere, but also the ones thinking a +15% IPC AND clock regression is all what AMD can achieve from such a overhaul should think twice.
 

Geddagod

Golden Member
Dec 28, 2021
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One word Axx
Is that even a word lol, and what?
Intel P cores are the outlying uarch when considering available consumer cores.
Oh ye because we have so many data points for "available consumer cores"? Only AMD matches Intel in clock speed, and the rest of the "high performance" ARM based cores for client is that new Qcom core which isn't released yet, and Apple.
Why wouldn't amd hit ~ apple IPC with a ~ apple sized core in terms of resources?
Spec2017 testing, Firestorm is ~ 25% faster than Zen 4 in Int and FP.
But ye, even if Zen 5 has "apple sized core in terms of resources" , Zen 5 might have more pipeline stages than firestorm, or it can have higher latency parts in the core itself. It's easier to design lower cycle latency stuff when your clock speed is lower. An example of that is firestorm having a massive 128KB L1D with 3 cycle latency, while Zen 3 has 1/4 the capacity and still has an extra cycle of latency. So just bcuz u have giant structures, doesn't mean you get the same IPC. There's way more that goes on in a core's arch than just how big your ROB is or how wide your decoder is. I'm not going to pretend ik everything about it either, but that's why I'm putting skepticism on high IPC claims and am not saying just bcuz Zen 5 might match Firestorm in terms of core resources, it will match it in IPC.
Zen5 could be very big( physical) because they will then spend the die space to keep clocks up as well.
It prob will be.

Look, no matter what "angle" you try looking at it, it doesn't look like AMD will manage >30% IPC on average- at least from the arguments you provided. I just explained why the firestorm comparison isn't exactly fair, and to go back to your "Zen 5 increases core resources just as much as Intel did with SKL>GLC", that still won't support the idea of a >30% IPC increase. Looking at the self cited IPC claims for server, of 18 and 15%, you would get a gain of 36%, and that's assuming everything scales perfectly and ignoring any diminishing returns. Plus, even in your graph, you can see Zen 5 doesn't increase all core resources at the same % over SKL>GLC, it's a bit lopsided depending on exactly what structure you look at. And that's even if that cross- company and cross-architecture comparison works (which tbh I don't think it does)...

Again, not saying it's impossible, who knows maybe Zen 5 has some tricks up its sleeves or AMD's engineers are quite literally just built diff lol, but I think remaining skeptical is the best course of action. There's really nothing super compelling yet to show that Zen 5 will bring any of these huge reported >30% IPC claims... esp not on average for most workloads...
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
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I dunno, using 3dmark's average TSE scores, the 6800M is about 10% slower than the desktop 6700 XT. And the 6800M has the full memory bandwidth.

That would also be about the 4070M performance.
STX Halo is designed to compete with 4070 mobile GPUs - 6700 XT desktop performance level.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
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I think it's a bit interesting Intel and AMD both are creating mobile skus that the other company doesn't seem to interested in competing in. ULP LNL for Intel, "mega APU" Strix from AMD.
Arrow Lake mobile CPUs are going to compete with Strix Halo, while not being halo SKU/product.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
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its a very good arguement actually.

lets look at it :
AMD is doing about the same or greater in 1 generations then Intel did in 4!!!!!
how much IPC did intel get from skylake lake to GC in SPEC int. how much did AMD get going from Zen1 to Zen4 , Now do we really think that the same teams that got ~40% IPC from Zen1 to Zen4 while fundamentally keeping the same width / size core ( bones as Jim. K calls them ) will only get 15% IPC with such big resource increases ignoring all the other general improvements to prefetch / predict / etc ?
View attachment 87062


I am willing to take BETS!
The only thing that you are missing is Decode width for Zen 5.

And decode in Zen 5 is 6, 50% increase from 4.
 

JoeRambo

Golden Member
Jun 13, 2013
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Spec2017 testing, Firestorm is ~ 25% faster than Zen 4 in Int and FP.
But ye, even if Zen 5 has "apple sized core in terms of resources" , Zen 5 might have more pipeline stages than firestorm, or it can have higher latency parts in the core itself. It's easier to design lower cycle latency stuff when your clock speed is lower. An example of that is firestorm having a massive 128KB L1D with 3 cycle latency, while Zen 3 has 1/4 the capacity and still has an extra cycle of latency.

