Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

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Doug S

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2020
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Yep. Interesting to observe how quickly a PCIe 6.0 -> 7.0 shift might take place.

PCIe 6's doubled frequency is going to make board design a little harder. PCIe 7's doubling it again will make it a LOT harder. Expect to pay more and more for boards that actually provide you PCIe 6 let alone PCIe 7 slots.

It will be interesting to see what route they take for 8. Unless they go optical I don't see another doubling in three years. They may shoot a bit lower and go from 128 GT/s to 200 GT/s to match the bit rates ethernet and infiniband are using.
 

Joe NYC

Diamond Member
Jun 26, 2021
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they can always pack at Intel who has a bunch of advanced packing capacity lying around lol so much that they stopped the expansion.

It seems that Intel has mostly the wrong type of packaging for mass market.
 

Joe NYC

Diamond Member
Jun 26, 2021
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I think there's some confusion on that whole topic.

We are talking consoles. "Real" consoles are a piece of mass market hardware that aims to sell 100+ million in a life cycle that usually spans 5+ years. Steam Deck is far far from that, PC handhelds are far far far from that.

With this kind of mass market hardware you don't want to use off the shelf hardware. You want to cost optimize the hardware upfront to have as little cost as possible during the whole life cycle. You want your hardware to bespoke or you are doing it wrong. Microsoft got burned by that with the original gen XBox which they couldn't stop manufacturing quickly enough for that very reason.

AMD has used monolithic for mobile, to keep the costs down, but is already expected to go with chiplets with high end mobile.

So there is a resistance posed by big die sizes (yields) especially on more costly process, and increased complexity of validating a huge die.

We will see what emerges, and also when.

For AMD it's free money. They get all the money to do all that necessary upfront work. With it they can hire more staff for that if necessary.

Microsoft is doing it wrong if it is selling too few consoles for the upfront cost to be worth it. Games sell consoles. Microsoft bought plenty of popular gaming IPs they could look at making good/better/any use of before considering launching their next console gen.

That pool of talent is not endless. There are opportunity costs. Up to half a trillion projected AI market size.

Do you think AMD would rather have them hand crafting 4 bespoke console dies rather than introduce some efficiency in design, commonality, sharing of IP and as result less staff dedicated to it, and then use the saved human resources in datacenter GPUs, where the big bucks are?

Microsoft, in particular, might welcome lower upfront design costs that could emerge from greater commonality and sharing of resources. Because, who knows if Microsoft will be able to sell enough units to justify the expense.

It would not surprise me if this was not the pitch AMD used, since Microsoft was (apparently) shopping around quite extensively.
 
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marees

Golden Member
Apr 28, 2024
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AMD has used monolithic for mobile, to keep the costs down, but is already expected to go with chiplets with high end mobile.

So there is a resistance posed by big die sizes (yields) especially on more costly process, and increased complexity of validating a huge die.

We will see what emerges, and also when.



That pool of talent is not endless. There are opportunity costs. Up to half a trillion projected AI market size.

Do you think AMD would rather have them hand crafting 4 bespoke console dies rather than introduce some efficiency in design, commonality, sharing of IP and as result less staff dedicated to it, and then use the saved human resources in datacenter GPUs, where the big bucks are?

Microsoft, in particular, might welcome lower upfront design costs that could emerge from greater commonality and sharing of resources. Because, who knows if Microsoft will be able to sell enough units to justify the expense.

It would not surprise me if this was not the pitch AMD used, since Microsoft was (apparently) shopping around quite extensively.
What is the max AM6/AM5 APU we are talking of here ?
  1. 12 core zen 6 CPU CCD ?
  2. 16+ CU RDNA 5 IOD ??
 

Joe NYC

Diamond Member
Jun 26, 2021
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What is the max AM6/AM5 APU we are talking of here ?
  1. 12 core zen 6 CPU CCD ?
  2. 16+ CU RDNA 5 IOD ??

The discussion was about next gen consoles, which are much bigger die sizes that APUs.

Which is why I think it is possible they may go chiplet route...
 

marees

Golden Member
Apr 28, 2024
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The discussion was about next gen consoles, which are much bigger die sizes that APUs.

Which is why I think it is possible they may go chiplet route...
Ok. I thought you were referring to PC Handhelds

Lisa Su let out a statement today on this

 
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adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
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AMD has used monolithic for mobile, to keep the costs down
Not cost. Packaging volume.
So there is a resistance posed by big die sizes (yields) especially on more costly process, and increased complexity of validating a huge die.
TSM is the king of yields. Forget about anything having any yield issues on TSM nodes.
That pool of talent is not endless. There are opportunity costs. Up to half a trillion projected AI market size.
who tf cares, GPGPU guys live in their own separate world where crack is infinite, and pipes aplenty.
Do you think AMD would rather have them hand crafting 4 bespoke console dies
YES.
because they're gonna ship millions of units.
Microsoft, in particular, might welcome lower upfront design costs that could emerge from greater commonality and sharing of resources.
no they don't, it's the same company that commissioned both Van Gogh and Lakefield for a single meme product.



Come on, keep it clean here.

esquared
Anandtech Forum Director
 
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Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
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It’s called semicustom for a reason. Sony and MS will use off the shelf AMD IP (read: logic blocks) to build their custom APUs. It’s not like they are developing a SoC where every major block is new for each customer. Think legos.
 
