Israel: We Are At War

[pmv]

Agree 100%. Military driven "regime change" from outside simply doesnt work unless the initiating country invades and massively dilutes or displaces the native population, or there is a very large internal desire by the populous for it to happen and outside military action is just a catalyst for what is already brewing.

See:
Vietnam
Afghanistan

Just sort of musing aloud, now, but wouldn't Germany and Japan be counter-examples? The difference there would seem to be the level of commitment from the invading powers - those involved had "skin in the game", i.e. real vital interest in the old regime being toppled and a better one constructed.

What clearly _doesn't_ work is to get sucked in step-by-step without thinking about what you are doing, or get drawn in as a result of political trickery coming from vested interests (as with Vietnam and Iraq, respectively), and only then find you haven't got sufficient backing from your own population/electorate to do what's necessary to make things work.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

I thought that was Afghanistan? (saw off the British, the Russians, and the US).

Given that Vietnam defeated the Mongol Hordes, the US, and China, I wonder how a fantasy global conflict match-up between Vietnam and Afghanistan would turn out? I assume it would depend entirely on who had home-ground advantage?

It's the ME in general, or more specifically the mountainous parts of the ME. The whole place is a death-bowl for foreign armies.

 

[kage69]

Bernie dropping some hard truth as per usual.

https://imgur.com/7imopwV

 

[amenx]

Except for geography. Afghanistan is like Switzerland, protected by its hilly, mountainous terrain from being easily overrun . . . or even governed.

So is much of Iran.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Some deets from reddit:

From u/ImperatorEternal - There are now clear signs that the U.S. Air Force is executing a large-scale stealth bomber mission — potentially an imminent long-range strike. If it is not a strike, the US is at least going to lengths to make it look like one.

• Two separate flights of B-2 stealth bombers, each consisting of 3–4 aircraft, departed Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri around 2:00 AM EST.

• The flights were supported by a massive post-takeoff aerial refueling operation involving at least 6-8 KC-135/KC-46 tankers — an unusually high number even for long-range missions, suggesting a large number of heavily loaded aircraft. GBU-57/MOP weigh in at 30k lbs and B-2s have been configured to carry two.

• A second refueling arc took place over the Pacific near San Francisco between 6:30–7:30 AM EST, involving at least 5 more tankers.

• A third aerial refueling NOTAM in the shape of a B-2 holding pattern is active over the Hawaii region around 11:00 AM EST.

• This route — Whiteman → Pacific → Hawaii → onward west — is consistent with stealth strike doctrine and bypasses contested Eurasian airspace.

• If the mission continues west at current pacing, a time-on-target over Iran would likely fall between 6:00–10:00 PM EST (2:30–6:30 AM Iran time). Sunrise is at 4:54am local time.

• President Trump is reportedly scheduled to National Security Meeting in the Oval at 6:00 PM EST, a detail that aligns suspiciously well with a possible strike window.

• Edit: /u/FoShizzleShinDig/ points out that if there are in-fact MOPs on board the B-2 cannot safely land with them on board, and would have to jettison them. While the B-2 could technically land, it wouldn’t exactly be safe or advisable, and there’s no clear precedent of doing it with live MOPs. At least none I’ve heard of. Please feel deee to correct me. The immediate refueling makes this scenario more likely, increasing the odds of an actual strike mission, nor repositioning, or at least one intended to look like one.

This is not a drill-sized movement. B-2s almost never fly in numbers like this, and certainly not with this level of global tanker support, unless something significant is underway.

With B-52s and F-22s already prepositioned in the region, and three carrier battle groups, if it is not a strike, it is intended to look like one, and certainly would appear to have the ability to become one should the order be given.

The public nature suggests Iran has been given one last chance at diplomacy.

 

[amenx]

Some deets from reddit:

From u/ImperatorEternal - There are now clear signs that the U.S. Air Force is executing a large-scale stealth bomber mission — potentially an imminent long-range strike. If it is not a strike, the US is at least going to lengths to make it look like one.
....

• If the mission continues west at current pacing, a time-on-target over Iran would likely fall between 6:00–10:00 PM EST (2:30–6:30 AM Iran time). Sunrise is at 4:54am local time.
...

The public nature suggests Iran has been given one last chance at diplomacy.

Problem is the Iranians are dealing with an idiot of a US president who can never get his words straight. Are they to wait until the 2 weeks are up for diplomacy? With the planes in the air all this time? Or will Trump say fuck it and bomb them tomorrow?

 

[K1052]

Problem is the Iranians are dealing with an idiot of a US president who can never get his words straight. Are they to wait until the 2 weeks are up for diplomacy? With the planes in the air all this time? Or will Trump say fuck it and bomb them tomorrow?

Nobody knows. Probably not even Trump.

 

[Josh128]

Just sort of musing aloud, now, but wouldn't Germany and Japan be counter-examples? The difference there would seem to be the level of commitment from the invading powers - those involved had "skin in the game", i.e. real vital interest in the old regime being toppled and a better one constructed.

