Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

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CouncilorIrissa

Senior member
Jul 28, 2023
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I think that if Zen 6 comes out before Nova Lake, it will be 6.0Ghz .... maybe 6.2Ghz. They may have the headroom, but they will not want to use it. Better to yield higher (and cheaper) than to use headroom you didn't need to best the competition.
No, better to clock higher because you can charge additional $ for these last 3-4% of performance. Whether it comes out before or after is entirely irrelevant. 8 cores being sold for $480 kinda tells that people are willing to pay for a bigger e-peen.

We're talking about the company that sold Zen 2 with unattainable boost clocks outside of noop-maxxing scenarios for Christ's sake. They *will* extract every last MHz.

edit: don't even get me started about Raphael.
 
Last edited:
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Doug S

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2020
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The problem is too many people hear about "x% performance gain" with a new process and they simply multiply the current clock rate with that number in their head and that forms their expectation.

If AMD was porting Zen 5 to a smaller process without changing the number of cores or anything else about the product OK that might come close to being true. Problem is, that's what those percentages from TSMC & Intel are based on - they assume the SAME design, with the same number of transistors. You can use the shiny new process to grant that same design increased performance (and making the transistors x% faster doesn't raise your clock rate by x% either, but that's a whole other thing) or you can use the shiny new process to grant that same design the y% of reduced power usage. Key word being SAME design.

AMD isn't doing the same design when they move to a smaller process. Intel isn't, Apple isn't, Qualcomm isn't. No one is. They are making cores wider and more complex, adding cache, changes from major to minor, changes which make them bigger (in terms of number of transistors even if not in actual physical area) and they are providing more of them per chip. All those extra transistors consume added power which takes from that y% power benefit, leaving less for the x% performance benefit.

What's more, when you have more cores you have to share your overall power budget among more cores. Sure in theory if you had a CPU that could draw 250W and gave 5W per core among its 50 cores it should be able to devote 250W to a single core in a single core load. But no one designs that way, the percentage of overall power a single core is able to draw has declined since the single core days when obviously it could draw 100% of the power, and will continue to decline as we add more and more cores.
 

CouncilorIrissa

Senior member
Jul 28, 2023
656
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The problem is too many people hear about "x% performance gain" with a new process and they simply multiply the current clock rate with that number in their head and that forms their expectation.
This is true; anyone who claims to know how high it'll clock exactly is lying. And those who actually have an idea could never tell without having sued.

If AMD was porting Zen 5 to a smaller process without changing the number of cores or anything else about the product OK that might come close to being true. Problem is, that's what those percentages from TSMC & Intel are based on - they assume the SAME design, with the same number of transistors. You can use the shiny new process to grant that same design increased performance (and making the transistors x% faster doesn't raise your clock rate by x% either, but that's a whole other thing) or you can use the shiny new process to grant that same design the y% of reduced power usage. Key word being SAME design.
Yep, case in point: Zen 4 -> Zen 5 went from N5 to N4P. On paper N4P has 11% perf gain over N5, in reality there's no clock difference because those are different designs.

edit: to clarify, my previous post wasn't arguing against specific clock figures, more against the general idea that order of NVL/Z6 release will in any way meaningfully affect clock speeds. It won't.
 
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adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
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Pretty complicated decode stage if it alone takes up 6 or 7 clocks.
It's the opposite case of opcache being really simple.
Zen1 was 14-19 clocks iirc.
rather on reply with information supporting your incredibly useless one-word-replies.
You don't need more than one word for simple stuff.
Care to explain why competition at the time of launch is irrelevant?
The irrelevant part is downbinning.
It's a trick to hit volume targets, and DIY DT is not a volume-limited market.
The problem is too many people hear about "x% performance gain" with a new process and they simply multiply the current clock rate with that number in their head and that forms their expectation.
That would be true but fin/nanoflex give chip designers a bazillion knobs to squeeze every last ounce of perf.
I'd say that's the biggest change of going to N2.
eyyy that's Mysticial being kinda a dick.
 

