Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

[Kepler_L2]

It wasnt.

It was

 

[OneEng2]

So we're heading towards TSMC monopoly, with China<->Taiwan war risk included in the deal, and no second source.

Well now there's a actual good point!

In the high end, I believe you are correct though. TSMC is essentially unopposed on the high end of Lithography.... and that is a national security problem for the USA.

 

[DavidC1]

So we're heading towards TSMC monopoly, with China<->Taiwan war risk included in the deal, and no second source.

So with both sides having enough nukes to kill everyone multiple times over, and tensions greatest in many decades, the biggest worry is who gets the most fancy computer chips?

Priorities.

 

[Thunder 57]

Taiwan doesnt really matter. In 5 years, Chinas SMIC will have caught up and/or surpassed TSMC. Mark those words.

Huang admitted that China is already a major competitor in AI with their own home grown stuff. Theres no stopping them outside of them collapsing or WW3.

We all know China's MO regarding IP. Or throwing money at Chinese DRAM manufacturers so they sell at a loss and hope Samsung, Hynix, and Micron go under to create a monopoly. When China develops something truly impressive that can match or beat western designs I will believe they are a real competitor.

 

[adroc_thurston]

That attitude is exactly why when it happens

well no, it's just that we euros decide who gets to fab what.
It's our divine mandate.

It was

View attachment 124597

dayum brotha, ain't no way anyone here was supposed to see the og og Strix from 2021

When China develops something truly impressive that can match or beat western designs I will believe they are a real competitor.

Well they did, YMTC NAND is very good.
but it also costs real money so in the end they're just a strong competitor.

 

[OneEng2]

Because they will

Wow. You got me there. How can I possibly argue with such a master of debate?

@adroc_thurston

Sounds to me like you are perfect for the strategic direction team at Intel. Of course, it might be a very short tenure as these ideas are quickly resulting in bankruptcy.

I believe that the only reason AMD would use N2 for its client products for Zen 6 is if it believes it will not be competitive with Intel's new processors. Even then, I am not so sure. AMD need only supplement its profits in the DC with N2 and it could survive a loss in performance to Nova Lake and Panther Lake. Intel on the other hand can not hold it's financial breath much longer and will not be able to make payroll at the pace it has been losing money. AMD just needs to continue making money and let Intel blead itself out at this point in time.

In other words, I don't see any reason that AMD would use N2 for client.

I hear tell that you are a good looser though and that you readily admit when you are wrong, so when AMD releases Zen 6 next year we can revisit this thread eh?

 

[OneEng2]

It was

View attachment 124597

And where exactly is this from? It seriously looks like something a grade school kid put together in power point.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I believe that the only reason AMD would use N2 for its client products for Zen 6 is if it believes it will not be competitive with Intel's new processors. Even then, I am not so sure. AMD need only supplement its profits in the DC with N2 and it could survive a loss in performance to Nova Lake and Panther Lake. Intel on the other hand can not hold it's financial breath much longer and will not be able to make payroll at the pace it has been losing money. AMD just needs to continue making money and let Intel blead itself out at this point in time.

see, your fuhrerbunker rants have no relation to reality, where non-poverty client Z6 is N2p with 17ML and MiM.
and it's all on fancy 2.5D substrates. Enjoy!

 

[OneEng2]

So with both sides having enough nukes to kill everyone multiple times over, and tensions greatest in many decades, the biggest worry is who gets the most fancy computer chips?

Priorities.

Even without nukes, such a confrontation would create a global depression so bad it would make 2008 look like a great time to be alive.

 

[OneEng2]

see, your fuhrerbunker rants have no relation to reality, where non-poverty client Z6 is N2p with 17ML and MiM.
and it's all on fancy 2.5D substrates. Enjoy!

This is what happens when you feed the troll.

 

[adroc_thurston]

This is what happens when you feed the troll.

I get it 5 stages of grief and all, but it is what it is.
Z6 is N2p and it's all very boring by the numbers.

 

[Thunder 57]

well no, it's just that we euros decide who gets to fab what.
It's our divine mandate.

dayum brotha, ain't no way anyone here was supposed to see the og og Strix from 2021

Well they did, YMTC NAND is very good.
but it also costs real money so in the end they're just a strong competitor.

I had to look it up, and it looks like they do make good NAND. But, as you would say, that is a commodity. Show me a CPU or GPU that can compete.

And where exactly is this from? It seriously looks like something a grade school kid put together in power point.

I wouldn't doubt @Kepler_L2.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I had to look it up, and it looks like they do make good NAND. But, as you would say, that is a commodity

Not just a commodity, NAND is also relatively easy to fab since litho is not the bottleneck there.

Show me a CPU or GPU that can compete.

