Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

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DaaQ

Golden Member
Dec 8, 2018
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I agree on the principle bit I don't know ithe the said South bridge is compatible with pcie4 or pcie5.

X870E is PCIE4 from 2nd Prom21 chip.

Nova Wifi is only board, at the time I found with a PCIEx1 slot. Which is really pciex3.

Not sure if this is what you meant though.

 
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branch_suggestion

Senior member
Aug 4, 2023
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Z6 is only a newer version. I don't THINK that AMD intends on creating a more "Premium" product with Z6, it is simply the newest itteration of their product lineup. I expect it will START at the top as it always does, then new variants down the chain get released and the last variant is always the integrated graphics super cheap system chip or in this case, Ryzen 10XXX-G.
I mean if they are using the best nodes and the fact it uses 2.5d fanouts, that means higher BOM across the stack, which must be offset by higher ASPs.
The performance bump should be high enough this generation to justify it with Z5 being slowly phased out with price cuts as needed, but far slower than before.
Remember how much Z2 cost vs Z1, and especially Z3 vs Z2 because Intel had no answer at launch.
Z6 will be priced > any prior Zen generation at launch unless Intel has some sort of answer.
Intel is the Bulldozer now.
 
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511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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What do you think the total system cost will be for Nova Lake-S 52C vs corresponding AMD TR? Which will be the cheapest solution for comparable MT perf?

At least currently, the AMD TR platform and total system cost is quite expensive compared to regular DT.
Definitely less than TR and we have to see benchmark for NVL 52 Cores but i would expect 2-2.2X the Multi Performance vs ARL-S in cinememe and if it can beat a 64C Zen4 Threadripper at ~300W I would call it very good for core heavy workload for Zen 6 I am expecting it would beat 64C Zen3 threadripper easily.

 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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I mean if they are using the best nodes and the fact it uses 2.5d fanouts, that means higher BOM across the stack, which must be offset by higher ASPs.
The performance bump should be high enough this generation to justify it with Z5 being slowly phased out with price cuts as needed, but far slower than before.
Remember how much Z2 cost vs Z1, and especially Z3 vs Z2 because Intel had no answer at launch.
Z6 will be priced > any prior Zen generation at launch unless Intel has some sort of answer.
Intel is the Bulldozer now.
Calling ARL-S bulldozer a bit too much it sucks in games and few workloads and that's it it's not hot and power hungry like bulldozer and didn't suck at ST .
 
Jul 27, 2020
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Calling ARL-S bulldozer a bit too much it sucks in games and few workloads and that's it it's not hot and power hungry like bulldozer and didn't suck at ST .
The Lion Cove part of ARL-S is almost Bulldozer. In the Statuscore utility, Skymont does 17000 MIPS while the Lion Cove cores despite 500 MHz higher clockspeed, only manage 11000 MIPS. That's a shameful show of force by the "big" cores.
 

branch_suggestion

Senior member
Aug 4, 2023
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Calling ARL-S bulldozer a bit too much it sucks in games and few workloads and that's it it's not hot and power hungry like bulldozer and didn't suck at ST .
Well the perf difference between launch and now is like Bulldozer -> Piledriver.
And that bad impression effectively doomed Arrow Lake, Intel has not changed the status quo that was established with Z3, and so Ryzen remains the premium brand.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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Well the perf difference between launch and now is like Bulldozer -> Piledriver.
And that bad impression effectively doomed Arrow Lake, Intel has not changed the status quo that was established with Z3, and so Ryzen remains the premium brand.
It was reversed with Alder Lake and Raptor Lake but than raptor lake had to blow itself.
The Lion Cove part of ARL-S is almost Bulldozer. In the Statuscore utility, Skymont does 17000 MIPS while the Lion Cove cores despite 500 MHz higher clockspeed, only manage 11000 MIPS. That's a shameful show of force by the "big" cores.
Skymont is an insanely good PPA Core but it has flaws as well including it is slow in heavy vector workloads.
But man it is impressive piece of a core.
 

Joe NYC

Diamond Member
Jun 26, 2021
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Strix Halo's die-to-die interconnect is logically almost unaltered to Granite Ridge's and Turin's. I expect them to improve on that in Medusa, i.e. make it wider or/and clock it higher. (Might nevertheless be backwards compatible with Strix Halo's pinout, width, speeds, and power states though, but such backwards compatibility has its cost.)

It would make sense for Strix Halo chiplet connectivity / packaging not to be a throwaway design. No guarantees of backward compatibility, but it would be quite a coup if AMD could link up updated IODs with older and low cost Zen 5 N4P (Strix Halo) dies and be able to reach price as low as $150-$200 for 6-core all the way to ~ $750 for 24 core Zen 6 N2

They would still have to give the Stix Halo die V-Cache ability, to have a successor of 9800x3d but with new IOD.

Zen 4 Ryzen/EYPC/Instinct was the last time AMD stuck with the LEGO® principle. They abandoned it in Zen 5: They have different 8c CCDs for Granite Ridge, Turin, and Strix Halo (Zen 5 thread reference). Of course they are not from-the-ground-up different by any means, but they are not anymore mere different bins at the end of the same conveyor belt.

It was sub optimal, but it would be logical if AMD wants to emerge from this with a new chiplet to chiplet architecture that is more universal and can last for next 5+ years.

