Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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Tigerick

Senior member
Apr 1, 2022
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The issue Intel is facing not only from product competitive; we all know Intel's client CPU is not exactly power efficient but due to their own factory, Intel is able to offer CPU at lower prices with volumes. Intel has earned almost $30 billions in client PC last year. OTOH, AMD's client's revenue has dropped from $6.15 billions to $4.65 billions.

This year might not be good year for Intel though, asking TSMC to manufacture ARL-S, ARL-HX and LNL means Intel has lost cost and volume advantages. Based on leaks, Intel has ordered three production lines only for above CPUs, that's mean they are limited by production volumes like AMD...
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,772
4,739
136
The issue Intel is facing not only from product competitive; we all know Intel's client CPU is not exactly power efficient but due to their own factory, Intel is able to offer CPU at lower prices with volumes. Intel has earned almost $30 billions in client PC last year. OTOH, AMD's client's revenue has dropped from $6.15 billions to $4.65 billions.

This year might not be good year for Intel though, asking TSMC to manufacture ARL-S, ARL-HX and LNL means Intel has lost cost and volume advantages. Based on leaks, Intel has ordered three production lines only for above CPUs, that's mean they are limited by production volumes like AMD...
Why do you assume this? I see this argument and wonder if there is some standard factory with no difference in cost structures, no matter where they are and who operates them. We should let this reasoning die.
 

RnR_au

Golden Member
Jun 6, 2021
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As you can see, there was plenty of information about ZEN4 months before Release, which is why I always doubted any April rumors. Even the whole "osborning old products" Story doesn't make sense. If ZEN5 is so good singlethread, they could have still shown the Blender run with the Multi Perfomance and let the singlethread bomb pop at real presentation.

Or show ZEN5 running games or whatever. Instead they are dead silent. Maybe they really ran into problems and so far it's not perfoming up to standard.
Not sure you can compare Zen 4 and Zen 5 'events'. Zen 4 was kinda special since it also launched AM5. I don't think AMD is under the same pressure today to convince folk that they have a good platform.
 

Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
7,936
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Regardless of how good Zen 5 is or isn't, unless AMD has more manufacturing volume, They don't see them making meaningful market share gains. If it's really good, AMD will just prioritize server as they have the past several generations.
 
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FlameTail

Platinum Member
Dec 15, 2021
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MTL is decent, but barely keeps Intel in the game for laptops. Everything else is won by AMD. If Zen 5 is really a real leap, then Intel may finally lose some real market share. They have already lost a lot, but this may be a lot more even still.
If AMD has "won", why do they still have less than 15% marketshare in laptops?
 

Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
May 16, 2002
25,635
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If AMD has "won", why do they still have less than 15% marketshare in laptops?
Performance is what I am talking about. If company "A" has 100 laptops of different models for sale at a store, and company "B" has 20, just that alone will sway most idiot users.

Also, Intel can afford to price them lower, just to try and keep market share. As their servers continue to lose sales, this will change, as they won't have as much money to burn.
 

S'renne

Member
Oct 30, 2022
136
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If AMD has "won", why do they still have less than 15% marketshare in laptops?
Probably because AMD laptops are like anywhen from 6 months after launch to be released and in very low or selective volumes until at least a year later(literally most notable example is Remembrandt) and most people just goes for Intel at that point
 
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S'renne

Member
Oct 30, 2022
136
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61
Performance is what I am talking about. If company "A" has 100 laptops of different models for sale at a store, and company "B" has 20, just that alone will sway most idiot users.

Also, Intel can afford to price them lower, just to try and keep market share. As their servers continue to lose sales, this will change, as they won't have as much money to burn.
Its not really idiot users because most laptops also need a period of time to end up at the user's hands and not everyone waits that long for AMD, especially if bought in bulk for enterprises, and gaming laptops that are custom built takes the longest
 
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tamz_msc

Diamond Member
Jan 5, 2017
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AMD Q4 FY23 Client operating margin = 4%
INTC Q4 FY23 CCG operating margin = 33%

AMD Q4 DC operating margin = 29%
INTC Q4 FY23 DC&AI operating margin = 2%

In the long run, AMD stands more to lose from the gains they've made in DC, because everybody and their grandmas are realizing that it doesn't make sense to lose margins to AMD and INTC buying their CPUs for the data center, when you can build your own. MSFT, Amazon, Google are all going there.