What clearly _doesn't_ work is to get sucked in step-by-step without thinking about what you are doing, or get drawn in as a result of political trickery coming from vested interests (as with Vietnam and Iraq, respectively), and only then find you haven't got sufficient backing from your own population/electorate to do what's necessary to make things work.

Japan was due to the atom bomb, 2 of them to be correct, and even after those, much of the Japanese military refused to accept the emperors declaration of surrender. In fact there was even a poorly executed attempt at a last minute coup to prevent the radio broadcast of the surrender. Germany was fractured into two states, one communist and one democratic, and the war that brought that about left Europe in literal pieces requiring years of healing and rebuilding.

So these still arent exactly shining examples of regime change through outside military might.

 

[pmv]

Japan was due to the atom bomb, 2 of them to be correct, and even after those, much of the Japanese military refused to accept the emperors declaration of surrender. In fact there was even a poorly executed attempt at a last minute coup to prevent the radio broadcast of the surrender. Germany was fractured into two states, one communist and one democratic, and the war that brought that about left Europe in literal pieces requiring years of healing and rebuilding.

So these still arent exactly shining examples of regime change through outside military might.

Well I'd argue that they were _successful_ as far as changing a country that had previously been fairly despotic for most of its history (maybe even more so in the case of Japan than Germany) into a well-behaved democratic state. But they both took immense investment and work and long-term rebuilding (and probably benefited greatly from the fact everyone had moved on to new global divides and struggles, i.e. the Cold War).

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Problem is the Iranians are dealing with an idiot of a US president who can never get his words straight. Are they to wait until the 2 weeks are up for diplomacy? With the planes in the air all this time? Or will Trump say fuck it and bomb them tomorrow?

They'll likely be dropped this afternoon.

 

[amenx]

They'll likely be dropped this afternoon.

He'd have to be really stupid not to see how badly this would hurt US cred in negotiations with other adversaries around the world. We already know he's stupid, but how stupid is I guess what we will have to find out.

 

[K1052]

He'd have to be really stupid not to see how badly this would hurt US cred in negotiations with other adversaries around the world. We already know he's stupid, but how stupid is I guess what we will have to find out.

They just totally botched negotiations with the Japanese by suddenly demanding they spend an extra 0.5% of GDP on defense above what they originally asked for. In short: these are not smart people.

 

[you2]

They just totally botched negotiations with the Japanese by suddenly demanding they spend an extra 0.5% of GDP on defense above what they originally asked for. In short: these are not smart people.

The trump method of negotiating - if they give you what you ask for then you get to ask for more. If they don't then you attempt to bully them until they give you what you ask for and then rinse and repeat.

 

[amenx]

When the 2 weeks are up, he will have to bomb them. His ego wont allow him to chicken out.

 

[Josh128]

Well I'd argue that they were _successful_ as far as changing a country that had previously been fairly despotic for most of its history (maybe even more so in the case of Japan than Germany) into a well-behaved democratic state. But they both took immense investment and work and long-term rebuilding (and probably benefited greatly from the fact everyone had moved on to new global divides and struggles, i.e. the Cold War).

Plus, it was basically necessary, because if Japan and Germany had won, we'd all be speaking German or Japanese at this point. Totally different situation vs Iran, Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc.

 

[amenx]

Israel says they cant wait 2 weeks. Want to take out Fordo now. With that, nukes?

Israel pressing for swift action on Fordo nuclear site, may act without US — sources

* * *

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[K1052]

Welp

Guess we are at war with Iran now.

 

[Fenixgoon]

Welp

Guess we are at war with Iran now.

Did something happen? I checked CNN and NPR and only saw US moving B2s into the region.

Would be awfully nice for Congress to take back it's exclusive power to declare war right now...

 

[K1052]

Did something happen? I checked CNN and NPR and only saw US moving B2s into the region.

Would be awfully nice for Congress to take back it's exclusive power to declare war right now...

Trump says we bombed Iran’s nuclear sites.

 

[Wreckem]

Did something happen? I checked CNN and NPR and only saw US moving B2s into the region.

Would be awfully nice for Congress to take back it's exclusive power to declare war right now...

The US just completed bombing three nuclear sites in Iran. Essentially Donald Trump has declared war on Iran by doing this. The current admin is foolish if they think Iran won’t retaliate against both Israel and the US. People are delusional if they don’t think Iran has the means to commit mass terrorism across the globe

What the fuck is up with the GOP and its preemptive wars that always end up unjustified.

 

[K1052]

Every tanker in the Hormuz prolly just stepped on the gas.

 

[Thunder 57]

Every tanker in the Hormuz prolly just stepped on the gas.

Fuck zionists fuck trump!

 

[Brainonska511]

Trump says we bombed Iran’s nuclear sites.

Just a whole bunch of idiots and lunatics in charge in the White House.

 

[Jaskalas]

"War is Peace" message incoming in 3.. 2.. 1..

• USA ATTACKS IRAN
• TRUMP WAR PRESIDENT

 

[UNCjigga]

I just saw John Bolton dancing a jig and singing down the street.