I didn’t say my sources are always superior - paying attention to the polls now is pointless as I’ve already said. RCP has always been a trash poll aggregator though.He's got some of the dumbest takes in this subforum; it takes some real chops to compete with the few remaining RWNJs.
@gothuevos is a negative Nancy, but I don't think he's a moron. He could just be trolling for all I know.
Funny how superior your sources always are. I actually don't know much about RCP, but they list the polls they source. The Economist is a respected British magazine, but we have no idea what their methodology here is.
538 seems to be less relevant after Nate Silver left; I don't see any presidential polling like in the past. They do have Biden's approval polling, which is up a couple ticks this month. They did publish a recent article about how it's too early to care all that much about polling:
Trump is leading the polls, but there's plenty of time for Biden to catch up
Early polls show President Joe Biden losing to former President Donald Trump. Does that matter?abcnews.go.com
Fair enough, I wasn't familiar enough with RCP and wasn't trying to endorse their work. Mainly I don't think there's much evidence to make the claim Biden has "taken the lead" in polls we aren't supposed to even care about. Maybe he has, maybe he hasn't but it'd be nice if The Economist shared which polls they base that on.RCP failed miserably in the mid-term elections and were also very biased in 2020. They were extremely arrogant about their methodology on twitter, and IIRC had to delete some extremely dumb tweets afterwards. Here's their 2022 projection:
View attachment 95742
IIRC they removed pollsters that were supposedly left biased from their average, and then afterwards still adjusted their polling results as if their average still had bias.
While all this extra error means individual polls are noisy, the averages — contrary to Biden's suggestion — are not inherently biased from extra noise. And the averages paint the most damning picture for him. Biden is currently polling behind Trump in all the key swing states. That includes a nearly 10-point deficit in Florida, 5 points in Arizona, 4 points in Michigan and Wisconsin and about half a point in Pennsylvania. The president leads by small margins in Minnesota, Virginia and New Hampshire.
I don't think Biden is winning, RCP are just bad, and right wing biased, while claiming that they're not. I think that the Biden is in a very bad position, and I think that the Democratic party should've replaced him with a different candidate. He's too old, and I understand why that would scare a lot of people.Fair enough, I wasn't familiar enough with RCP and wasn't trying to endorse their work. Mainly I don't think there's much evidence to make the claim Biden has "taken the lead" in polls we aren't supposed to even care about. Maybe he has, maybe he hasn't but it'd be nice if The Economist shared which polls they base that on.
They missed all of the close races, in the same direction, using the same wrong methodology.As for that 2022 Senate map, they missed on 2 coin-flip races in NV and GA. That's not a massive error.
She really crushed the margin. Embryo personhood is such a deeply unpopular policy....I hope Republicans across the country endorse it.
It's really the dumbest political strategy ever, and coupled with the "we overturned Roe and will ban abortion nationwide" I just can't really understand why they think this is somehow a winner.
I don't think they think this is a political winner, I think Republicans are reaping the consequences of their campaigning.It's really the dumbest political strategy ever, and coupled with the "we overturned Roe and will ban abortion nationwide" I just can't really understand why they think this is somehow a winner.
It seems extremely likely that they are going to reverse that ruling on standing grounds if for no other reason than it would unleash chaos nationwide.They finally caught the car.
Many of them are such abject cowards obviously devoid of actual conviction in their "heartfelt beliefs" that they are now trying to back off from it. Do not let them. I hope every single Democrat candidate uses the taking away of abortion rights as a weapon in every single election moving forward. I expect to see nonstop abortion rights taken away ads this season. I hope their cowardly backing off drives off some mushy middlers. We'll see what the Supreme Court says shortly about Mifepristone.
She won the seat in a special election. The previous Republican seat holder was convicted of voter fraud.
So this must be bad for Biden.. right? Because he’s old?
Lol why would it stop them from voting? They love criminalsShe won the seat in a special election. The previous Republican seat holder was convicted of voter fraud.
She won the seat in a special election. The previous Republican seat holder was convicted of voter fraud.
Maybe anguish over his favorite country, sent him on his way.Well Joe Lieberman is dead so that's probably it for No Labels.
Yeah, "You don't have standing" is their favorite ruling against anything that goes against the Republican agenda. The federal court in Florida just used it against Disney vs Florida for example.It seems extremely likely that they are going to reverse that ruling on standing grounds if for no other reason than it would unleash chaos nationwide.
Now I imagine you're thinking 'well that never stopped them before!' but really, the level of chaos that would come with 'everyone has standing for everything' is something even these maniacs won't want to do. Alito (maybe Thomas) would probably do it because he would replace the standard with 'you have standing if you're doing something Republicans like' but the other slightly less transparently hackish ones won't go along with it.
Not sure how much stock to put in these polls this far out. It seems like Trump has a large percentage of the US voting population brainwashed.
Trump Leads Biden in Six of Seven Swing States, WSJ Poll Finds
My going theory at this point is the people who may be somewhat unhappy with Biden but dislike Trump aren't going to spend 15 minutes answering polls so we are ending up with samples that are somewhat more pro-Trump than the actual universe of voters. With Trump increasingly out there and having had a lot of primaries this could shift and Trump dislikers could become Trump haters who actually answer. Given the nearly across the board Trump underperformance in the primaries vs the polling virtually everywhere this seems plausible. Anyway polling this far out, especially state polling, is quite noisy and should probably just be viewed via averages and trends. Even then I wouldn't be taking it to the bank.
Weird to watch the online discourse the last couple days from angry leftists who said they would under no circumstances vote for Biden again totally losing their shit at the Biden campaign increasingly reaching out to Trump hating R voters who punched for Haley.
Just sounds like major copium to the fact that Biden is just as unpopular, possibly even MORE unpopular than Trump at this point. How do you also explain Trump gaining in polls with minorities and under 30, demographics typically one would not associate being pro-Trump? The actual numbers may be off, but the trend should be alarming to all of us.
Biden winning at this point should be looked at as a large upset. He's done.