I have decided to start a new thread discussing the financial report and release timings from 3 foundry service providers, namely TSMC, Samsung and late comer, Intel.
Above table are summarized from Intel Tech Tour regrading IC's development cycle. The same cycle should be applied to TSMC's cycle. The only thing I added is regarding after OEMs tape-out the design and enter stage of HVM. As you can see from the table below, OEMs are working closely with TSMC's timeline. As soon as TSMC announced start of HVM, OEMs will start production immediately. The reasons behind are beacuse OEMs are well aware of benefits of newer process node and they design their SoC/GPU to take advantages of PPA from newer node.
TSMC: King of Advanced Process
Samsung LSI + Foundry: 2nd Player in Foundry Business
IFS: New Challenger to become No.2
Don't be fool by above financial data, according to Intel's CFO:-
Times (2.5 years) | Cycle | Stage | Details |
---|---|---|---|
T - 30m | Design | Definition | Features / Performance / Power |
T - 24m | Fab | A0 Tape-In | |
T - 15m | Fab | Power On | |
T - 12m | Post Silicon Validation | ES1 / Alpha | Board Bring Up & Early Val Alpha Validation |
ES2 / Beta | Beta Validation | ||
QS | QS Validation | ||
Customers Image Freeze | PRQ / PV | Prod Pilot & Test | |
T | HVM | ||
T + 12m (3.5years) | Shipping |
Above table are summarized from Intel Tech Tour regrading IC's development cycle. The same cycle should be applied to TSMC's cycle. The only thing I added is regarding after OEMs tape-out the design and enter stage of HVM. As you can see from the table below, OEMs are working closely with TSMC's timeline. As soon as TSMC announced start of HVM, OEMs will start production immediately. The reasons behind are beacuse OEMs are well aware of benefits of newer process node and they design their SoC/GPU to take advantages of PPA from newer node.
TSMC: King of Advanced Process
TSMC's 2024 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Total based on Nodes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
N7/N6 | $3.59 b | $3.54 b | |||
N5/N4/N4P | $6.98 b | $7.29 b | |||
N3B/N3E | $1.7 b | $3.12 b | |||
Total based on Quarter | $12.27 b | $13.95 b |
TSMC's 2023 Process Node | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Total based on Nodes | FY2022 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N7/N6 | $3.34 b | $3.61 b | $2.76 b | $3.34 b | $13.05 b | $20.49 b |
N5/N4/N4P | $5.18 b | $4.7 b | $6.39 b | $6.87 b | $23.14 b | $19.73 b |
N3B | NA | NA | $1.03 b | $2.94 b | $3.97 b | 0 |
Total based on Quarter | $8.52 b | $8.31 b | $10.18 b | $13.15 b | $40.16 b | $40.22 b |
Node | HVM's Date | OEM's First Shipment Date | Products |
---|---|---|---|
N4P | Q4 2022 | Q4 2023 | Qualcomm's SD 8 Gen 3 |
Mediatek's Dimensity 9300 | |||
2024 | AMD's Zen5 and RDNA4 ? | ||
Intel's Battlemage | |||
Q3 2024 | Qualcomm's SD X Elite | ||
AMD's Strix Point ? | |||
Q4 2024 | AMD's Turin 128xZen5 ? | ||
Q1 2025 | AMD's Kraken Point ? | ||
N3B | Sept 2022 | Q3 2023 | Apple's A17 Pro |
Q4 2023 | Apple's M3, M3 Pro & M3 Max | ||
Q4 2024 | Intel's ArrowLake 8P+16E | ||
Intel's Lunar Lake | |||
Q4 2025 | Intel's ArrowLake 8P+32E ? | ||
2025 | Apple's M4, M4 Pro & M4 Max ? | ||
N3E | Q4 2023 | Q3 2024 | Apple's A18 & A18 Pro |
AMD's Turin Dense 192xZen5c ? | |||
Q4 2024 | nVidia's Blackwell ? | ||
Qualcomm's SD 8 Gen 4 ? | |||
Mediatek's Dimensity 9400 ? | |||
