News AMD 4Q23 Earnings

Page 4 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

tajoh111

Senior member
Mar 28, 2005
299
312
136
yea.
The question is funny given that every NV product for 2022/2023 timeframe slipped.
Some are outright dead (let's play where's Waldo with infiniband).

Yes they do their R&D spend is at $1.5B now.

It was a Q1'23 product, chefe.

You don't do that, TSM has spare capacity aplenty.

They 'accelerated' roadmap at the tiny little cost of insane work-hours at their hweng galley.
It's all comp pressure stuff.
As far as GPU launches which Nvidia generally does slip very much if at all....AMD on the other hand has been doing it quite a bit lately. Most of their delays as of late has mostly been a result of excessive Amphere product and trying to clear it out. Ask any here even with the generally optimistic and positive AMD view, and they will say the same thing. Nvidia executes extremely well. They are just greedy and overprice their cards.

Ask anyone here about execution with GPU launches and Nvidia sticks to their roadmap much better than AMD.

Even worse if MI300 was supposed to be a Q1 product. My point is AMD has a hard sticking with their launch schedule. They are spreading their resources thin. 1.5 billion is just a 10% increase year on year. It makes sense because AMD financials don't give them the cashflow.

AMD income has not been too hot the last year.


Something like a yearly increase in R and D of 1.5 billion would cause them to lose money. A little less than 1 billion in net income for the year including the latest quarter(and best quarter).

Compare this to Nvidia which is likely to be somewhere in the neighborhood of just under 30 billion dollars during the same period(if we include the upcoming q4).


This give Nvidia the opportunity to spend vastly more on R and D.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/research-development-expenses.

Nvidia is well over the 1.5 billion this quarter on R and D and is likely to be spending 2.5 billion this quarter with likely spending over 3 billion a quarter by the end of the year. With Nvidia cashflow, they could spend 4 billion a quarter and it would not hurt the balance sheet. Add in the less diverse product stack compared to AMD and it should be clear, to keep up with Nvidia Datacenter roadmap, AMD will need to make some sacrifices or spend more than their finances they can currently support. Having a 23 q1 product become available really at the start of 2024 is not acceptable when it is the most important product in a market that is a bubble. With so much money on the line, Nvidia will do everything in their power to hamper AMD's datacenter growth.
 

adroc_thurston

Platinum Member
Jul 2, 2023
2,360
3,306
96
As far as GPU launches which Nvidia generally does slip very much if at all
H100 was way off lol.
Something like a yearly increase in R and D of 1.5 billion would cause them to lose money. A little less than 1 billion in net income for the year including the latest quarter(and best quarter).

Compare this to Nvidia which is likely to be somewhere in the neighborhood of just under 30 billion dollars during the same period(if we include the upcoming q4).

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/net-income.
This give Nvidia the opportunity to spend vastly more on R and D.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/research-development-expenses.

Nvidia is well over the 1.5 billion this quarter on R and D and is likely to be spending 2.5 billion this quarter with likely spending over 3 billion a quarter by the end of the year. With Nvidia cashflow, they could spend 4 billion a quarter and it would not hurt the balance sheet. Add in the less diverse product stack compared to AMD and it should be clear, to keep up with Nvidia Datacenter roadmap, AMD will need to make some sacrifices or spend more than their finances they can currently support. Having a 23 q1 product become available really at the start of 2024 is not acceptable when it is the most important product in a market that is a bubble. With so much money on the line, Nvidia will do everything in their power to hamper AMD's datacenter growth.
Mucho texto.
NV is using the cash pile for buybacks.
Maybe they'll acquire someone with it.
They're not pumping R&D much since you have a very limited talent pool unless you wish to build entirely new teams which takes many-many years.
You definitely have no clue as to how the industry works.

Either way NV can't do much until B100.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,001
3,357
136
No.

That's what lost them marketshare at Meta and MS.

It seems you don't understand how the market works.

Well my mistake, I forgot it was the CoWos packaging and not the wafers. But that doesn't change the fact that NVIDIA is capacity constrained at the moment and cannot sell higher volume, lowering prices at that point will only make things worse not better.

TSMC: Shortage of Nvidia's AI GPUs to Persist for 1.5 Years

The chairman of TSMC admitted that the ongoing short supply of compute GPUs for artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) applications is caused by constraints of its chip-on-wafer-on-substrate (CoWoS) packaging capacity. This shortage is expected to persist for around 18 months due to rising demand for generative AI applicationsand relatively slow expansion of CoWoS capacity at TSMC.
 

Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
1,647
2,849
136
lowering prices at that point will only make things worse not better.

Depends on who is buying them. There is long term value in selling to the big players at lower prices because they will be around for future cycles and they will steer the industry. If those players have AMD units then the NV software stack is not going to get used because it won't work on AMD so the companies like Meta, Google, MS, AWS who can steer what everyone else does will break the NV software ecosystem making it easier for smaller players to pick AMD in the future.

Then there is also trust. If those big players trust AMD then when the next upgrade cycle comes around AMD will be in the running with a competitive product. if NV had been able to shut AMD out and build up that trust the way Intel did over a decade ago then even if AMD had a better part the trust would not be there and the software stack would not be there so NV could offer a less competitive part and still win the contracts on other factors. Seems they may have lost that edge.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
14,001
3,357
136
Depends on who is buying them. There is long term value in selling to the big players at lower prices because they will be around for future cycles and they will steer the industry. If those players have AMD units then the NV software stack is not going to get used because it won't work on AMD so the companies like Meta, Google, MS, AWS who can steer what everyone else does will break the NV software ecosystem making it easier for smaller players to pick AMD in the future.

