Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

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511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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On GPUs, I agree. NVidia is in driver's seat at this time on technology, branding, market share. The revenue upside is also small.

But the roles are reversed in CPU. AMD is ahead on technology, may be surging ahead in branding, and there is a fortune on the table, as far as client revenue to gain.

AMD has been investing heavily in mobile SoCs, to get at this market from different angles. And it is only going to intensify with Zen 6.

It would be silly for AMD to outmuscle Intel in a smaller (1/2 size) CPU datacenter (approaching 50%), and then leave 2x size market (client) on the table.
Keep dreaming not happening for client as for DC we will see it took them 5-6 years to be at 40% in DC and that was with Intel screwing every time until last year which they released a DC product that is genuinely good nor AMD has a volume and are at a Volume constrained TSMC .
They will prioritize wafer for DC.
 
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Josh128

Golden Member
Oct 14, 2022
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You're not getting lower latency.
Lower power? yeah.

That's the only thing you're really getting.

Idle power draw is a real issue with Zen 5, especially dual CCD Zen 5, so hopefully they can make some decent strides there.

Why wouldnt you say Zen 6 is getting lower latency when its increasing CCX size by 50? A hypothetical 11900X (man I really hope they dont call it that) should decimate 9900X in core to core latency by eliminating cross CCD cores. I agree that same CCD core to core latency wont improve, and may actually rise a bit.

The most interesting parts of Zen 6 should be:

1.) 12 core CCX / CCD
2.) MT & ST freq increase due to node shrink (whatever that ends up being)
3.) Fix high idle power draw
4.) Hopefully enhanced memory controller / better 1:1 uclk/memclk speeds / CUDIMM support.

I'd love to see CAMM2 support but I supposed that cant happen till AM6.
 

Makaveli

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2002
4,956
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that's still below from Intel's platform of 10000+ MT/s and extreme 12K+ MT/s also lets not forget ARL by default support DDR5-8000 i will expect the IMC crown with Intel this gen as well.
Yes I see intel keeping this crown as their cpu's benefit more from high memory speeds compared to AMD vcache offerings.

I believe Zen 6 will aim for DDR5 8000 which I hope will be better priced and with decent timings by the time its released.

a 12core CCD + DDR5 8000 would be enough for me to upgrade from my current setup.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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Yes I see intel keeping this crown as their cpu's benefit more from high memory speeds compared to AMD vcache offerings.

I believe Zen 6 will aim for DDR5 8000 which I hope will be better priced and with decent timings by the time its released.
Yes NVL and Zen6 are both DDR5-8000 same for the Servers
a 12core CCD + DDR5 8000 would be enough for me to upgrade from my current setup.
nice
 
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Tuna-Fish

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2011
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They can't use it for supremacy so may as well put it to some research use.

What's old may become new again.

Windows XP could get re-released for the P4 18A's runaway success.

1000 fps in games of that era with modern GPUs!

The CPUs wouldn't be that much faster than they were back then, even if they could run at absurd frequencies today. The P4 was fundamentally pretty bad at hiding memory latency and getting memory-level parallelism. Memory latency has not gone down much at all. Even if all computational instructions were infinitely fast, as in, executed in zero cycles, a P4 core would probably get less than twice as fast on real complex loads like games. Late prescotts were already spending most of their time waiting for memory.
 
Jul 27, 2020
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Late prescotts were already spending most of their time waiting for memory.
An L3 cache and DDR5-6000 CL24 should help things a bit. The last few halo P4 CPUs with HT could overclock to 4.25 GHz even with 65nm process. That means their double pumped FPUs were already clocking above 8 GHz. With some key inefficiencies removed, I bet engineers today could get some good mileage out of the carcass of P4 architecture.
 

Joe NYC

Diamond Member
Jun 26, 2021
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Keep dreaming not happening for client as for DC we will see it took them 5-6 years to be at 40% in DC and that was with Intel screwing every time until last year which they released a DC product that is genuinely good nor AMD has a volume and are at a Volume constrained TSMC .
They will prioritize wafer for DC.

Another dollar for an invalid trade-off argument.

