Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

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Josh128

Senior member
Oct 14, 2022
873
1,357
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Well AFAIR, Zen5 was supposed to be N3(B). N3B failure made them port it to N4P.

So N4P wasn't a conservative choice at all, just fallback. The argument against N2 for Zen6 just falls to oblivion IMO.
Thats pure rumor, and its 99% hogwash. Zen5C IS N3 and was always planned to be. Zen 5 was always going to be N5 or N4. To do otherwise would be to break AMDs cadence since the beginning of Zen:

Zen 1: 14nm
Zen +: 12nm (14nm+)

Zen 2: 7nm
Zen 3: 7nm

Zen 4: 5nm
Zen 5: 4nm (5nm+)

Zen 5C: 3nm
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
2,198
1,885
106
Well AFAIR, Zen5 was supposed to be N3(B). N3B failure made them port it to N4P.

So N4P wasn't a conservative choice at all, just fallback. The argument against N2 for Zen6 just falls to oblivion IMO.
Lol what so TSMC screwed over Intel 🤣 cause you need to know these things in advanced but I doubt it. It can be that 5C was supposed to be N3B and than stuff happened and they moved it to 3E.
On-die USB4 would be nice so we can stop wasting x4 pcie 5.0 lanes for an x2 pcie 4.0 USB4 controller.

I want my two dedicated cpu m.2 slots back.
You still need retimers for both starting next year Intel is getting rid of retimers and PD everything is getting integrated into SoC with Nova Lake 🤣.
 

OneEng2

Senior member
Sep 19, 2022
572
811
106
Not really, they got a better node in the end.
It certainly got them deeper into the red faster than ANY other process available on Earth at that time.

There seems to be a lack of acknowledgement around here that building the best processor in the world doesn't matter at all if you go bankrupt doing it. Now our friends at Intel used the most expensive tech on Earth and STILL didn't produce the best processor in the world.

The other point being missed is that process density improvements are becoming less and less while packaging improvements are a much bigger deal.

Many here still believe that it only makes sense to use one huge monolithic die because (after all) that is the best way to maximize performance.

Pat G seemed to have this same blind spot. It kinda still feels like Intel in general still does as well.

Should AMD produce an N3P Zen 6 that clobbers Nova Lake and Panther Lake as well as maintaining the lead in DC (on N2), I doubt that Intel will survive in its current form.

FWIW, this is exactly what I expect will happen.

On a positive note, I saw Intel released some new packaging design. Better late than never. This is where AMD was back with Zen 2. Still, Zen 3 was such a huge success because AMD overcame the issues with splitting the die up with good design and improvements in packaging. Same thing for X3D.

None of these great advances from AMD had much to do with lithography shrinks IMO. It's a good thing too because lithography shrinks aren't amounting to crap these days. Spend 20 BILLION dollars and get 15% more density. Pretty sad ROI.
 
Reactions: Tlh97 and marees

adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
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It certainly got them deeper into the red faster than ANY other process available on Earth at that time.
that's because they have competitively lower margins and have to run a fab roadmap while not using them much atm.
None of these great advances from AMD had much to do with lithography shrinks IMO.
Yeah they did, Zen2 and Zen4 benefited massively from TSM process shrinks.
Honestly your fuhrerbunker rants are kinda weird. Like you don't get it.
 

OneEng2

Senior member
Sep 19, 2022
572
811
106
that's because they have competitively lower margins and have to run a fab roadmap while not using them much atm.
I'm sure they planned all along to have negative margins and that the 20bn cost of 18A had nothing to do with it.

I'm sure that paying out the nose for N3B also had nothing to do with it.

I don't see how any company can bet on lithography advancements alone anymore. Pure muscle isn't the only way to win a fight.
Yeah they did, Zen2 and Zen4 benefited massively from TSM process shrinks.
Honestly your fuhrerbunker rants are kinda weird. Like you don't get it.
AMD benefited massively from abandoning the mantra "Real Men Have Fabs". Intel would be wise to abandon it as well ..... albeit now seems a little too late.

AMD is ALSO benefiting from a PROFITABLE business model that does not rely on using the most expensive process and having the largest die size on the market. Again, Intel could learn much from what AMD has done.

AMD wasn't always so smart though. They also once thought to profit through lithography and vertical integration. Yea, we all know how that went. AMD didn't have the volume or the resources to make a competitive vertical integrated model work. Neither does Intel.

Honestly, your blatant lack of evidence for any of your statements are kinda wierd.
 

adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
5,741
7,995
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I'm sure they planned all along to have negative margins and that the 20bn cost of 18A had nothing to do with it.
YES.
I'm sure that paying out the nose for N3B also had nothing to do with it.
Nope. Design teams at Intel are free to use whatever's the best tool for the job.
AMD is ALSO benefiting from a PROFITABLE business model that does not rely on using the most expensive process and having the largest die size on the market
They do use the most expensive process and the most Si where it matters (like GPGPU).
AMD wasn't always so smart though. They also once thought to profit through lithography and vertical integration. Yea, we all know how that went. AMD didn't have the volume or the resources to make a competitive vertical integrated model work. Neither does Intel.
none of that was an issue, they just couldn't execute well.
Why do you believe that AMD will now suddenly change?
Because Zen5 was all N3 until N3 got late.
 

itsmydamnation

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2011
3,035
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The funny thing is if Zen5 was supposed to be on 3nm then AMD still is pushing the mid size core route, like the surprisingly small PRF to ALU ratio in a way make more sense at 3nm if you are targetting a smallish/sweet spot core. The bigger 4nm core size they might as well pushed a larger PRF to offset the clock loss and they are already at a bigger core size then target so just go bigger again .
 

Josh128

Senior member
Oct 14, 2022
873
1,357
106
So we're heading towards TSMC monopoly, with China<->Taiwan war risk included in the deal, and no second source.
Taiwan doesnt really matter. In 5 years, Chinas SMIC will have caught up and/or surpassed TSMC. Mark those words.

Huang admitted that China is already a major competitor in AI with their own home grown stuff. Theres no stopping them outside of them collapsing or WW3.

 
Reactions: 511

Josh128

Senior member
Oct 14, 2022
873
1,357
106
That attitude is exactly why when it happens, ignorant people in the west will be shocked and bewildered. Chinas manufacturing arm is already the most advanced on the planet, and by a long shot. They will apply the same laser focus and direction of the last 10 years to the next 10 for AI and semiconductor production. You think they just shat out an AI solution that already competes with Blackwell because they "got lucky"? Do you think you know better than Huang himself? Huawei is a force to be reckoned with, with the full backing of the CCP.

Lmao indeed.

Huawei's technology, based on our best understanding at the moment, is probably comparable to an H200.

They've been moving quite fast. They've also offered this new system called Cloud Matrix, which scales up to even a larger system than our latest generation, Grace Blackwell. Huawei, as you know, is a formidable technology company. And they're not sitting still.

They look for ways to compete, and they're quite formidable.

- Jen-Hsun Huang
 
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