Then there is also trust. If those big players trust AMD then when the next upgrade cycle comes around AMD will be in the running with a competitive product. if NV had been able to shut AMD out and build up that trust the way Intel did over a decade ago then even if AMD had a better part the trust would not be there and the software stack would not be there so NV could offer a less competitive part and still win the contracts on other factors. Seems they may have lost that edge.

Actually I was referring to NVIDIA and the problems they have trying to keep the supply of AI HPC Chips to their customers, when you are capacity constrained and you have long waiting supply lists you dont cut prices, you may as well increase prices.
 

Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
1,647
2,849
136
Actually I was referring to NVIDIA and the problems they have trying to keep the supply of AI HPC Chips to their customers, when you are capacity constrained and you have long waiting supply lists you dont cut prices, you may as well increase prices.

and I am pointing out that doing that to the big players may not be the best thing to do long term because those big players get to set standards through sheer scale and missing that boat to earn more in the short term can land you ashore.

EDIT:

Not saying NV will be left ashore but the other downside for NV in this instance is that it means their software stack will not be the goto in these companies because they are also using AMD. Once of the main reasons smaller players use NV is the software stack is easier, if the big guys come in with AMD hardware then the AMD stack will get improved very very quickly and that NV advantage disappears.
 
Last edited:

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,654
5,278
136
Oh and forgot to mention... AMD also mentioned in the 10-K that Client volume for the whole year was down 12% and ASP down 16%. By comparison, Intel for notebooks was -5% volume / -5 % ASP and desktops was -9% volume / +5% ASP. Kind of makes any talk of AMD gaining share questionable although I suppose those could be ignoring Chromebooks.
 
Reactions: Vattila

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
5,360
8,146
136
Oh and forgot to mention... AMD also mentioned in the 10-K that Client volume for the whole year was down 12% and ASP down 16%. By comparison, Intel for notebooks was -5% volume / -5 % ASP and desktops was -9% volume / +5% ASP. Kind of makes any talk of AMD gaining share questionable although I suppose those could be ignoring Chromebooks.

For the full year that’s probably true, but exiting the year, it looks like AMD is back to gaining market share again, though not in a significant way.
 

yuri69

Senior member
Jul 16, 2013
393
627
136
Btw the recent JPR report shows how the PC market segmentation works:


70% of PC CPUs are notebooks. Only 30% are desktops - OEM & DIY. This means AMD's focus point should really be APUs and OEM channels.
 
Reactions: Vattila

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,149
2,688
136
The same report also shows, however, that AMD has a higher market share in servers than they do in mobile. And a higher share in mobile than they do in desktop. I find that second claim dubious, but they're the market experts.
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,149
2,688
136
DIY desktop is the tiny irrelevant part of the whole market.
AMD traction in OEM DT boxes is middling at best.
Middling is better than how I'd describe their notebook selection - but the numbers are slightly on your side so I'll concede (not really, I still don't believe it)
 
Reactions: Grazick

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,654
5,278
136
Sony announced their results. They did do ok in selling PS5's (8.2 million) but also said that they expect sales to slump hard this year. Between that and MS's problems I kind of figure the Gaming Segment is going to be down more than just "double digits".
 
Aug 4, 2023
179
383
96
Sony announced their results. They did do ok in selling PS5's (8.2 million) but also said that they expect sales to slump hard this year. Between that and MS's problems I kind of figure the Gaming Segment is going to be down more than just "double digits".
RDNA4 should lead a rally in Q4 along with console seasonality. Still high teens down for the whole year though, but 2025 looks okay.
 
sale-70-410-exam    | Exam-200-125-pdf    | we-sale-70-410-exam    | hot-sale-70-410-exam    | Latest-exam-700-603-Dumps    | Dumps-98-363-exams-date    | Certs-200-125-date    | Dumps-300-075-exams-date    | hot-sale-book-C8010-726-book    | Hot-Sale-200-310-Exam    | Exam-Description-200-310-dumps?    | hot-sale-book-200-125-book    | Latest-Updated-300-209-Exam    | Dumps-210-260-exams-date    | Download-200-125-Exam-PDF    | Exam-Description-300-101-dumps    | Certs-300-101-date    | Hot-Sale-300-075-Exam    | Latest-exam-200-125-Dumps    | Exam-Description-200-125-dumps    | Latest-Updated-300-075-Exam    | hot-sale-book-210-260-book    | Dumps-200-901-exams-date    | Certs-200-901-date    | Latest-exam-1Z0-062-Dumps    | Hot-Sale-1Z0-062-Exam    | Certs-CSSLP-date    | 100%-Pass-70-383-Exams    | Latest-JN0-360-real-exam-questions    | 100%-Pass-4A0-100-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-300-135-exams-date    | Passed-200-105-Tech-Exams    | Latest-Updated-200-310-Exam    | Download-300-070-Exam-PDF    | Hot-Sale-JN0-360-Exam    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Exams    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-JN0-360-exams-date    | Exam-Description-1Z0-876-dumps    | Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps    | Dumps-HPE0-Y53-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-HPE0-Y53-Exam    | 100%-Pass-HPE0-Y53-Real-Exam-Questions    | Pass-4A0-100-Exam    | Latest-4A0-100-Questions    | Dumps-98-365-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-98-365-Exam    | 100%-Pass-VCS-254-Exams    | 2017-Latest-VCS-273-Exam    | Dumps-200-355-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-300-320-Exam    | Pass-300-101-Exam    | 100%-Pass-300-115-Exams    |
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    | http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    |