Discussion 2024 USA Election Thread: Biden and Dems might have problems in 2024 swing states - The Gaza Issue

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Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,124
6,714
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‘Getting it over with’ most likely means WAY more dead people, so you’re ok with that?

Funny how people are mad at Biden due to civilian deaths caused by Israel and then when Trump is like ‘just kill them all’ you’re fine with it.

Reminds me of how people were mad at Obama over drone strike fatalities but when Trump hugely increased them nobody cared.

You're expecting a non hypocritical world and everyone judged the same way.

All around you there is mass evidence to the contrary.

It's incredible how naive and dismissive (in utter disbelief literally) the mass public is to a very simple fact of life.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,241
48,423
136
You're expecting a non hypocritical world and everyone judged the same way.

All around you there is mass evidence to the contrary.

It's incredible how naive and dismissive (in utter disbelief literally) the mass public is to a very simple fact of life.
To be clear I’m saying you’re doing this by saying you agree with him/Trump.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,124
6,714
136
Correct. You agreed with the post that said the same number of people would die in both cases, which is ludicrous.

Stop calling other people's opinion ludicrous when the status quo and 2000+ years of history makes your opinion look utterly ludicrous!

This problem has been above everyone's paygrade for millennia.
 

gothuevos

Golden Member
Jul 28, 2010
1,923
1,673
136
The entire thing hinges on swing states and if Biden can't even hold onto the midwest.. it's over barring some miracle in the deep south.

Man, wait until these same voters in Michigan see what Trump has in store for protestors.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,241
48,423
136
Stop calling other people's opinion ludicrous when the status quo and 2000+ years of history makes your opinion look utterly ludicrous!

This problem has been above everyone's paygrade for millennia.
No, I will call clearly ludicrous positions ludicrous. The idea that civilian deaths would be the same is pretty obviously false.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,124
6,714
136
Man, wait until these same voters in Michigan see what Trump has in store for protestors.

One thing vastly underrated in our wanting to get more immigrants to vote is they come not from democracies but from strongmen government countries.

They see Trump as being strong and Biden being weak. And they vote that way too.


FFS just look at the dems wanting to give waivers and green cards to Venezuelans. And who did they vote for back home?? Maduro and Chavez.
 

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
26,280
24,326
136
Stop calling other people's opinion ludicrous when the status quo and 2000+ years of history makes your opinion look utterly ludicrous!

This problem has been above everyone's paygrade for millennia.
What cowardly bullshit
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,124
6,714
136
No, I will call clearly ludicrous positions ludicrous. The idea that civilian deaths would be the same is pretty obviously false.

Great.. will your calling ludicrous positions ludicrous help Biden get re-elected?

If not can you please come up with something that can and tell him about it.

I don't want another Trump term!
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,241
48,423
136
Great.. will your calling ludicrous positions ludicrous help Biden get re-elected?

If not can you please come up with something that can and tell him about it.

I don't want another Trump term!
I’m not sure - do you think saying you agree with Trump will help get Biden elected?
 

GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
6,932
7,344
136
Along with many others, I'd like the Biden administration to do more than they have to prevent further devastation. But let's not create a false equivalence between current policy and what Trump would be telling Israel. The Biden administration has reportedly told Israel to not assault Rafah, period. To some degree, you're right that the administration always feels a step behind, but they're stuck between a rock and a hard place. There is no policy we could choose that would appease both sides (and I don't mean Israel as one of those sides). We like to think POTUS is the most powerful person in the world, but is he really? Why can't he even get Bibi to stand down?

There just are no good solutions here, and I think what needs to be crystal clear to Israel is that there is a red line (i.e. full assault on Rafah), and if they cross it, there will be severe consequences (we pull the plug on military aid). Otherwise we're a dog that's all bark, and no bite. (To state the obvious, I don't think we're anywhere near abandoning Israel as a staunch ally, for reasons that do include pro-Israel lobbying.)