So DC operating margins are going to peak soon for AMD. OTOH, Intel's DC&AI downfall is due to the arrogance and ego of the refusal to acknowledge the shortcomings of their products and failing to execute. Their operating margins are going to/have bottom(ed) out.

Client is a wholly different story. Minor marketshare gains will not help AMD in the long run. Intel, however, has realized their mistake in treating CCG as a second-class citizen.
 
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itsmydamnation

Platinum Member
Feb 6, 2011
2,803
3,253
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AMD Q4 FY23 Client operating margin = 4%
INTC Q4 FY23 CCG operating margin = 33%

AMD Q4 DC operating margin = 29%
INTC Q4 FY23 DC&AI operating margin = 2%

In the long run, AMD stands more to lose from the gains they've made in DC, because everybody and their grandmas are realizing that it doesn't make sense to lose margins to AMD and INTC buying their CPUs for the data center, when you can build your own. MSFT, Amazon, Google are all going there.

So DC operating margins are going to peak soon for AMD. OTOH, Intel's DC&AI downfall is due to the arrogance and ego of the refusal to acknowledge the shortcomings of their products and failing to execute. Their operating margins are going to/have bottom(ed) out.

Client is a wholly different story. Minor marketshare gains will not help AMD in the long run. Intel, however, has realized their mistake in treating CCG as a second-class citizen.
5 years ago wants it prediction back.......
 

mikegg

Golden Member
Jan 30, 2010
1,809
423
136
Zen 5 could be AMD's M1 moment (minus probably power efficiency coz it's a monster core). Intel's such moment isn't expected till Nova Lake. Far, far away...
Wake me up when AMD can make an M1 competitor. Yes, I said M1. A SoC that can go into something as thin and small as a Macbook Air, fanless, 20 hours of battery life, extremely snappy, and performs the same plugged in or on battery.

In 2024, 3+ years after the M1, AMD is still no where close.
 

Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
May 16, 2002
25,635
14,628
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Wake me up when AMD can make an M1 competitor. Yes, I said M1. A SoC that can go into something as thin and small as a Macbook Air, fanless, 20 hours of battery life, extremely snappy, and performs the same plugged in or on battery.

In 2024, 3+ years after the M1, AMD is still no where close.
I don't think you get it. The Zen 5 is NOT a competitor to the M1, but the power/efficiency compared to Intel is so great, it appears to be that great of an accomplishment (waits for reviews)
 

mikegg

Golden Member
Jan 30, 2010
1,809
423
136
I don't think you get it. The Zen 5 is NOT a competitor to the M1, but the power/efficiency compared to Intel is so great, it appears to be that great of an accomplishment (waits for reviews)
The person I responded to mentioned M1.

I don't understand why it's still only being compared to Intel. It's 2024 now. AMD needs to compete with Apple, Intel, Amazon, Qualcomm (Nuvia cores), Nvidia (rumored ARM SoC in the works), Mediatek, Google, Microsoft, Chinese cloud companies, Huawei, Ampere, etc.
 
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Goop_reformed

Member
Sep 23, 2023
178
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The person I responded to mentioned M1.

I don't understand why it's still only being compared to Intel. It's 2024 now. AMD needs to compete with Apple, Intel, Amazon, Qualcomm (Nuvia cores), Nvidia (rumored ARM SoC in the works), Mediatek, Google, Microsoft, Chinese cloud companies, Huawei, Ampere, etc.
Is this trolling?

Is M1 in data center? how can you compare the M cores to Zen cores when they were designed for extremely contrasted scenario? Not appropriate at all.
 

adroc_thurston

Platinum Member
Jul 2, 2023
2,501
3,646
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when you can build your own. MSFT, Amazon, Google are all going there.
they don't have good IP for that.
It's AMD or bust.
:3
Client is a wholly different story. Minor marketshare gains will not help AMD in the long run. Intel, however, has realized their mistake in treating CCG as a second-class citizen.
yes yes Intel wynnyn. trust me bro.
please go back.
 
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