Yeaaa IP is hard.
Huawei/HiSilicon had some interesting stuff now and then, but their server CPUs are just kinda *bad*.

 

[branch_suggestion]

That attitude is exactly why when it happens, ignorant people in the west will be shocked and bewildered. Chinas manufacturing arm is already the most advanced on the planet, and by a long shot. They will apply the same laser focus and direction of the last 10 years to the next 10 for AI and semiconductor production. You think they just shat out an AI solution that already competes with Blackwell because they "got lucky"? Do you think you know better than Huang himself? Huawei is a force to be reckoned with, with the full backing of the CCP.

Lmao indeed.

Jensen is overstating their capabilities to push his vested interest in bringing NV sales back to CN, not very complicated.
The only way they can compete, assuming they are even allowed to sell much outside of CN is through commodity margins (<20%) through each step of the supply chain, instead of the 50%+ margins of a typical DC supply chain.
Thing is the colossal CapEx does not go away, the CCP will have to subsidise the everloving hell out of it.
In technical aspects with actual products and yields, they are 5-10 years behind, especially now that their EDA tools are being yoinked which is another big moat to cross.
And in no way is the cloud memetrix close in any way to even HGX Blackwell when you consider how much space the thing takes up and the power requirements etc.
Networking too is a huge headache for them.

 

[511]

see, your fuhrerbunker rants have no relation to reality, where non-poverty client Z6 is N2p with 17ML and MiM.
and it's all on fancy 2.5D substrates. Enjoy!

This is going to be expensive lol same with Nova Lake I am seeing $1000 CPUs for 26C zen 6 and 52 Core NVL.

I wouldn't doubt @Kepler_L2.

Except for the 40% where he meant that they used their freaking compilers to measure the optimal code emitted for Z5 . Yes I would not.

This brings me to an interesting question @Kepler_L2 NVL vs Zen 6 how good this will be in terms of competition?

 

[marees]

And where exactly is this from? It seriously looks like something a grade school kid put together in power point.

From chinese forums

The partial AMD roadmap, which originated from China, claims that AMD will market its Zen 5 processors under the Ryzen 8000 branding, with both mainstream Ryzen processors and APUs reportedly uniting under the Ryzen 8000 branding umbrella. The rumored codenames for Ryzen 8000 chips and APUs are Granite Ridge and Strix Point, respectively.


ExecutableFix, a hardware leaker with a solid record, believes that Zen 5 is based on the 3nm process node. Given AMD's long-lasting relationship with TSMC, it's very likely that Zen 5 will tap into the foundry's 3nm (N3) manufacturing process. Then again, Samsung also has its own 3nm process node, so it'll be interesting to see whether the South Korean giant can woo AMD away from TSMC.

AMD's Zen 5 CPUs, APUs Will Likely Tap TSMC's 3nm Process Node

Cutting-edge CPU on a cutting-edge node

www.tomshardware.com

 

[RnR_au]

Huawei is a force to be reckoned with, with the full backing of the CCP.

China doesn't have anything like ASML. There is a reason as to why ASML is enjoying a monopoly... executing at this level of leading edge manufacturing is so very very hard and costly.

Don't get me wrong. China is very strong in AI atm, but in silicon processes and related IP's, they are far behind.

 

[511]

They will steal stuff from Japanese Koreans and ASML for their speciality if they can't make it.

 

[itsmydamnation]

They will steal stuff from Japanese Koreans and ASML for their speciality if they can't make it.

AL31 buddy AL31........

 

[adroc_thurston]

They will steal stuff from Japanese Koreans and ASML for their speciality if they can't make it.

You can't 'steal' ASML.
You have to cross-breed specific Germanic haplotypes to get Zeiss opticians.

 

[511]

AL31 buddy AL31........

Didn't get the reference 😅

 

[itsmydamnation]

Didn't get the reference 😅

the CCP had to keep buying AL-31's from Russia because even though they had 1000's of them in country they couldn't successfully copy them let alone improve by themselves up until like the late 20 teens. The AL-31 is from 1980........

 

[branch_suggestion]

You have to cross-breed specific Germanic haplotypes to get Zeiss opticians.

And just like all functioning Germanic peoples, they are subservient to a higher power, for now America but who knows what the future holds. My money is on Poland.

 

[adroc_thurston]

And just like all functioning Germanic peoples, they are subservient to a higher power, for now America but who knows what the future holds. My money is on Poland.

Lmao Merz be upon ye.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Taiwan doesnt really matter. In 5 years, Chinas SMIC will have caught up and/or surpassed TSMC. Mark those words.

Nah. Even if SMIC is going to catch up, it's gonna take longer than that. The CCP will need to piss away a lot more money on R&D, money they may not have available for much longer.

Theres no stopping them outside of them collapsing

Always an option!