If Trump was POTUS, he would have green-lit a ground invasion of Rafah over a month ago. How do you even know that 50k deaths are inevitable any way you slice it, so it's politically preferable to get it over with quickly? For one, I think the Biden administration is trying to prevent 50k more deaths. And two, I think assaulting Rafah would open the door to Hezbollah and Iran escalating, and now you have a much more dangerous regional war that almost certainly draws in U.S. armed forces.

I don't think Gaza will be a top-4 issue for voters in November (1 and 2 are clearly the economy and the southern border). It could be important in Michigan*, but "It's the economy, stupid" will most likely be decisive across the handful of battleground states. IMHO people's feelings about the economy will be baked in sometime this summer, and are unlikely to change a month or two before the election.

* Very sobering article centered around Dearborn:

- I made an argumentative mistake by putting a number, 50K in this case, on the deaths.

In this alternative timeline we don't know that it's at 30k here and now, and whether it will be 50/75/100k when it's all over.

I think fundamentally it's always going to be "a lot of deaths" the only factor the POTUS really has any control over is the time variable and making things drag out or resolve quickly.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,157
2,251
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- I made an argumentative mistake by putting a number, 50K in this case, on the deaths.

In this alternative timeline we don't know that it's at 30k here and now, and whether it will be 50/75/100k when it's all over.

I think fundamentally it's always going to be "a lot of deaths" the only factor the POTUS really has any control over is the time variable and making things drag out or resolve quickly.
The core mistake wasn't putting a precise number on the catastrophe.

Our administration is working tirelessly to prevent a ground assault on Rafah; if Pres. Biden didn't give two fucks, it would have happened already. We're working hard to increase humanitarian aid despite Israel's cock blocking. Trump would have gleefully given the thumbs up weeks ago on a full assault; while his son-in-law imagined redeveloping the beaches of Gaza.

I'm okay with saying it's unknowable how bad things will still get, or that dragging this out until the election can't be good politically. But equating the human toll of current Biden policy vs known Trump positions is silly IMO. I linked to a Salon piece that's very sobering politically, indicating how angry Arab voters in Dearborn, MI are. But I still wish some voters can look past the anger* and acknowledge that Trump is no friend of Muslims. Period.

Ignoring the political and electoral elements, which road do you think is "better?" A hostage exchange and 40-day cease fire; or talks collapsing and the IDF sends in the tanks? Your argument works only if a full assault on Rafah is certain no matter what we do; in which case, then yeah a lot of diplomats are just wasting a lot of time negotiating. As a reminder, we're not just trying to deescalate the IDF vs Hamas war; but also keeping Hezbollah and Iran on the sidelines.

* I"m not saying they should while their relatives are being maimed and killed. But the political "strategy" of well maybe Trump 2.0 can be better for Arabs is pure fantasy, unless your name is MbS.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,492
7,545
136
Anyone feeling like DD is biased?
Incumbency in a time of inflation is a real bitch. Just ask Carter.
And if certain Dem voters want to abandon ship over Israel.....

2024 is a real risk. We need to get out the vote.
 
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Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,124
6,714
136
Incumbency in a time of inflation is a real bitch. Just ask Carter.
And if certain Dem voters want to abandon ship over Israel.....

2024 is a real risk. We need to get out the vote.

Yep I had that feeling when I started this thread.

Genocide Joe is catching and Trump is fully on board with it.

We're fucked.. maybe for generations.
 
Reactions: gothuevos

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,157
2,251
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But each world leader does have the power to put their hand on the scale. Unfortunately for POTUS they’d get far more scrutiny from the western world than dictators that don’t give a rats ass what they do. Bibi is one of those that just doesn’t care. Like no matter how much Biden insists on a seize fire, cutting off aid won’t make a difference in the short term. Unless it drags on for a year and Israel gets no more aid for that entire time before he’ll change his mind.
Absolutely POTUS does have power to influence, and Biden has to use it when necessary. Unless I'm mistaken, the foreign aid bill that just passed reduces one of the levers we have over Israel. And yeah Bibi DGAF, but he should if we drew a red line at Rafah and if crossed, stopped military aid to exert max. pressure. What I'm trying to say is that U.S. policy has shifted since Oct. 7th, largely due to how the IDF has conducted itself.* There's always room to "do more," and clearly there's a lot more work to be done no matter what ultimately happens in the current conflict.

