Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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Mahboi

Senior member
Apr 4, 2024
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Without the market share, AMD is leaving Intel with 9.5 billion war chest. If Inrwl one day uses the money wisely, AMD could end up with no market share and no margin (as has happened countless of times).
It does not work that way. Intel has released multiple financial reports with a literal 1% net income. AMD was at 22% for the last one IIRC.
What you spend to run the company is spent. It's the remaining booty that you can qualify as a proper war chest.

But I do agree with you, AMD's slowness or unwillingness to just pump more volume has been bothering me. Hopefully that will change with that rumored SFX4 node contract for lower tier stuff, at least.
 
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FlameTail

Platinum Member
Dec 15, 2021
2,356
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It does not work that way. Intel has released multiple financial reports with a literal 1% net income. AMD was at 22% for the last one IIRC.
What you spend to run the company is spent. It's the remaining booty that you can qualify as a proper war chest.

But I do agree with you, AMD's slowness or unwillingness to just pump more volume has been bothering me. Hopefully that will change with that rumored SFX4 node contract for lower tier stuff, at least.
If AMD had brought massive volume and aggressive time to market (no paper launches!), they could've completely overrun the market by now.

It's telling that despite the massive comeback AMD bas made in the past 8 years, they only have 20% of the CPU marketshare.

Rembrandt and Phoenix were amazing parts compared to Intel alternatives (more efficient, better iGPU) but they failed to make a dent on Intel because AMD failed to bring them to market in the proper time at sufficient volumes.
 

Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
1,673
2,953
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If AMD had brought massive volume and aggressive time to market (no paper launches!), they could've completely overrun the market by now.

It's telling that despite the massive comeback AMD bas made in the past 8 years, they only have 20% of the CPU marketshare.

Rembrandt and Phoenix were amazing parts compared to Intel alternatives (more efficient, better iGPU) but they failed to make a dent on Intel because AMD failed to bring them to market in the proper time at sufficient volumes.

AMD did the volume play with the 4870 and RV770, it is not effective, you get a bump in marketshare but you have to shrink the margins such that you make less actual money despite the increase shared. It is not like 4870 was once and done either because the 5870 was a good card and was the 1st with angle independent AF and with the 480 coming in late and hot it had a good spell without any competition.

The point is everyone keeps saying 'do the volume play, do the volume play' and then AMD do it and they still buy Intel / NV or whatever because it is a ploy to force those companies to lower prices rather than being a healthy choice for AMD long term.
 

Mahboi

Senior member
Apr 4, 2024
522
835
91
AMD did the volume play with the 4870 and RV770, it is not effective, you get a bump in marketshare but you have to shrink the margins such that you make less actual money despite the increase shared. It is not like 4870 was once and done either because the 5870 was a good card and was the 1st with angle independent AF and with the 480 coming in late and hot it had a good spell without any competition.

The point is everyone keeps saying 'do the volume play, do the volume play' and then AMD do it and they still buy Intel / NV or whatever because it is a ploy to force those companies to lower prices rather than being a healthy choice for AMD long term.
Considering what's being said about Zen 5, 40%+ IPC improvements accompanied with same or slightly better clocks, along with killing Zen 4, all excuses are going to get kicked out.

Zen 5 will have the performance crown by a lot, they'll make very large margins no matter what. Intel is already bordering on non-profitability, just look at their financial reports. It's viable, but that "1%" net income is probably trafficked through to get anything else than a 0.x% number. If Zen 4 is already bringing Intel to stagnate in cashflow, Zen 5 will be the ultimate test. AMD's going to have the power, the margins, no competition.

Either they go for the market AND the margins, either their strategy is to stay the eternal N°2 because it's vastly more comfortable to optimise a smaller company for better margins than it is to go very very big and bloated. NVidia didn't grow that big merely because they were led by Comrade Jensen of the Compute Party, they also were laser focused on a select portfolio of clients and techs (gaming, later compute, later AI). AMD is an ogre that eats GPU and FPGA companies to further its ambition of Being Everywhere:tm:.
It's time to show that they're not just trying to enjoy the comfortable N°2 seat forever and really go for it. If adroc is correct, there's nothing between July 2024 and 2026 that'll even come close. And then Zen 6 will come and give them an extra boost.

