News AMD 4Q23 Earnings

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Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
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What Adroc is saying is that AMD already ha caught up with Nvidia, and that they do not need to catch them.

From technology point of view - he might be correct.

If your reading is correct then we're talking passed each other because I'm talking market positioning (which I thought was clear from my post but maybe not).
 

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
5,392
8,280
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That was an adoption of different workloads.
ML is a single one, you run chunggus model on a large matrix math farm.
Throw compute and membw at the problem is the core precept of anything and everything ML.

Time will tell but I don't expect (nearly) all of the AI spending to be solely on giant farms forever.
 

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
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I mean what even is market positioning in this context?
Intel still ships more server CPU units, just that none of that matters.

It doesn't matter is a bit extreme. Theoretically, if AMD had a major slip up and Intel came with another Conroe type moment, starting from already being the biggest player in the market does matter. I don't expect that to happen at this point, but market positioning absolutely matters for both short term and long term prospects. On the flip side, AMD had to work really hard over multiple years and execute almost flawlessly to claw server market share from Intel despite having superior products pretty much from Zen 1 before things really started to open up with Zen 3 going into Zen 4. This is because they started from almost zero in terms of market penetration. Market positioning is more fragile in tech where disruption can happen easier than in something like consumables, but it can still have a major impact.
 

adroc_thurston

Platinum Member
Jul 2, 2023
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Theoretically, if AMD had a major slip up and Intel came with another Conroe type moment, starting from already being the biggest player in the market does matter.
The point of AMD having a very even roadmap is for that to never happen again.
 
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Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
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The point of AMD having a very even roadmap is for that to never happen again.

Of course, no one creates road maps to failure but no company executes on their roadmaps to perfection either. Every tech company has had major slip ups and it will happen again.
 
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Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
5,392
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And it didn't matter in the end.
It's all about the roadmap and how well it's paced.

Intel issue is that they stumble constantly.

Short term caused some pain but they obviously recovered and being the firm market leader at the time helped in that regard. That's the point, market positioning matters.

Intel had two left feet for many years. Had they not been the clear market leader, they'd probably already be washed out by now. Alternatively, if AMD stumbled with Zen successors, they'd likely be gone. They weren't in a position where 1 good generation was enough to hold them over any longer.
 

moinmoin

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2017
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So you're saying that no one can design a better AI chip/module/system than NV from now until the end of humanity?
No, AMD caught up in technology. It's a two way battle now every gen and every launch for who offers the baddest boys, best perf/w and best perf/$. And this is Nvidia's battle to lose since they won't be able to retain their current (that is pre-MI300) monopoly on this market and that will be felt in revenue and margins. The real wildcard in all this is how the AI hype train will continue.

I dislike talking about Nvidia in an AMD thread, but their roadmaps are interesting in that they build hype really well around launches, and there always seems to be additional headroom prepared (or held back?) to counter surprisingly competitive competition (the way the Ti and Super variants of consumer GPUs came to be). Furthermore Nvidia does pretty well to preempt market developments with its software, helping their image as being a leader and innovator even where they just embraced existing technology. Unfortunate for Nvidia (and really lucky for all the competition) the current AI hype train doesn't rely on Nvidia's closed garden.

Intel on the other hand truly has become the generic mass market manufacturer it never wanted to be.
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,212
2,836
136
Ehh. I feel like AMD is overhyped in every sphere. Move on.
Overpriced stock maybe - people always overstate the growth potential. The projection pretty much shows MI300X isn't expected to be a runaway success.
But in causing interminable price cuts at Intel they're definitely #1.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,057
3,712
136
I ve seen much better projections for the MI300(x), the expected numbers are surprisingly low for some reason, price of such a device is 20 000$, so they dont expect to sell more than 20 000 units in Q1 2024 and given that it cost 0.5x the competition offering this is a very weak outlook.
 

adroc_thurston

Platinum Member
Jul 2, 2023
2,507
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I ve seen much better projections for the MI300(x), the expected numbers are surprisingly low for some reason, price of such a device is 20 000$, so they dont expect to sell more than 20 000 units in Q1 2024 and given that it cost 0.5x the competition offering this is a very weak outlook.
Ugh, no, GPGPU revenue is literally the only Q1 upside.
Everything else is bad, especially gaming.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,057
3,712
136
Ugh, no, GPGPU revenue is literally the only Q1 upside.
Everything else is bad, especially gaming.

We re not looking at the same numbers.

Given that AI is currently a very strong market and that their offering cost only 0.5x Nvidia s one this is just a disaster given the investments and effort, 400M/quarter is negligible quantity, one would had expected 1bn/quarter at least for a start.

Only relatively good number is that their client sales seems to recover from last year s downfall.
 

branch_suggestion

Senior member
Aug 4, 2023
201
432
96
It takes time, NV's journey began with V100, it took years and a few generations of products before a customer managed to make a killer app that skyrocketed demand.
Even then, it took some time before their new supply chain was online, then revenue rose like mad.
There are plenty of potential headwinds for everyone coming though. China was a massive share of the demand, and that market is nearly closed now.
MI300 is ramping faster than A100 did, quite a lot faster. Only H100 is a faster ramp once the cork was pulled, qualification for that mother took a long time.
AMD had virtually zero share until after MI100, that was just there to establish the CDNA chain for the future, MI200 was the first class leading part, but only in HPC but supplying those contracts certainly helped prepare for higher demand with a more general purpose accelerator, which is what MI300 is. It is the best part outside of training, even then it can basically reach parity in training if optimised, but training isn't nearly as agnostic as inference is right now. MI400 with the new on package Pensando DPU and Broadcom xGMI switches is gonna be litty though, the target there is comprehensive leadership.

NV may be a software first company, but they make nearly all their money on hardware.
They focus so hard on software to be ready for new markets, and then to provide the best software for said markets, software that only runs on their hardware or is exceptionally well optimised for their hardware.
NV's software is to lock people into their hardware ecosystem, which is where they make their money. Full vertical integration to extract obscene GM's, and to hope their software is comprehensive enough to discourage customers from migrating. Plus some anti-competitive stuff with smaller OEM's but I digress.

They do want a big SaaS presence too, but they aren't MS/Alphabet/Amazon/Meta/Oracle...
People distrust IHV software of that nature because of the lock-in threat, 3rd party software will work for the hardware that makes sense which makes customers more receptive.

The fact is though, the dominant software in AI is developed by the SV ISV titans, companies that NV or any other IHV will likely never surpass in revenue.

So in the hardware game, the biggest stick wins, AMD has multiple generations of SoIC already, and CoW_L coming next gen, and the disaggregation just keeps going from there.
Nobody knows stuff further out than that, or if they do, any mention of it would end with a R9X delivered straight from Austin.

NV has a lot to prove that they can scale their sticks to the same degree, the fun has just begun.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,057
3,712
136
No? no.

They're already above that number.

Did you listen to the ER call or
I ve read somewhere 20 000$ for the MI300, to compare to 40 000$ for a H100, it that s not 0.5x i dont know from where you got your own numbers.
Lisa Su said that they did set this price to attract buyers at a fast rate.
 
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