This. And also 192L1I vs 32kb on Z4, all backed with 16MB of shared L2 that has just + 50% or so of latency versus AMD's 1MB. So unlike say Intel's GLC, Apple both has massive OoO resources and those resources are not wasted on "hiding" useless IMC subsystem. Your ROB is not full because you are waiting for memory, it is full cause your core is really speculating and executing ahead and that is bound to increase IPC on average.

My prediction for Z5: ~25-30% IPC increase in CB23 style workloads and 15-20% IPC increase in "SPEC int" style workloads, no prediction for SPEC FP due to too many unknowns atm.
 

TESKATLIPOKA

Platinum Member
May 1, 2020
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ARL mobile iGPU is 2.5 times larger than MTL.
You say It like 320EU is already confirmed.
Even If they released It, then don't expect miracles If It's still based on Alchemist architecture.

Arc 580 with 384EU + 256-bit 16gbps looses against N33 by 26% at 1080p, by 20% at 1440p and by 8% at 4K while consuming 1/3 more power despite using the same 6nm process.TPU
This IGP will perform worse than A580.

On the other hand, Strix Halo with 40CU should at least match a 32CU N33 and that would be already a pretty poor result, considering It should offer ~RTX 4070 laptop level of performance.

My conclusion is that Arrow Lake would lose significantly unless we compare RT.
 
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Doug S

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Feb 8, 2020
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Spec2017 testing, Firestorm is ~ 25% faster than Zen 4 in Int and FP.
But ye, even if Zen 5 has "apple sized core in terms of resources" , Zen 5 might have more pipeline stages than firestorm, or it can have higher latency parts in the core itself. It's easier to design lower cycle latency stuff when your clock speed is lower. An example of that is firestorm having a massive 128KB L1D with 3 cycle latency, while Zen 3 has 1/4 the capacity and still has an extra cycle of latency. So just bcuz u have giant structures, doesn't mean you get the same IPC. There's way more that goes on in a core's arch than just how big your ROB is or how wide your decoder is. I'm not going to pretend ik everything about it either, but that's why I'm putting skepticism on high IPC claims and am not saying just bcuz Zen 5 might match Firestorm in terms of core resources, it will match it in IPC.

Yes this 100%

I'm not sure where the argument of "spend like Apple does for Apple like IPC figures" comes from, when they have such different targets for clock rate and power draw. And it isn't like spending more money directly translates into better results. See The Mythical Man Month or Brooks' Law - that's about software projects not hardware design but I'm pretty sure it still applies.

Even with equally good teams it is by definition more difficult to achieve IPC of "x" at 6 GHz than it is at 4 GHz, because all levels of memory are 50% further away in terms of number of cycles. There's a limit to how much latency your pipeline or ROB can cover up. Each cycle can do less work - fewer FO4 delays per cycle means something like a BTB lookup or stage of a multiply instruction has less time to complete and may need an extra cycle or two.

Now if you burn more power you can make your cache a bit faster, and if you burn more power by using DIMMs rather than LPDDR5 you have less memory latency, and designs targeting PCs rather than phones can afford that extra power. There's nothing you can do about less work per pipeline stage though, that's the tradeoff you make by targeting higher frequencies.
 

itsmydamnation

Platinum Member
Feb 6, 2011
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Yes this 100%

I'm not sure where the argument of "spend like Apple does for Apple like IPC figures" comes from, when they have such different targets for clock rate and power draw. And it isn't like spending more money directly translates into better results. See The Mythical Man Month or Brooks' Law - that's about software projects not hardware design but I'm pretty sure it still applies.
It came from people who can't read/comprehend. I Said same amount of resources which would result in a bigger core then apple Axx to maintain high clock rate.

Like by people's logic zen4 should exist because a7x doesn't clock as high with about the same level of resources for the same level of IPC.

Also re pipeline stages , zen4 isn't particularly long , execution latency isn't particularly high and it has a uop cache, store pipeline kind of irrelevant ...

Everyone willing to nay say but no one's willing to take the wager
 

randomhero

Member
Apr 28, 2020
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It came from people who can't read/comprehend. I Said same amount of resources which would result in a bigger core then apple Axx to maintain high clock rate.

Like by people's logic zen4 should exist because a7x doesn't clock as high with about the same level of resources for the same level of IPC.

Also re pipeline stages , zen4 isn't particularly long , execution latency isn't particularly high and it has a uop cache, store pipeline kind of irrelevant ...

Everyone willing to nay say but no one's willing to take the wager
Some posts remind me of Zen1 prelaunch discussions, when AMD could not match broadwell/skylake because reasons.
Now also AMD cannot match Apple because reasons.
 
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