Dew it Lisa, Dew it. Jump at the Raptor's throat and slice it in two.
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,212
2,836
136
I'm not saying it's deliberate but someone claims Zen 5 is 40% faster core-to-core and somehow it becomes 40% higher IPC. This conflation keeps going on and on and seemingly among people who should know better.
No one expects clock rates to increase much but haven't we learned from Zen 4? Frequency may be higher than you think and IPC will be lower than you think.
 

Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
1,673
2,953
136
I'm not saying it's deliberate but someone claims Zen 5 is 40% faster core-to-core and somehow it becomes 40% higher IPC. This conflation keeps going on and on and seemingly among people who should know better.
No one expects clock rates to increase much but haven't we learned from Zen 4? Frequency may be higher than you think and IPC will be lower than you think.

Yup, I have said the same thing and then others will bash the leakers if it misses in CB or GB when the claim was only ever Specint ST.
 

FlameTail

Platinum Member
Dec 15, 2021
2,356
1,276
106
I'm not saying it's deliberate but someone claims Zen 5 is 40% faster core-to-core and somehow it becomes 40% higher IPC. This conflation keeps going on and on and seemingly among people who should know better.
No one expects clock rates to increase much but haven't we learned from Zen 4? Frequency may be higher than you think and IPC will be lower than you think.
I know.

I put "+40%" IPC in the meme because it sounds and looks better than "+40% performance"
 

HurleyBird

Platinum Member
Apr 22, 2003
2,697
1,292
136
AMD did the volume play with the 4870 and RV770, it is not effective, you get a bump in marketshare but you have to shrink the margins such that you make less actual money despite the increase shared. It is not like 4870 was once and done either because the 5870 was a good card and was the 1st with angle independent AF and with the 480 coming in late and hot it had a good spell without any competition.

The point is everyone keeps saying 'do the volume play, do the volume play' and then AMD do it and they still buy Intel / NV or whatever because it is a ploy to force those companies to lower prices rather than being a healthy choice for AMD long term.

The issue with the Terrascale gen was less about the volume play, and more about using a mid-range die as their high end. Keep everything the same, but add a 4970 as a halo card, which thanks to AMD's monumental architectural advantage would have blown GT200 out of the water, and that gen would have looked like the R300 moment AMD needed to recover from Nvidia's G80 moment.
 

Thibsie

Senior member
Apr 25, 2017
765
834
136
Sorry, you must be new here.

"My sources got old data". "My source tested an old firmware". "My IPC figure didnn't count games". "My IPC figure got no AVX-512".

The same clowns pushed the Zen 4 killer IPC or RDNA3 brutal leakz. Navi 33 having 4+k stream processors, being a RV770 reborn, with a "whole new uArch" argument countering the questions.
Well, sometimes the clowns aren't who we think they are...
 

Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
1,673
2,953
136
The issue with the Terrascale gen was less about the volume play, and more about using a mid-range die as their high end. Keep everything the same, but add a 4970 as a halo card, which thanks to AMD's monumental architectural advantage would have blown GT200 out of the water, and that gen would have looked like the R300 moment AMD needed to recover from Nvidia's G80 moment.

It would have helped a lot yea. 1,200 shader halo model would have been pretty epic and not ludicrously large.

I think the main advantage NV have is very consistent execution. FX was the last true miss and GTX 480 was probably the last lacklustre part. The main issues for 2000 and 4000 series are just pricing more than architecture.

Back to Zen 5 though and AMD will do what they did in the 64 FX days if they have the clear performance advantage and charge through the nose for it.
 
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Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,056
3,712
136
Wait so canonically Intel wins by cheating???

You wont find a single benchmark that was "updated" and then favoured AMD, in all cases it gave Intel a better "IPC" than in the previous version comparatively to AMD, it started with CPU Z wich was urgently and hugely "updated" because Zen 1 was trouncing SKL to Cinebench R20/R23 that increased Intel "IPC" by 5-6% compared to CB R15 and more recently Geekbench, i wont talk of Uselessbenchmark when Zen 4 was released, this one use a simple look up table for the scores.
 
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