Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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Panino Manino

Senior member
Jan 28, 2017
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Just what we needed when the hype train was achieving dangerous velocity, a big earthquake.
Zen 5 will be delayed a bit, right? TSMC fabs in Taiwan had to stop working.
 

Ghostsonplanets

Senior member
Mar 1, 2024
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Curious why AMD is holding off. Watching DDR6 development?? That would require a new IOD (2x mem channels), and thus a likely socket change.
So Zen 6? Zen 6 is to bring huge changes to uncore and advanced packaging.
Just what we needed when the hype train was achieving dangerous velocity, a big earthquake.
Zen 5 will be delayed a bit, right? TSMC fabs in Taiwan had to stop working.
Digitimes reports that while production was halted, some production lines will resume in 6 hours. But per Bloomberg, the earthquake created an structural damage at Fab 18 (?) which is where the majority of N5 class and N3 class wafers are processed. So far it was said that EUV machinery was halted.

TSMC, the main contract chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp., moved staff out of certain areas and said it’s assessing the impact of a temblor measuring 7.4 in magnitude off the east coast. Smaller local rival United Microelectronics Corp. also halted machinery at some plants and evacuated certain facilities at its hubs of Hsinchu and Tainan, it said in a statement.

A source familiar with TSMC told DIGITIMES Asia that TSMC's N3 fab in Tainan "saw its beams and columns broken, and the production lines have been halted. EUV machines have all stopped, while its R&D lab also saw its wall cracked." The same source also said that a TSMC fab in Hsinchu is also seeing pipelines broken. The production line has been halted due to extensive damaged wafers. The good news is, some production lines will resume operation in six hours.



 

Ghostsonplanets

Senior member
Mar 1, 2024
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If production of EUV enabled nodes was truly affected, it would be a disaster as it would disrupt basically everything leading edge from all leading edges companies (AMD, INTC, NVDA, QCOM, MTEK, etc).

But thankfully it doesn't seem to have provocated serious damage to TSMC. Wishing all the best to Taiwan people and specially those affected though.
 

aigomorla

CPU, Cases&Cooling Mod PC Gaming Mod Elite Member
Super Moderator
Sep 28, 2005
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Oh dont mind the big bouncer in the corner with the big hammer ready to give out 2 for 1s.

Intel comparisions in an AMD thread must show the direct comparision in the thread and have the words AMD. But you guys all know that beacuse we only stated it like 10x.

But don't mind us...
i feel xmas is coming again, and im gonna do a 2 for 1 point deal.

So please ignore the moderating staff and give us a chance to use our nice tools we have for forum moderatorion that we do not like using.

Moderator Aigo.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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Nice friends. Hope you send them gifts from time to time. Curious why AMD is holding off. Watching DDR6 development?? That would require a new IOD (2x mem channels), and thus a likely socket change.
Between:
- DDR6
- LPCAMM
- LPDDR as Memory On Package
the odds of new socket with DDR6 interface (for client) are probably less than 50%.
 

Doug S

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2020
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If TSMC's N3 fab "saw its beams and columns broken" that sounds pretty serious to me. Not only can you not immediately restart production until structural issues are repaired, you'd think there is also a good chance that such structural damage also damaged all the plumbing carrying liquids and gases around, meaning a lot of cleanup with tons of work to get back to cleanroom levels of cleanliness.

Pretty conflicting reports with many claims that production was able to be restarted almost immediately and also this. Both can't be true.
 

Ghostsonplanets

Senior member
Mar 1, 2024
387
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If TSMC's N3 fab "saw its beams and columns broken" that sounds pretty serious to me. Not only can you not immediately restart production until structural issues are repaired, you'd think there is also a good chance that such structural damage also damaged all the plumbing carrying liquids and gases around, meaning a lot of cleanup with tons of work to get back to cleanroom levels of cleanliness.

Pretty conflicting reports with many claims that production was able to be restarted almost immediately and also this. Both can't be true.
Digitimes and Bloomberg reports were based on a supposed TSMC spokeperson while Wen-Yee Lee report should be from the TSMC itself. So I'm inclined to believe the latter rather than the former.
 

soresu

Platinum Member
Dec 19, 2014
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That's very slow and it can't do anything about AVX+ extensions.
Plus there will be piles of compatability issues with legacy stuff.

A5xx power at 3 times the perf will never be not funny.
I haven't yet gotten around to testing FEX emu, do we know if it performs better than WoA's built in emulation/binary translation?
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
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If TSMC's N3 fab "saw its beams and columns broken" that sounds pretty serious to me. Not only can you not immediately restart production until structural issues are repaired, you'd think there is also a good chance that such structural damage also damaged all the plumbing carrying liquids and gases around, meaning a lot of cleanup with tons of work to get back to cleanroom levels of cleanliness.