As you suggested, the width, speed, power levels of the connection may be configurable, but what if AMD wants to extend it to more than IOD <-> CCD.

Who knows what the next 5+ years bring. New designs, new types of silicon may emerge. Client side AI inference is what is being talked about today, which could spark / lead to such designs.

Or maybe new partitioning of items in IOD for better customization of products for their intended markets.
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
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Because the only applications where that many cores would matter are used by professionals. Professionals won't bat an eye at the higher price of TR as it pays for itself many times over in the increased productivity.
If they can get the same MT perf cheaper from 52C Nova Lake-S than from TR, why would they go with TR? If the performance is the same, they won’t get any increased productivity for going with TR. They will just waste money.

Sure, 64C TR will be faster, but 16/32C TR will likely not be a sensible option unless AMD drops the price significantly on those. But then the price jump for going to 64C will be insane if the price remains unchanged on only that variant.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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What is X3D for 400, Alex.
Don't give me the FrameCoper magical "100% stable" timings nonsense or the other lies from that circle of degenerates.
LoL when did I said the framecoper thing . It's the truth Alder Lake reversed the Zen3 dominance than 13900K was good vs 5700X3D than 7800X3D launched which only took gaming crown and than with Zen 5 X3D they took every crown.
You are making it sound like nothing outside gaming doesn't matter.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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If they can get the same MT perf cheaper from 52C Nova Lake-S than from TR, why would they go with TR? If the performance is the same, they won’t get any increased productivity for going with TR. They will just waste money.

Sure, 64C TR will be faster, but 16/32C TR will likely not be a sensible option unless AMD drops the price significantly on those. But then the price jump for going to 64C will be insane if the price remains unchanged on only that variant.
Zen 4 TR would have PCI-E lane advantage and memory size advantage the bandwidth advantage should be less when we compare Quad Channel DDR5-5200 vs Dual channel 8000 JEDEC and if Intel's IMC is to go by 10K shouldn't be difficult on NVL.
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
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Zen 4 TR would have PCI-E lane advantage and memory size advantage the bandwidth advantage should be less when we compare Quad Channel DDR5-5200 vs Dual channel 8000 JEDEC and if Intel's IMC is to go by 10K shouldn't be difficult on NVL.
For PCI-E lanes and memory size advantage it depends on the use case whether it’s of any importance. For a lot of use cases it’s not, and what you get with regular DT is good enough.
 

inquiss

Senior member
Oct 13, 2010
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What do you think the total system cost will be for Nova Lake-S 52C vs corresponding AMD TR? Which will be the cheapest solution for comparable MT perf?

At least currently, the AMD TR platform and total system cost is quite expensive compared to regular DT.
Yeah, it's meant for people that are serious about multi thread performance. A tiny volume of customers will want a mainstream platform crippled by memory bandwidth. The number of people that buy 16 cores zen parts right now is tiny.
 
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Jul 27, 2020
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If Medusa Halo has quad channel 256GB 10,000 MT/s RAM in addition to being attractively priced with PCIe 5.0 x16 slot, it will solve multiple problems at once:

1) Superb iGPU

2) Enough bandwidth for LLMs and AVX-512 workloads

3) No buying DIMMs and hoping they will hit the needed speed.

4) Less heat generation and lower noise and compact chassis

I will pay $2000 for it today if AMD wants a beta tester
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
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465
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Yeah, it's meant for people that are serious about multi thread performance. A tiny volume of customers will want a mainstream platform crippled by memory bandwidth. The number of people that buy 16 cores zen parts right now is tiny.
Not crippled by memory bandwidth. See previous post by 511.

And again, why pay more for TR if you can get the same MT performance much cheaper from NVL 52C on regular DT?

TR will only make sense if you need 64+ cores.
 
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Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
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465
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Assuming LBT doesn't kill the 52 core part or move it to workstation platform. Somehow I have a hard time believing this will materialize. Gonna end up costing $1000 or more if AMD doesn't have a good answer for it.
Yeah, but that’s still far cheaper than corresponding TR, especially when taking total system cost into account.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
2,297
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If Medusa Halo has quad channel 256GB 10,000 MT/s RAM in addition to being attractively priced with PCIe 5.0 x16 slot, it will solve multiple problems at once:

1) Superb iGPU

2) Enough bandwidth for LLMs and AVX-512 workloads

3) No buying DIMMs and hoping they will hit the needed speed.

4) Less heat generation and lower noise and compact chassis

I will pay $2000 for it today if AMD wants a beta tester
10K MT/s wouldn't be possible without Memory on Package it requires strong signalling also Nova Lake Halo exits with a beefy GPU 2026 is going to be a showdown with both companies having products across all the stacks competing.
 

511

Platinum Member
Jul 12, 2024
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Well we are speculating about performance and I am thinking that the 52 Core Nova Lake part would be approx $1000 and Zen 6 24 Core would be $900 ish.
 
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branch_suggestion

Senior member
Aug 4, 2023
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LoL when did I said the framecoper thing.
I said it just in case.
It's the truth Alder Lake reversed the Zen3 dominance
Wrong, it got Intel back to parity in MT and kinda gaming.
Before ADL AMD was ahead in all aspects. before that AMD was ahead in MT but still lagging in games.
They kept up with Z4 but with ARL being barely ahead of RPL Z5 has pulled away again in all but MT which has been a wash for the last 3 gens.
 
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