Russia on brink of ... NOPE! Russia INVADES Ukraine!

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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,329
12,944
136
It's almost like there is an upcoming US election. Russian/Chinese bots to full power!!!
Yea but how many regulars on this board and what kind of exposure do we have, are we live on a Twitter thread with 500.000 peeps watching? It doesnt make sense.
 
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Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,400
1,578
136
Europe and the US have been stuck in the war between Israel and Hamas for several months.
Russia occupied Crimea for over ten years.
Ukraine has lost part of its territory.
Biden is a weak president, and there are weak leaders in Europe.
And...
These are signals of weakness that will encourage China to seize Taiwan.

Let me guess, all of this will change if Trump is elected in November?
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,493
7,547
136
I get the impression UKR was willing to accept the loss of Crimea initially, thinking that might be the limit of it. I expect they figured they could work with it economically. Once Vlad overstepped again, all bets and gloves were off. There is no other thing acceptable now but total reclamation.
Crimea and the land bridge leading to it, is the one key piece of securing the Black Sea and protecting Ukraine from the southern flank.
It allows Odessa to enjoy forward deployed air defense. Making the next round of this war a far weaker prospect for Russia.

Taking it grants a stronger peace through force.
Failing to take it, leaves Russia hungry for more and Ukraine in a far weaker position.

But at this point, no one is capable of an offensive push against Russian defensive lines. The Russian war effort would have to collapse first, before land could be retaken in any meaningful way. And there are no signs of Russia doing anything except doubling down year after year.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,243
48,431
136
Russia does not need a "good" army.
Bombs are still bombs if they are WW2 vintage, and they still shred men trying to hold trenches on the frontline.
Uhmmm, not really.

If you need to see what happens when you have a good army look at the US invasion of Iraq. Seems like a lot better outcome for the good army!
 

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
26,282
24,329
136
Russia does not need a "good" army.
Bombs are still bombs if they are WW2 vintage, and they still shred men trying to hold trenches on the frontline.
Yes things are going so well they are using ASW rockets with improvised warheads. That seems sustainable.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,274
33,550
136
Russian MOD: We have so many munitions being made that the world trembles before us.

Russian Vatniks: Bylat. We have to break up TM-62s to shove into these rockets that will go on top of a Frankenstein AFV that's destiny is to get vaporized by an FPV drone minutes into another meat assault.
 
Nov 17, 2019
10,995
6,576
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How many Panzers and Tigers were left in fields due to lack of fuel while their crews walked home?

Pity that can't happen here.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
27,480
36,923
136
Holy shit that is ghetto AF. I presume it's for the RBUs welded to trucks we saw earlier. The Black Sea Fleets most enduring contribution to the war I guess... ha

Meanwhile, UK tells Ukraine "You go right ahead and send StormShadow over the border. Fuck'em up." I hope this sentiment becomes the consensus among Ukrainian allies, seems appropriate.

Looks like ATACMS and more arty shells are having the desired effects, and will definitely help keep things 'stale matish' until winter, but I worry about the fatigue. The 47th has been chopping up Russians nonstop for months, incurring their own losses along the way. Several others are even worse off. AFU has entire companies of nothing but wounded people standing on the front line, in the face of Russian meat waves and glide bombs. Absolute badass mofos, one and all. Just isn't sustainable though. Hopefully more Ukrainians overseas come home to help, though I suspect the ones who were open to it already returned.

I think it's time EU boots take over those non combat positions out West. A couple thousand fresh troops spread along high need areas in the Donbas could go a long way I bet. I hope it's already happening.
 
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Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,493
7,547
136
Uhmmm, not really.

If you need to see what happens when you have a good army look at the US invasion of Iraq. Seems like a lot better outcome for the good army!
Sadly, Russia does not face that army.

Over 3,000 glide bombs are dropped on Ukrainian positions each month. Leaving a 15 meter crater has an impact, even on the survivors.
It doesn't have to be an expensive guided missile to win a war.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,243
48,431
136
Sadly, Russia does not face that army.

Over 3,000 glide bombs are dropped on Ukrainian positions each month. Leaving a 15 meter crater has an impact, even on the survivors.
It doesn't have to be an expensive guided missile to win a war.
To be clear I’m not saying that Russia doesn’t have the advantage here, I’m just saying that quality very much does matter and if they had a high quality army we wouldn’t even be having this conversation as the war would already be over.
 
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JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
11,737
890
126
How many Panzers and Tigers were left in fields due to lack of fuel while their crews walked home?

Pity that can't happen here.
Did you forget about the first year of the war where Ukrainian tractors were towing away abandoned Russian vehicles? During that time Russian captured vehicles outpaced Western aid.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,243
48,431
136
Did you forget about the first year of the war where Ukrainian tractors were towing away abandoned Russian vehicles? During that time Russian captured vehicles outpaced Western aid.
I did think it was funny that for a while (maybe still) the largest donor of armored vehicles to Ukraine was Russia.
 

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
33,493
7,547
136
To be clear I’m not saying that Russia doesn’t have the advantage here, I’m just saying that quality very much does matter and if they had a high quality army we wouldn’t even be having this conversation as the war would already be over.
Good gave way to meat waves and raw numbers.

And that is STILL a winning strategy. If it wasn't for our recent aid bill, a collapse of the front line was going to occur in mere weeks. That's how badly damaged Ukraine is from Russia throwing everything they have at it. Our action was REQUIRED to forestall Russia from winning the war.

Which is to say, take what they are doing seriously. We have not done nearly enough to rest easy.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,243
48,431
136
Good gave way to meat waves and raw numbers.

And that is STILL a winning strategy. If it wasn't for our recent aid bill, a collapse of the front line was going to occur in mere weeks. That's how badly damaged Ukraine is from Russia throwing everything they have at it. Our action was REQUIRED to forestall Russia from winning the war.

Which is to say, take what they are doing seriously. We have not done nearly enough to rest easy.
I absolutely take Russia seriously and I think we should do a lot more to crush Russia’s genocidal ambitions while we have the chance. Nobody’s a bigger fan of aid to Ukraine than me. (Well maybe you are, haha)

That being said it is obvious that Russia is only employing this strategy, at enormous cost, because it is incapable of pursuing more effective strategies due to their initial army being a lot worse than people thought and the subsequent massive casualties they have suffered.

While Ukraine is in a fight for their existence Russia is also caught in a trap here that they never expected.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,274
33,550
136
Good gave way to meat waves and raw numbers.

And that is STILL a winning strategy. If it wasn't for our recent aid bill, a collapse of the front line was going to occur in mere weeks. That's how badly damaged Ukraine is from Russia throwing everything they have at it. Our action was REQUIRED to forestall Russia from winning the war.

Which is to say, take what they are doing seriously. We have not done nearly enough to rest easy.

The idea that Ukraine could not defend itself for years in a full scale war against Russia without aid is not a surprise. That the Russians have performed so badly against a far smaller country and have lost the war in every strategic sense is flabbergasting.
 

Shervan360

Member
Sep 1, 2019
135
39
101
The idea that Ukraine could not defend itself for years in a full scale war against Russia without aid is not a surprise. That the Russians have performed so badly against a far smaller country and have lost the war in every strategic sense is flabbergasting.

Really?
So why is Crimea in Russia's possession/occupation after 10 years?
Why are new parts of Ukrainian soil lost?



 
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