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Joe NYC

Diamond Member
Jun 26, 2021
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Not cost. Packaging volume.

Companies other than TSMC (such as ASE) can do the this type of packaging (Integrated Fan Out) just fine.

I am not buying that this will forever be capacity constrained.

TSM is the king of yields. Forget about anything having any yield issues on TSM nodes.

Yield is one issue, cost of advanced nodes (where advanced nodes may not be necessary) is another issue.

who tf cares, GPGPU guys live in their own separate world where crack is infinite, and pipes aplenty.

I am pretty sure AMD client GPU division was raided, to some extend, when bringing up Mi300, Mi300x etc was time critical.

Cancellation of N4c may be related.

YES.
because they're gonna ship millions of units.

Divide that volume by 4, to get the volume of console / handheld, Sony / Microsoft.

I get it, 2.5D packaging makes your dick hard, but it ain't happening in the next console gen.

Ok, you got me, I confess.

That may be related to my programming days, and the DRY principle (Don't Repeat Yourself, don't write the same code more than once)
 

adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
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Companies other than TSMC (such as ASE) can do the this type of packaging (Integrated Fan Out) just fine.
InFO is wafer-level, it's permanently capacity-constrained if you want to ship real real volumes.
Yield is one issue, cost of advanced nodes (where advanced nodes may not be necessary) is another issue.
Yield isn't an issue and 2.5D slabs do not make any nodes cheaper.
They're win more things.
I am pretty sure AMD client GPU division was raided, to some extend, when bringing up Mi300, Mi300x etc was time critical.
That happened in 2020 lol.
Cancellation of N4c may be related.
That one died because they thought they couldn't compete.
Imagine such a thing.
Divide that volume by 4, to get the volume of console / handheld, Sony / Microsoft.
Handhelds do not exist. Just boxes.
 

Joe NYC

Diamond Member
Jun 26, 2021
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It’s called semicustom for a reason. Sony and MS will use off the shelf AMD IP (read: logic blocks) to build their custom APUs. It’s not like they are developing a SoC where every major block is new for each customer. Think legos.

The question is if (and to what effect) semi-custom evolves in the age of chiplets.

Really, it has been pretty much NADA from AMD on semicustom front. Many people expected semicustom designs for, perhaps, hyperscalers in datacenter from AMD and AMD delivered exactly zero on this front so far.

Merger with Xilinx renewed expectations for semicustom, but still zero...
 

adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
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The question is if (and to what effect) semi-custom evolves in the age of chiplets.
There is no age of chiplets, the bulk of designs shipped by everyone and anyone are monodies.
Really, it has been pretty much NADA from AMD on semicustom front.
Because it's a console business.
Many people expected semicustom designs for, perhaps, hyperscalers in datacenter from AMD and AMD delivered exactly zero on this front so far.
Why do that when a custom SKU does just fine.
Merger with Xilinx renewed expectations for semicustom
Why would it ever?
 

Joe NYC

Diamond Member
Jun 26, 2021
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InFO is wafer-level, it's permanently capacity-constrained if you want to ship real real volumes.

AMD already tried with RDNA 3, with expectation of much bigger volume that was achieved. So the capacity was there back in 2022.

The actual volume shipped was depressed because of bad cycle in GPU sales and RDNA 3 underwhelming performance.

Yield isn't an issue and 2.5D slabs do not make any nodes cheaper.
They're win more things.

The can substitute cheap node for expensive node, where node scaling is limited or non-existent.

Also, reduce capacity demand on the most advanced node, which is the most likely one to have capacity constraints.

That happened in 2020 lol.

Some of the staff get assigned to new active projects, and other projects, in hibernation lose staff.

I imagine the client semi-custom lost a lot of staff when there were no new projects to work on. So restarting these projects will already have demand on talent.

I don't think AMD is the kind of company (any more) that hires and fires people based on a quarterly report. Intel has become that type of company under Gelsinger.

I think AMD will resist hiring too many people, will try to do more with fewer people.
 

adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
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AMD already tried with RDNA 3
no they didn't, N33 was explicitly changed into N6 monodie because they considered InFO capacity insufficient for serving the mainstream.
The actual volume shipped was depressed because of bad cycle in GPU sales and RDNA 3 underwhelming performance.
No they never inteded to ship InFO in mainsteam. Which is why N33 was an N6 monodie.
The can substitute cheap node for expensive node
No you can't.
Also, reduce capacity demand on the most advanced node
Well good news, N3p is N-1 by the time consoles ship.
Some of the staff get assigned to new active projects, and other projects, in hibernation lose staff.
not how any of that works.
I don't think AMD is the kind of company (any more) that hires and fires people based on a quarterly report. Intel has become that type of company under Gelsinger.
AMD literally did a small round of layoffs last year. wtf are you on.
I think AMD will resist hiring too many people, will try to do more with fewer people.
lmao they swallowed like 6 ML startups in a year.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,600
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Still, at least a small amount of V-cache (even 32MB) would be far better than no V-cache due to the much higher latency of GDDR6/7 RAM used in consoles. The elimination or minimization of CPU idle wait times between accessing data from RAM will help to smooth things over.
That's more for workloads where you aren't sure what your prefetchers have to grab next. Consoles run a limited suite of software where latency can be hidden through clever optimizations. The things you need/want in a desktop or server may not translate well to a dedicated gaming box that only ever runs a handful of different game engines.
 
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