Doug S

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2020
3,232
5,567
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That would be true but fin/nanoflex give chip designers a bazillion knobs to squeeze every last ounce of perf.
I'd say that's the biggest change of going to N2.

Yes but the question I keep asking is how easy is that to access? How good is the tool support? How much of that is automated, and how much requires a bunch of manual tweaking - which would imply more verification time/potential issues.

I'm thinking maybe it is more of a gift that gives a little bit a year over five years as tools are improved / designers become more experienced with it rather than one big gift when you go to N3E/N2.
 

Thunder 57

Diamond Member
Aug 19, 2007
3,753
6,338
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The problem is too many people hear about "x% performance gain" with a new process and they simply multiply the current clock rate with that number in their head and that forms their expectation.

If AMD was porting Zen 5 to a smaller process without changing the number of cores or anything else about the product OK that might come close to being true. Problem is, that's what those percentages from TSMC & Intel are based on - they assume the SAME design, with the same number of transistors. You can use the shiny new process to grant that same design increased performance (and making the transistors x% faster doesn't raise your clock rate by x% either, but that's a whole other thing) or you can use the shiny new process to grant that same design the y% of reduced power usage. Key word being SAME design.

AMD isn't doing the same design when they move to a smaller process. Intel isn't, Apple isn't, Qualcomm isn't. No one is. They are making cores wider and more complex, adding cache, changes from major to minor, changes which make them bigger (in terms of number of transistors even if not in actual physical area) and they are providing more of them per chip. All those extra transistors consume added power which takes from that y% power benefit, leaving less for the x% performance benefit.

What's more, when you have more cores you have to share your overall power budget among more cores. Sure in theory if you had a CPU that could draw 250W and gave 5W per core among its 50 cores it should be able to devote 250W to a single core in a single core load. But no one designs that way, the percentage of overall power a single core is able to draw has declined since the single core days when obviously it could draw 100% of the power, and will continue to decline as we add more and more cores.

Don't let @igor_kavinski know, he still wants his Tejas clocked to the moon! I sometimes wonder if he has some secret use case for it .
 

adroc_thurston

Diamond Member
Jul 2, 2023
5,935
8,324
96
Yes but the question I keep asking is how easy is that to access
Looking at how everyone is shipping 3-2 zoomies on N3e, pretty easy.
How much of that is automated, and how much requires a bunch of manual tweaking - which would imply more verification time/potential issues.
TSM very openly advertised Finflex with standard EDA stuff in mind.
I'm thinking maybe it is more of a gift that gives a little bit a year over five years as tools are improved / designers become more experienced with it rather than one big gift when you go to N3E/N2
Oh no, it's not some magic juice, just added flexibility.
 
Jul 27, 2020
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Don't let @igor_kavinski know, he still wants his Tejas clocked to the moon! I sometimes wonder if he has some secret use case for it .
It could be the resonant frequency that harmonizes with my neurons, giving me the clarity I desperately need on what the heck I'm really supposed to be doing on this planet. Never ignore your inner voice. If it sounds crazy, it's because it's beckoning you towards things more fantastic than you could possibly imagine.
 
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DavidC1

Golden Member
Dec 29, 2023
1,553
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Pretty complicated decode stage if it alone takes up 6 or 7 clocks.
Remember this is with uop caches.

For example:
Nehalem had 16 stage pipeline. Then Sandy Bridge introduced a uop cache which increased complexity which adds few stages, but that's on a miss when no data is found in the cache, which makes it 18 cycles. But in a scenario where data is in the cache(or a hit) it goes down to 14 cycles, 2 cycles lower than Nehalem.
 
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MS_AT

Senior member
Jul 15, 2024
704
1,428
96
It's 11-18 and 12-18.
For Zen5 12-18, common 15. The quote from publicly available Software Optimization Guide for the AMD Zen5 microarchitecture
The branch misprediction penalty is in the range from 12 to 18 cycles, depending on the type of mispredicted branch and whether the instructions are being fed from the Op Cache. The common case penalty is 15 cycles.
 
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