As far as client, it is not going to happen overnight, but AMD is investing in number of designs, in all of the client segments, as if AMD already had 50% of the client market. It is just a question of time until the volume starts rising more dramatically.

Also, Intel is outspending AMD on client marketing (together with OEMs) by huge margin. Maybe 10:1 or more. Who knows how long Intel will be able to afford this level of support for OEMs. Not forever, if the trends continue.
 
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511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
2,761
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Another dollar for an invalid trade-off argument.

As far as client, it is not going to happen overnight, but AMD is investing in number of designs, in all of the client segments, as if AMD already had 50% of the client market. It is just a question of time until the volume starts rising more dramatically.
It's not going to happen now than cause Intel has a challenger to every AMD Product in roadmap including halo in server i can see it happening but will take 2-3 years but in client nope
Also, Intel is outspending AMD on client marketing (together with OEMs) by huge margin. Maybe 10:1 or more. Who knows how long Intel will be able to afford this level of support for OEMs. Not forever, if the trends continue.
Once 18A Products comes online it's gonna be painful for AMD in client with the Supply/Rebates and especially (Made In US tag /s).
 
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Joe NYC

Diamond Member
Jun 26, 2021
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Please don't say stupid things
Demand is still out of supply… Supply is not keeping up with demand
You can find out just by looking at the industry.
What have you seen?

The CoWoS shortage was at its peak in 2023 and 2024. It still persists, to lesser degree but supply is expected to completely catch up with demand by 2026.

The reason CoWoS shortage is talked about less is because suppliers have clear roadmaps to capacity expansion, and increased capacity is steadily coming on line.

While in 2023, it was like "OMG, we will never get all the CoWoS capacity we need"
 

Joe NYC

Diamond Member
Jun 26, 2021
3,214
4,686
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It's not going to happen now than cause Intel has a challenger to every AMD Product in roadmap including halo in server i can see it happening but will take 2-3 years but in client nope

Intel has inferior product in every segment of the server market. It is not good enough to hold > 50% market share this way.

In client, Intel is not as far behind, it is pretty even, especially in mobile, but how do you continue holding 75% of market share with products no better than competition?

The answer is OEM shenanigans, but even that trick is not going to work forever.

Once 18A Products comes online it's gonna be painful for AMD in client with the Supply/Rebates and especially (Made In US tag /s).

It remains to be seen if Intel improves its competitiveness materially
- from Lunar lake on N3? Not much
- from Meteor Lake on Intel 3 and 4, some
- from Raptor Lake - a great deal, theoretically, but Panther Lake cost will be in completely different league than Raptor Lake. The el-cheapo segments where Raptor Lake mobile goes will not be able to afford Panther Lake.

In the meantime, AMD is moving from N4P to N3P and N2P.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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Intel has inferior product in every segment of the server market. It is not good enough to hold > 50% market share this way.
Not really they have the most PCI-E lanes for a single CPU Platform and the highest Mem Bandwidth available on a server platform also accelerators they fall short on Per Core Perf vs Turin but let's not forget they are 2nd after Turin.
In client, Intel is not as far behind, it is more even, but how do you continue holding 75% of market share with products no better than competition?

The answer is OEM shenanigans, but even that trick is not going to work forever.
Price Availability and Support
It remains to be seen if Intel improves its competitiveness materially
- from Lunar lake on N3? Not much
- from Meteor Lake on Intel 3 and 4, some
- from Raptor Lake - a great deal, theoretically, but Panther Lake cost will be in completely different league than Raptor Lake. The el-cheapo segments where Raptor Lake mobile goes will not be able to afford Panther Lake.
Oh no WCL is the perfect replacement for RPL-U and PTL 4+4/4+8 SKU for RPL-H replacement and rest of the stack is getting overhauled on Mobile not to mention NVL Halo
In the meantime, AMD is moving from N4P to N3P and N2P.
N4P to N3P is happening for Cheap products premium SKUs are N2/P and they will divert most of the attention to DC no way TSMC has the capacity to support everyone why do they keep jacking the price cause the demand is higher.

Also Intel Advanced Accounting
 
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