Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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Philste

Member
Oct 13, 2023
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Your literal web browser.
The last device I had that was too slow in webbrowsing from my point of view was my 2013 phone with 1GHz ARM single core. 30% uplift is nice, but if it means a website loads in 0.7s instead of 1s I couldn't care less. But i'm not everyone. I just wanted to say that for me it all moves to a wrong direction. I definitely don't need 12 Cores that have 30% higher IPC than current best cores.
LNL itself is the expensive part.
It's a premium tablet part.
Just like the old overpriced -Y things.
Yeah, it's probably more expensive to produce than Strix, but AMD isn't shy to increase prices when they got a dominating product (see Vermeer). So we will see what is more expensive for the Bayer at the end of this year.
 
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Ghostsonplanets

Senior member
Mar 1, 2024
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a) yes yuo do
b) 1t perf delta!

155 or so.
A tiny bit bigger than TGL-U.
Thanks!
The last device I had that was too slow in webbrowsing from my point of view was my 2013 phone with 1GHz ARM single core. 30% uplift is nice, but if it means a website loads in 0.7s instead of 1s I couldn't care less. But i'm not everyone. I just wanted to say that for me it all moves to a wrong direction. I definitely don't need 12 Cores that have 30% higher IPC than current best cores.
Zen 5 is supposed to be a JIT shredder. Anything js based will get a huge uplift is what Adroc is trying to say. This isn't restricted to your browser only. PWAs, anything with Electron backend (A surprising amount of popular modern software), etc should get substantial and very noticeable by the consumer QoL improvements in performance.

Yeah, it's probably more expensive to produce than Strix, but AMD isn't shy to increase prices when they got a dominating product (see Vermeer). So we will see what is more expensive for the Bayer at the end of this year.
Both Strix and Lunar should be more or less in the same ballpark for pricing, even if AMD raise (by a lot) prices . Unless Intel started discounting LNL recently, it's a very expensive part despite the mobility focus. Tiled, Packaging, N3B and MOP don't come in cheap.

I actually really question why Intel choose a tiled approach for LNL when LNL is a custom design that isn’t reusing tiles. They should have gone monolithic like Apple M1/2/3 are.
 

adroc_thurston

Platinum Member
Jul 2, 2023
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No idea where the notion came from.
Well DT and server have 2MB L2 at barely more area so "new floorplan" is the organic assumption.
Zen 5 is supposed to be a JIT shredder. Anything js based will get a huge uplift is what Adroc is trying to say. This isn't restricted to your browser only. PWAs, anything with Electron backend (A surprising amount of popular modern software), etc should get substantial and very noticeable by the consumer QoL improvements in performance.
Kinda the selling point of any chungus core, really.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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I belive it was still under the old arrangements where the foundry was basically giving them away to CCG. Now that Foundry is separated, CCG needs to pay the fair share for the RPL.

I think it persisted into Q1, with a percentage of dies pulled from die banks at old (fictional) costs, allowing CCG to report inflated profits. It becomes more difficult starting current Q2.

Hence why Adroc says Intel tiled designs have cost structure problems. Before, CCG would pay "nothing" for the Intel Foundry dies. Now they have to pay the fair share and also are bound to external manufacturing prices. Coupled with expensive packaging and validation, Intel is cooked at low-end due to expensive cost adders that they can't eliminate.

I have been saying that for a while as well, but I prefer not to troll the Intel threads too much with this information. MTL and ARL are over-engineered, over-complicated and as a result, their costs are too high. And, from the left field, came assembly capacity bottleneck.

The bottom line, facing real cost, growing competition in all segments, Intel will not have as much room for predatory pricing shenanigans in the future. Leveraging monopoly in commercial to wage predatory pricing war in other segments.

Notice how many times AMD said "commercial" in prepared remarks:



It looks like AMD is aiming to become more of a player here, with Zen 4 and Zen 5 derivatives, further depriving Intel of its ability to wage unfair competition.

Which will be even harder for Intel to do, if the rumors of a performance gap Intel will be lagging behind Zen 5 prove to be true.

PHX 2 is 137mm². RPL-U/ADL-U is around 180 - 200mm² iirc? (Less P cores but GT3 Iris Xe GPU compared to DT GT1 GPU).

For this year, yes. Next year, Barcelo-R, Rembrandt-R and HWK are RIP (Except for some very budget designs). Kraken will come with force to replace them. It's an AI PC Ready SoC and will introduce AI PC for the mainstream designs.

Interesting rate of improvement for low end from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025 between Intel and AMD:
- AMD: Barcelo-R, Rembrandt-R and HWK -> Kraken
- Intel: Raptor -> Raptor
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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Well that's only happening because AMD has a chungus 1t advantage allowing them to push units very aggressively.

Staying on N4/N5 while Apple and Intel move to N3 means enough capacity. Some of the Kraken chips may even be Made in USA, from Arizona, as additional N4/N5 capacity comes online.
 

carancho

Member
Feb 24, 2013
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If I understand correctly, wide availability of laptops (eg other than Asus or whoever the first OEM is) would be around:

Hawk Point: June 2024
Strix Point: November 2024
Strix Halo: June 2025

Correct?