Pretty conflicting reports with many claims that production was able to be restarted almost immediately and also this. Both can't be true.
Is there only 1 N3 fab line?
 
Reactions: soresu

eek2121

Platinum Member
Aug 2, 2005
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This is a cryptic as it can get, but let me guess: Both Intel and AMD will offer a huge leap in perf/W and battery life with Strix and LNL, with next-gen x86 laptops being able to comfortably get 8 working hours of battery life and making Snap X Elite efficiency advantage a wash?
If Snapdragon X Elite led in ALL metrics, they'd STILL have an uphill battle. They won't. They won't even be close. That is kind of the issue. I take it many of you have never lived through a 'tech bubble' before. The current 'AI' hype is a bubble (note: AI itself is not). So is the whole ARM on desktop thing. Don't get me wrong, the competition is pushing establish players to aim higher, but Qualcomm won't become a dominate player without a change in leadership and a strategic shift. Their corporate culture is based around profitability and killing competition. They can't walk into a marketplace with heavy competition and expect to win with that mindset.

View attachment 96279
Look at how scary efficient Apple's E-core is.
It is also scarily irrelevant to the entire PC market since it can't even run Photoshop on Windows, much less Windows itself. That is why I continue to downplay Apple hardware. Apple COULD have a great product, but tying it to a platform kills it for most people. Will Apple see an uptick in marketshare? Sure, will they reach 50%? not a chance. At all. Same story with Qualcomm. Some of the software I've helped build alone will stop Qualcomm from hitting high marketshare.

That is why AMD Zen 5 and Intel Arrow Lake will outsell competitors by a significant margin. I'm not a betting man, but I'd absolutely bet a ton of money on that one. Qualcomm and Apple have no chance of catching up with Intel/AMD this gen because their current strategies don't even allow it. They won't even outsell Intel/AMD in mobile, much less other segments.

EDIT: because I know certain folks here will try their utmost to defend Qualcomm, I wanted to give you an alternative way of thinking:

Android Phones, according to many users, are considered second classto iPhones. The privacy is worse, the UX, while having improved, is still not quite up to Apple thanks to fragmentation, security is "better" (you can debate this, but I will absolutely go to war over this as I've used both platforms heavily since first release) and performance blows thanks to Apple making awesome chips.

Do you really think Qualcomm will go from X place to second or first in one or even 3 generations? They'd have to deliver something that put everyone else to shame, and their product won't even be remotely competitive with upcoming products, including the next gen Apple stuff. Qualcomm won't even catch up to Apple M series this gen (yes, they are behind in certain metrics), to say nothing of x86-64.

To even get a win in those market conditions you'd have to have the cheapest product, which they also do not have.

(NOTE: I say X place because most folks here do not know the size of the total "General Compute" market. If you think you do, ask yourself how many 6502 or 8088/8086 chips are being made/sold today, if you guessed 0 or even "a few thousand" you are wrong.)
 
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Jan Olšan

Senior member
Jan 12, 2017
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AVX code is likely in a performance critical part of the application that was optimized. And emulation of these instructions is going to the slowest.
Intel might regret gimping AVX-AVX2 away from those Celerons and Pentiums and not putting compatibility into *mont cores earlier, since this means almost all software works fine without AVX due to devs needing to maintain Atom compatibility.

And thanks to that, the emulation should run nicely, too (not talking about the performance hit). The bigger problem is that the x86@ARM emulation doesn't work for drivers, which will break games with copy protection and some software. And you may find some peripheral like a printer suddenly doesn't work.
 

poke01

Senior member
Mar 8, 2022
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It is also scarily irrelevant to the entire PC market since it can't even run Photoshop on Windows, much less Windows itself. That is why I continue to downplay Apple hardware. Apple COULD have a great product, but tying it to a platform kills it for most people. Will Apple see an uptick in marketshare? Sure, will they reach 50%? not a chance. At all. Same story with Qualcomm. Some of the software I've helped build alone will stop Qualcomm from hitting high marketshare.


Zen 5 might actually be a killing stone for WoA. That’s why this year and CES 2025 is crucial for AMD, it makes them leaders in the PC world if rumours are true.

(Also why would anyone care about running Photoshop on windows on a Mac? Photoshop is native on the Mac and frankly Adobe suite is optimised to the moon on the M Series.

Apple’s Mac hardware is niche and it’s in own bubble, downplaying doesn’t change a thing. At the end of the day it’s ships in millions and Apple is definitely not trying to cater to everyone. That’s what AMD and Intel do and what Qualcomm is trying to do.

Qualcomm has bigger challenge and it doesn’t want to be in bubble. It can’t be in bubble. x86 is Qualcomms biggest issue and you are right it will be very hard for Qualcomm to make big dent.

Let’s stop the Qualcomm/Apple talk here and move it to relevant threads)
 
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