I just disagree wholeheartedly with this Genocide Joe BS, and that our administration doesn't give a fuck. Biden is not the CiC of the IDF, and we are not tacitly endorsing their vengeance tour.

* Do people think that if Trump was POTUS, he would have cared how the IDF has operated and would have shifted U.S. policy in response? I highly doubt it, based on his past pro-Israel policy. The only thing that's changed for Trump is he got butt hurt that Bibi called Joe Biden to congratulate the President-Elect. As we all know, for Trump, everything is transactional.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,124
6,714
136
Absolutely POTUS does have power to influence, and Biden has to use it when necessary. Unless I'm mistaken, the foreign aid bill that just passed reduces one of the levers we have over Israel. And yeah Bibi DGAF, but he should if we drew a red line at Rafah and if crossed, stopped military aid to exert max. pressure. What I'm trying to say is that U.S. policy has shifted since Oct. 7th, largely due to how the IDF has conducted itself.* There's always room to "do more," and clearly there's a lot more work to be done no matter what ultimately happens in the current conflict.

I just disagree wholeheartedly with this Genocide Joe BS, and that our administration doesn't give a fuck. Biden is not the CiC of the IDF, and we are not tacitly endorsing their vengeance tour.

* Do people think that if Trump was POTUS, he would have cared how the IDF has operated and would have shifted U.S. policy in response? I highly doubt it, based on his past pro-Israel policy. The only thing that's changed for Trump is he got butt hurt that Bibi called Joe Biden to congratulate the President-Elect. As we all know, for Trump, everything is transactional.


Not looking good though is it?
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,271
33,546
136
* Do people think that if Trump was POTUS, he would have cared how the IDF has operated and would have shifted U.S. policy in response? I highly doubt it, based on his past pro-Israel policy. The only thing that's changed for Trump is he got butt hurt that Bibi called Joe Biden to congratulate the President-Elect. As we all know, for Trump, everything is transactional.

Trump's only comments on this issue have indicated that he thinks Israel should better conceal what they are doing not that he thinks it is wrong. If they killed every last Palestinian I don't think he'd have a problem with it, he just doesn't like the bad press.
 

Thump553

Lifer
Jun 2, 2000
12,693
2,456
126
Trump's only comments on this issue have indicated that he thinks Israel should better conceal what they are doing not that he thinks it is wrong. If they killed every last Palestinian I don't think he'd have a problem with it, he just doesn't like the bad press.
Trump-the guy that reversed decades of bilateral Presidential practice and greenlighted the move of the US Embassy to Jerusalem. Trump was so loved by the current right wing Israeli government that they plastered his picture all over public buses.

To "punish" Biden by voting in Trump is about as wrong a decision as a person could make.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,241
48,423
136
Trump-the guy that reversed decades of bilateral Presidential practice and greenlighted the move of the US Embassy to Jerusalem. Trump was so loved by the current right wing Israeli government that they plastered his picture all over public buses.

To "punish" Biden by voting in Trump is about as wrong a decision as a person could make.
It’s also amazing how short people’s memories are. This is the same sort of thing people said in 2000 and 2016 - how did that work out.
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,124
6,714
136
It’s also amazing how short people’s memories are. This is the same sort of thing people said in 2000 and 2016 - how did that work out.

You just proved the biggest selling point of Trump. They forget everything about him because new stuff every 20 mins on twitter.

We seriously as a country need to de-trumpify!
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,241
48,423
136
You just proved the biggest selling point of Trump. They forget everything about him because new stuff every 20 mins on twitter.

We seriously as a country need to de-trumpify!
I’m not so sure about that - he’s very unpopular!
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,241
48,423
136
Then how is Biden behind him in popularity??

Is it just because Trump is a big FUCK YOU LIBS to us?
Like I said, polls at this point aren't very instructive because people aren't paying much attention. That being said, as we've moved closer to election season and people are paying more attention Trump's position seems to be eroding.
 
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