I think Biden campaign is coming to grips with those angry leftists not having any spine and will screw over Biden at the first chance they get.
So we've gotta get some unsure about Trump voters.
Weird to watch the online discourse the last couple days from angry leftists who said they would under no circumstances vote for Biden again totally losing their shit at the Biden campaign increasingly reaching out to Trump hating R voters who punched for Haley.
I think Biden campaign is coming to grips with those angry leftists not having any spine and will screw over Biden at the first chance they get.
So we've gotta get some unsure about Trump voters.
Here's our master electoral prognosticator in June of 2022:Just sounds like major copium to the fact that Biden is just as unpopular, possibly even MORE unpopular than Trump at this point. How do you also explain Trump gaining in polls with minorities and under 30, demographics typically one would not associate being pro-Trump? The actual numbers may be off, but the trend should be alarming to all of us.
Biden winning at this point should be looked at as a large upset. He's done.
@gothuevos predicting a blowout where Republicans pick up 18 Senate seats in 2022. Actual results? Republicans lose one.IMO it will only backfire and feed their victim narrative.
Democrats have zero good will left, for better or worse. Did you see the CA primaries? The progressive DA from SF recalled and a former Republican turned Dem Lite with a strong showing in the LA mayor primary.
There should be major red alerts going off with the DNC right now.
I was being tongue in cheek with some of my earlier comments about GOP supermajorities, but now I think it's a real possibility they may have enough in both chambers to fulfill their fantasy of impeach and convict of both Biden and Harris. It's going to be a blowout.
Here's our master electoral prognosticator in June of 2022:
@gothuevos predicting a blowout where Republicans pick up 18 Senate seats in 2022. Actual results? Republicans lose one.
Yeah and the criminal who is incumbent sheriff of LA county only got 34%.
Local elections are highly idiosyncratic and people (including the national press) shouldn't be trying to convert them into whatever narrative they're looking for.
Happy to admit when I'm wrong, and I was definitely wrong back then.
But this is my gut feeling/prediction moving forward: it will be close but Trump wins in November. Just like 2016 and 2020, it will be a relatively small number of votes across various swing states that make the difference. The actual states, I'm not sure, but you know the usual suspects.
The issue I have is not that you were wrong here - everyone is wrong sometimes - it's that I see no evidence that you've stopped to think about WHY you were so wrong and if you might want to recalibrate your thinking.Happy to admit when I'm wrong, and I was definitely wrong back then.
But this is my gut feeling/prediction moving forward: it will be close but Trump wins in November. Just like 2016 and 2020, it will be a relatively small number of votes across various swing states that make the difference. The actual states, I'm not sure, but you know the usual suspects.
I think Dems flip the house but GOP narrowly takes the Senate. WV, Ohio and Montana Senate spots guaranteed to go red as is, so that's probably enough right there to seal the deal.
Happy to admit when I'm wrong, and I was definitely wrong back then.
But this is my gut feeling/prediction moving forward: it will be close but Trump wins in November. Just like 2016 and 2020, it will be a relatively small number of votes across various swing states that make the difference. The actual states, I'm not sure, but you know the usual suspects.
I think Dems flip the house but GOP narrowly takes the Senate. WV, Ohio and Montana Senate spots guaranteed to go red as is, so that's probably enough right there to seal the deal.
and if you might want to recalibrate your thinking.
Biden winning at this point should be looked at as a large upset. He's done.
Hm. Maybe I'm not picking up what you're putting down.I'm not predicting a Trump blow out, am I?
A narrow Trump win, plus GOP controlling the Senate by a few seats is hardly hysterics.
You predicted a massive GOP Senate win several months closer to the election in 2022 and not only did they not win big, the GOP actually lost. That seems relevant here, no?I'm not predicting a Trump blow out, am I?
A narrow Trump win, plus GOP controlling the Senate by a few seats is hardly hysterics.
Obviously every vote counts but majority of no longer orange monkey supporters will never vote for a Dem. They will probably write in Reagan or go RFK Jr. The ones Biden have to convince are the crazy leftists that throwing of their vote is a big mistake.Trump has basically told Haley voters to go fuck themselves and that he doesn't want their votes. Would be political malpractice for Biden not to try and scoop them up.
You predicted a massive GOP Senate win several months closer to the election in 2022 and not only did they not win big, the GOP actually lost. That seems relevant here, no?
The ones Biden have to convince are the crazy leftists that throwing of their vote is a big mistake.
Three slam dunk pickups for the GOP weren't in play back then.
Obviously every vote counts but majority of no longer orange monkey supporters will never vote for a Dem. They will probably write in Reagan or go RFK Jr. The ones Biden have to convince are the crazy leftists that throwing of their vote is a big mistake.
So you are confirming that your prediction was extra stupid?
"Angry leftists" not voting Biden (or voting Trump) is childish. But what else is new. I heard the same tantrums from Bernie zealots in 2016. "That'll show 'em!" Yeah, all it will do is get someone worse in there that goes even *more* against your own interests. That'll show 'em indeed. Same as environmentalists voting for the fraud Green Party--even if they were not full of bs, you are tossing at least half a vote toward the party that positively takes glee in revoking environmental protections.
I vote lesser evil in exactly the same way I pick the least worst way home in rush hour traffic. Which one sucks least, go that way. Pretty damn simple.
Circumstances changing between when you made a prediction last time and the election seems highly relevant to my point, haha.I'm not predicting a Trump blow out, am I?
A narrow Trump win, plus GOP controlling the Senate by a few seats is hardly hysterics.
Everyone seems to gloss over this important point...GOP voter registration is outpacing the Dems in nearly all the key swing states...where Biden's lead is already slim and just within the margin of error.
Everyone is making the same mistake as 2016, all over again. I bet Biden wins the popular vote by at least 5 mil, but loses all the key swing states again. GOP voter registration in Florida, NC and PA is greatly outpacing the Dems. He probably wins those 3 in addition to Ohio. Does picking up the rust belt and maybe AZ get Biden to 270?
IMO there are going to be a lot of shocked/disappointed people again.
it's funny how the liberal media doesn't report that the co-leader of this WSJ poll is also a senior member of Trump's super PAC and is now becoming a senior adviser to the Trump campaign. I'm starting to think this myth of a liberal media is a total fraudulent claim. Oh wait, I know it is.Not sure how much stock to put in these polls this far out. It seems like Trump has a large percentage of the US voting population brainwashed.
Trump Leads Biden in Six of Seven Swing States, WSJ Poll Finds
Some people that are perhaps too online don't understand power and the idea of being a "gettable" and reliable voter. If you threaten to withhold your vote (and are a generally unreliable voter) over everything, eventually people stop listening to you, because those positions can never be satisfied. But also, if you want to enact change, you need sympathetic ears in power. Helping to get the better candidate to place second in our system (ie, first loser) only ensures that your positions get locked out, and for a time, you can only scream from the outside as some "morally pure" activist.I think Biden campaign is coming to grips with those angry leftists not having any spine and will screw over Biden at the first chance they get.
So we've gotta get some unsure about Trump voters.
"Don't vote shame me."Obviously every vote counts but majority of no longer orange monkey supporters will never vote for a Dem. They will probably write in Reagan or go RFK Jr. The ones Biden have to convince are the crazy leftists that throwing of their vote is a big mistake.