The winner of the war between Israel and Hamas, Russia, and Ukraine is only China.It is darkly funny how Russians are desperately attempting to convince themselves that the outcome of this war is the restored Russian empire when the far likelier scenario is Russia becoming a vassal state of China.
Since you're the expert on this, please tell us precisely the ungodly discount Russia is forced to sell their oil to China for. These are desperation sales for Russia, and you know it.
America is barely noticing any of these wars. It’s a drop in the bucket for us.The winner of the war between Israel and Hamas, Russia, and Ukraine is only China.
Why are you afraid to admit this? China is becoming stronger day by day by buying cheap oil and America getting stuck in the swamp of Ukraine and the Middle East.
Europe is watching as usual because it has no power.
Neither side has committed a substantial percentage of their population to the war effort (which is good I suppose). Russia has more bodies to throw right now, they're also losing more.5:1 10:1 should settle the matter relatively quick considering that Russia is only about 3-4 times the size of Ukraine. I guess there is a difference in conscription methodologies…
Sure, a 'sovereign, democratic country' that Russia invades in another 8 years, potentially after some facefuck Republican president decides words don't mean what words mean anymore and we aren't in a defensive alliance with anyone else anymore.Summary of an interview with rep Adam Smith (D)
Some unsettling realpolitik.
Insert "Not sure, but might have to accept this as the only practical political option" emoji here.Ukraine is not likely to have the resources for a major offensive action in 24 or 25 unless there is some huge unforeseen shift. So yea that basically leaves going on the defensive almost everywhere and bleeding the Russians of men and equipment as efficiently as possible. Really all they need to do this is sufficient arms and munitions which can somewhat alleviate their manpower shortage. Most analysis of Russian vehicle depots indicates they will be dry in 1-1.5 years time or sooner for some models at present expenditure rates. Russian production of actual new vehicles cannot remotely keep pace with their losses. So likely sometime in 25 Putin is going to want to actually talk before the army is mostly riding Chinese lawnmowers into battle. Ukrainian strikes of critical Russian infrastructure within 1500km of the front are also almost certain to drastically increase over this period giving more incentive to do a deal.
At this point I think some kind of territorial concession is likely unavoidable and Ukrainian moods may have shifted in favor if they can get a decent deal. The security guarantee however is going to have to be nearly ironclad and include basing of EU nations militaries inside Ukraine proper while it works toward EU/NATO membership. The Russians will turn around and declare victory and that they accomplished their goals even though this whole thing is a strategic catastrophe of epic proportions.
China is becoming stronger day by day by buying cheap oil and America getting stuck in the swamp of Ukraine and the Middle East.
Europe is watching as usual because it has no power.
Ukraine getting Crimea back from this war is certainly a worthy goal to hold out for. Yet is it a realistic one given their present circumstances? Would Zelenskyy somehow keep this war going until that happens?
The Ukrainian people seems to fully support this action.Ukraine getting Crimea back from this war is certainly a worthy goal to hold out for. Yet is it a realistic one given their present circumstances? Would Zelenskyy somehow keep this war going until that happens?
Nope. They have zero air defenses and are running low on meat for the Russian meat grinder.
The last aid package IMO was just enough to drip feed them enough to last for the Nov elections. Once these elections are over, ya think anyone will care about Ukraine at that point? It took what, 6 months to get $60B approved, which BTW the majority of which doesn’t even go to directly to Ukraine in the form of arms? Its clear as day this administration is ready to move on and are now starting to pivot towards China. Just look at all of the anti-China FUD in the past few weeks.
The trick is that Russia will never ceasefire until they reach Poland.I dont know, give up the dirt and get a NATO presence in the country as a guarantee it wont repeat in 10 years again
Well. Our defacto policy is to not let Ukraine lose. Seems like that's it. This is the present political reality (as indicated from the ranking Dem on the House ASC). The Biden and his admin are keeping their mouths shut it appears - that have to play a particular way to win the election. If Democrats are thinking this - you can imagine that the republicans are full blown f* Ukraine. Russia's use of social engineering never saw such results until social media consumption became as common as McDonald's fries in the US. I do not like what is happening but the position indicated here shows what is happening.Sure, a 'sovereign, democratic country' that Russia invades in another 8 years, potentially after some facefuck Republican president decides words don't mean what words mean anymore and we aren't in a defensive alliance with anyone else anymore.
Ukraine can't do this - unless they get massive support from NATO. UKR's economy is decimated. They need a huge amount of economic and military aide to win. Thus far, no country has been willing to put boots on the ground (or provide direct air support, etc.). What they have done so far is all they can do right now. Take a look at *this article* - a bit dated, but without the US, it just doesn't look good. Unless there is a real commitment, Russia will go on for a while with both Ukrainians and Russians dying for the ego of one man and his cronies. Intel indicates that Russia doesn't want to stop at the Ukrainian border - but we are obviously not too worried about that (in a sense, why would we be; Russia nearly crippled itself getting across the Dnieper - getting across the Atlantic is absurd**). The rubber is meeting the road right now.I disagree with @K1052 on the notion of territorial concessions. I believe Ukraine can bleed Russia to such an extent that Russia will leave Crimea and the Donbas willingly. I mean Ukraine has only just begun in targeting Russian industrial facilities ie the oil refineries. Once the Ruble goes into freefall, as the Russian central bank will eventually lose all their levers for supporting it, so will the Russian Empire.
Implementation proves difficult. Russia knows the results of peace and so avoids it unless they get everything else they want. They rather mobilize a dozen times than sign a peace which lets NATO and EU secure and rebuild Ukraine.I dont know, give up the dirt and get a NATO presence in the country as a guarantee it wont repeat in 10 years again, fasttrack EU and NATO. Use next 20 years to see Russia crumble from within, never take their gas and oil again sanctions stays in place.
Assume that this means with their Stormshadow as well. Which could mean that even assets guarded with antiair would be hit.England green lights Ukraine to use their shit to strike within Russia.
Sad, delusional stuff. English must not be your primary language; we don't equate strength with what's been happening with China's economy since 2022. 2023 was horrible for them, 2024 will probably be worse. I bet Putin and Xi wish your gaslighting was real, it would probably mean they both weren't in terminal population spirals (made worse by war for Russia, stupid policies for China). Sounds like you're mad America isn't currently caught in a bear trap like Russia is. Awww. Well, just be happy the orcs aren't fighting Americans with current American weapons I guess? That's your silver lining.
Europe has no power? Then why do Russians shit themselves over what the EU does? It has something like 50 times the economic clout of China's most valued shithole ally, Russia. Xi would auction off his own wife's back porch to have ASML (Dutch) under his control. Clueless yet pompous, such a curious choice for those selling a fascist narrative. You're mad. I guess you should be though. Reality hasn't been kind lately, has it? When nearly 90% of foreign investment capital leaves China's stock market in a year, I guess some of you are going to take it kinda hard, huh? "stronger day by day!" lol uh whatever you need to tell yourself there chuckles
'Clueless' might too charitable though. It's probably something more challenging, more severe, if looking at the "swamp of Ukraine" makes you think the US is the country "stuck" there...
Who is actually getting stronger day by day? NATO. Thanks Putin! Hell of thing to do, especially while spending Russia's infrastructure money on the military like he is.
It’s pretty funny that your first map shows Ukraine retaking about half of the territory it lost in the initial full scale invasion.You only say nice things.
So why is Crimea in Russia's possession/occupied after 10 years?
Why has Ukraine lost new territories?
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You only say nice things.
So why is Crimea in Russia's possession/occupied after 10 years?
Why has Ukraine lost new territories?
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View attachment 98283