2025 | AMD's Sarlak | ||
AMD's RDNA5 | |||
Google's Tensor G5 | |||
N3P | H2 2024 | Q3 2025 | Apple's A19 Pro ? |
Q4 2025 | Qualcomm's SD 8 Gen 5 ? | ||
2026 | AMD's Venice/Zen6 16xZen6 CCD ? | ||
Intel's Celestial | |||
Tesla's FSD HWD 5.0 | |||
N2 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2026 | Apple's A20 Pro ? |
Q4 2026 | Intel's Nova Lake 16P+32E ? | ||
2027 | AMD's Venice/Zen6c 32xZen6 CCD ? | ||
N2P | H1 2026 | Q1 2027 | ? |
A16 | H2 2026? | ? | ? |
Intel's Sapphire Rapids | AMD's Phoenix | AMD's Strix Point | Apple's M1 Max | Apple's M3 Max | Apple's M4 Max | nVidia's AD102 | nVidia's GB202 | nVidia's H100/H200 | nVidia's B100 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Date | Q1 2023 | Q1 2023 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2021 | Q4 2023 | 2025 ? | Q4 2022 | Q4 2024 ? | Q4 2023 | Q4 2024 ? |
Process Node | Intel 7 | N4 | N4P | N5 | N3B | N3B | 4N | N3E | 4N | N3E |
Die Size | 400 mm2 | 178 mm2 | 225 mm2 | 432 mm2 | ~ 531 mm2 | ? | 609 mm2 | ? | 814 mm2 | ? |
Transistors | 12 B | 25 B | ~ 32 B | 57 B | 92 B | ? | 76.3 B | ? | 80 B | ? |
Effective Density (MTs/mm2) | 30 | 140.4 | 131.9 | 173.3 | ? | 125.3 | ? | 98.3 | ? | |
+% vs M3 Max | x 5.78 | + 23.4% | + 31.9% | + 38.3% | + 76.3% |
Samsung LSI + Foundry: 2nd Player in Foundry Business
Samsung Device Solution's 2023 Revenue (Tri KRW) | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Total | FY2023 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Device Solutions | $23.14 | |||||
- Memory | $17.49 | |||||
System LSI + Foundry | $5.65 | |||||
Convert to USD | $4.09 b |
Samsung Device Solution's 2023 Revenue (Tri KRW) | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Total | FY2022 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Device Solutions | $13.73 | $14.73 | $16.44 | $21.69 | $98.46 | |
- Memory | $8.92 | $8.97 | $10.53 | $15.71 | $68.53 | |
System LSI + Foundry | $4.81 | $5.76 | $5.91 | $5.98 | $22.46 | $29.93 |
Convert to USD | $3.58 b | $4.29 b | $4.4 b | $4.5 b | $16.77 b | $22.53 b |
IFS: New Challenger to become No.2
IFS's 2024 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Total - e $16b |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | $4.4 b | ||||
Operating Income | - $2.5 b |
IFS's 2023 Total Revenue | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | $4.8 b | $4.2 b | $4.7 b | $5.2 b | $18.9 b |
Operating Income | - $2.4 b | - $1.9 b | - $1.4 b | - $1.2 b | - |
Don't be fool by above financial data, according to Intel's CFO:-
Intel’s internal business units will now have a customer-supplier relationship with the manufacturing business, Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said on an investor call.
Based on that model, Intel will be the second largest foundry next year with manufacturing revenue of more than $20 billion, he said.
Node | MR's Date | Availability | CPU | Shipping |
---|---|---|---|---|
Intel 4 | Q4 2022 | Meteor Lake | Q4 2023 | |
Intel 3 | H2 2023 | Granite Rapids | 2024 ? | |
Sierra Forest | H1 2024 ? | |||
Intel 20A | H1 2024 | Late 2024 Products | Arrow Lake 6P | Q1 2025 ? |
Intel 18A | H2 2024 | Late 2025 Products | Clearwater Forest | 2025 ? |
Panther Lake | Q4 2025 ? | |||
Diamond Rapids | 2026 ? | |||
Intel 18A-P | 2025 | Nova Lake 8P+16E ? | Q4 2026 ? | |
Intel 14A | Late 2026 Risk | ? | ||
Intel 14A-E | 2027 Risk | ? |
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