And for Intel:
Lunar Lake, Arrow Lake: November 2024
Panther Lake: September 2025

(Just trying to get a clearer picture of how the competition will go, if I'm wide off the mark please correct me!)
 

adroc_thurston

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Ghostsonplanets

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It looks like AMD is aiming to become more of a player here, with Zen 4 and Zen 5 derivatives, further depriving Intel of its ability to wage unfair competition.
AMD being able to slot into Commercial designs is a really good move as that's one area very Intel dominated and that has good revenue potential.
Interesting rate of improvement for low end from Q1 2024 to Q1 2025 between Intel and AMD:
- AMD: Barcelo-R, Rembrandt-R and HWK -> Kraken
- Intel: Raptor -> Raptor
Intel Low-End next year will be a interesting thing to see. According to Bionic:


Problem is, from the few reviews so far, MTL-U = RPL-U. Even in battery life (Against RPL-U), it's hit or miss depending on the OEM implementation. Here, Bionic claims that the move to Intel 3 will yield 10% PPW improvement over Intel 4 Compute Tile. But is that enough for OEMs to choose ARL-U over the cheaper RPL-U?

I believe Intel will have serious trouble at mainstream next year with competition from Kraken. <$800 will be composed of ARL-U and RPL-U. While >$800 will be RPL-H, with LNL and ARL-H slotting in >$999 designs.

KRK will outperform Intel mainstream offerings next year with a cleaner SKU line-up that's cheaper to ramp and be offered in high-volume.
 

ToTTenTranz

Member
Feb 4, 2021
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Well yeah but that's a cost structure problem, Intel is themselves to blame.
Like QC will be shipping your purvas and AMD will be shipping krakens just fine.

What's the selling point of Kraken over Phoenix, specifically Hawk Point?


I'm guessing Kraken will be the standard choice for the ROG Ally and Legion Go follow-ups. Better battery life? Better performance at 20W? Just better CPU performance from Zen5?
 

adroc_thurston

Platinum Member
Jul 2, 2023
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What's the selling point of Kraken over Phoenix, specifically Hawk Point?
SINGLE
THREAD
PERFORMANCE
I'm guessing Kraken will be the standard choice for the ROG Ally and Legion Go follow-ups. Better battery life? Better performance at 20W? Just better CPU performance from Zen5?
1T
P E R F O R M A N C E
E
R
F
O
R
M
A
N
C
E
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,072
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If I understand correctly, wide availability of laptops (eg other than Asus or whoever the first OEM is) would be around:

Hawk Point: June 2024
Strix Point: November 2024
Strix Halo: June 2025

Correct?

And for Intel:
Lunar Lake, Arrow Lake: November 2024
Panther Lake: September 2025

(Just trying to get a clearer picture of how the competition will go, if I'm wide off the mark please correct me!)

Not to tie it to specific month, just quarter, I would say:
Q3 2023 Phoenix
Q1 2024 Hawk Point
Q3 2024 Strix Point
Q1 2025 Strix Halo, Kraken
 

Ghostsonplanets

Senior member
Mar 1, 2024
387
659
96
What's the selling point of Kraken over Phoenix, specifically Hawk Point?


I'm guessing Kraken will be the standard choice for the ROG Ally and Legion Go follow-ups. Better battery life? Better performance at 20W? Just better CPU performance from Zen5?
1T performance uplift, better perf/W and battery life, simpler design for AMD. But, also, it will comply with MS AI PC 45 TOPs requirement and thus OEMs who use KRK will be able to market it as AI PC while also receiving rebates.

PHX/HWK don't comply here and thus are phased out.
 

carancho

Member
Feb 24, 2013
26
12
81
You can literally find it now.
In like $600 craptops.

Dates too arbitrary to matter.
Do channel checks.

Arrows are mostly CES'25 and LNL follows the *exact same* cadence as Strix1.
I checked the OEMs a couple of weeks back and
Not to tie it to specific month, just quarter, I would say:
Q3 2023 Phoenix
Q1 2024 Hawk Point
Q3 2024 Strix Point
Q1 2025 Strix Halo, Kraken
24Q1 for Hawk Point seems weird. I just checked Lenovo's website and the ThinkPads are still all Phoenix. Same with other OEMs. Hawk Point seems to be trickling out. (I don't dispute AMD sales numbers from their earnings report. Just saying that I've yet to see Hawk Point versions of the laptops I'd buy available. Perhaps they're going to gamer laptops first.)

Even so, the guidance is appreciated.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,056
3,712
136
What's the selling point of Kraken over Phoenix, specifically Hawk Point?


I'm guessing Kraken will be the standard choice for the ROG Ally and Legion Go follow-ups. Better battery life? Better performance at 20W? Just better CPU performance from Zen5?

Rog Ally 2 should use Hawk Point given its 16CUs, otherwise there s no...point to call it Rog Ally 2.
I checked the OEMs a couple of weeks back and

24Q1 for Hawk Point seems weird. I just checked Lenovo's website and the ThinkPads are still all Phoenix. Same with other OEMs. Hawk Point seems to be trickling out. (I don't dispute AMD sales numbers from their earnings report. Just saying that I've yet to see Hawk Point versions of the laptops I'd buy available.)

Even so, the guidance is appreciated.


Better to wait a little to have large and competiting offerings.
 
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ToTTenTranz

Member
Feb 4, 2021
74
121
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1T
P E R F O R M A N C E
Ok I get it, but for ~25W gaming handhelds that are choking on memory bandwidth and power for the iGPU this doesn't make it exactly a big selling point. Phoenix's 8-core CPU performance already looks pretty unbalanced compared to the GPU.

1T performance uplift, better perf/W and battery life, simpler design for AMD. But, also, it will comply with MS AI PC 45 TOPs requirement and thus OEMs who use KRK will be able to market it as AI PC while also receiving rebates.

PHX/HWK don't comply here and thus are phased out.
I get the perf/W part, but the AI part is meaningless for the Ryzen Zx parts coming to these devices, as they're probably going to be disabled again anyway.

Rog Ally 2 should use Hawk Point given its 16CUs, otherwise there s no...point to call it 2.
I think you mean Strix Point? Hawk Point is just Phoenix refresh.
 
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