Israel: We Are At War

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mikeymikec

Lifer
May 19, 2011
20,219
14,828
136
Putin's goal in Ukraine is regime change and to destroy the Ukrainian state. Any nuclear armed country facing a foe with such aims will probably resort to their deterrent in the last extremity. For the purposes of this yes I think Putin would not have invaded trying to topple the place if there was even a slim chance a Ukrainian ICBM is gonna loose a half dozen 500kt MIRVs on Moscow.

There's faulty logic here: "the last extremity". The whole point of a deterrent is to deter, not some kind of last gasp that doesn't actually save anyone or anything, which brings back the point I already made about the use of nuclear weapons will always be controversial.

America's use of A-bombs was a deterrent measure, the logic being that thousands die so millions may live through Japan's early surrender. If Ukraine had nukes, then its leader would have to gamble on the support of the West if they used them. If Zelenskyy had approached say Biden in secret to ask if he would have his support in such a scenario, Biden would have said no, and I think most Western leaders would have said the same (right or wrong). Therefore Zelenskyy would have had to just roll the dice and act like Putin was calling his bluff and then just nuke the bastard.

If Putin attacked the UK tomorrow, Starmer would not pull out the nukes. If Putin nuked the UK, then yes, Starmer would likely respond in kind, but that's about the only scenario that wouldn't be a controversial use of nukes, and so therefore the likes of Russia have a lot of rope before they have to start worrying about nukes, especially now that the US isn't going to have anyone's back except those who either have bought Donald's support or is someone he idolises.

 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
14,828
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Nuclear non-proliferation has worked well in the 21st Century, and we want to keep it that way. It's much easier for 9 countries in this exclusive club to all understand MAD, than for a couple dozen countries where it just takes one madman that DGAF. As a thought experiment, what if every new entry to the nuclear club was like a North Korea and you added one per year? Would deterrence continue to work?

IIRC the most likely scenario of a nuclear war is between India and Pakistan. They're neighbors who hate each other, and India has the conventional strength advantage. If backed up against an "existential" wall, who knows for sure what Pakistan is willing to do? Is the status quo more likely with 9 countries or two dozen?

I don't know if desperation is the right term, but you can prevent Iran from getting nukes but you can't put the genie back in the bottle afterwards (i.e. NK will never give them up). The other concern is that if just a couple more countries get nukes, many others would reject non-proliferation.

To be clear, I'm not arguing for the U.S. strikes on Iran. I'm saying that deterrence does work, but NNP is even more important.

Though the same treaty that demands non-proliferation also required the existing nuclear powers to work towards disarmament. That aspect of it had its brief moment, and then stalled again, and seems to have been entirely forgotten. Not sure one can expect the non-proliferation part to continue to be observed indefinitely while the disarmament part is neglected. After a while it starts to look a bit self-serving. Especially when the existing nuclear powers keep doing things like this (or Iraq, or Ukraine for that matter)
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,653
44,264
136
There's faulty logic here: "the last extremity". The whole point of a deterrent is to deter, not some kind of last gasp that doesn't actually save anyone or anything, which brings back the point I already made about the use of nuclear weapons will always be controversial.

Missed the point where I said he would not invaded, deterrence maintained.


America's use of A-bombs was a deterrent measure, the logic being that thousands die so millions may live through Japan's early surrender.

That is not deterrence. It is use of military force, however exotic, to force the capitulation of an adversary who does not possess similar capability.

If Ukraine had nukes, then its leader would have to gamble on the support of the West if they used them. If Zelenskyy had approached say Biden in secret to ask if he would have his support in such a scenario, Biden would have said no, and I think most Western leaders would have said the same (right or wrong). Therefore Zelenskyy would have had to just roll the dice and act like Putin was calling his bluff and then just nuke the bastard.

If Ukraine had nukes Putin would have mostly stayed out except for some fiddling around the edges. He would not have tried to go to Kyiv and kill Zelensky if Moscow and St. Petersburg could be ashes in 10 minutes.


If Putin attacked the UK tomorrow, Starmer would not pull out the nukes. If Putin nuked the UK, then yes, Starmer would likely respond in kind, but that's about the only scenario that wouldn't be a controversial use of nukes, and so therefore the likes of Russia have a lot of rope before they have to start worrying about nukes, especially now that the US isn't going to have anyone's back except those who either have bought Donald's support or is someone he idolises.

Two nuclear states facing each other does not preclude limited conventional clashes. Key word being "limited". Preventing escalation that could lead to an exchange is paramount in both parties minds.
 

pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
14,828
9,741
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In an interview Sunday with NBC News’ Meet the Press, the US vice-president was asked if the US was now at war with Iran.

“We’re not at war with Iran,” Vance replied. “We’re at war with Iran’s nuclear program.”

In much the same way that Japan was not at war with the US, they were at war with the US navy?
 
Reactions: pauldun170

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,653
44,264
136
Dec 10, 2005
27,745
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Shipowners and insurers probably making some decisions before the Iranians even possibly do anything. Iran can't literally close the straight but it can make it too risky to transit and if the insurers bail then it's the same thing.

https://archive.is/oKrci

There is also increasing risk from GPS denial which reported played a role in to tankers colliding a few days ago.
Insurers and whatnot also don't want their property (ie, the tanker) getting caught on the wrong side of the straight if Iran does follow through with closing it.
 
Reactions: K1052

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,739
2,613
126
LMAO! ... MIGA?! wtf!. It's always been about regime change, we're the party of war.

Sincerely, MAGA .

'MIGA" is not "America first"

America needs a regime change… desperately.
Maga opposed the strikes and war in general. Trump has avoided conflict up until now. In fact when Iran bombed our base in Iraq during his first term in 2020, we chose not to retaliate.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
72,256
32,691
136
Shipowners and insurers probably making some decisions before the Iranians even possibly do anything. Iran can't literally close the straight but it can make it too risky to transit and if the insurers bail then it's the same thing.

https://archive.is/oKrci

There is also increasing risk from GPS denial which reported played a role in to tankers colliding a few days ago.
Iran can literally close the strait. The strait is very shallow and building a dike across it is about the same level of effort as digging a large copper or gold mine. Definitely within the capacity of Iran to execute.
 
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K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
51,653
44,264
136
Iran can literally close the straight. The straight is very shallow and building a dike across it is about the same level of effort as digging a large copper or gold mine. Definitely within the capacity of Iran to execute.

Even during the Tanker War the straight was not "closed". Though Iranian capabilities in this regard have increased a lot so keeping it usable will be a much larger task for the navy and not without risk.
 

amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
4,378
2,700
136
Israel in my view was never really worried about Irans bomb as much as they were about Irans strategic influence over the region, particularly over Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. These countries, with Irans support, posed a major challenge to Israels hegemony and territorial ambitions (lebensraum). With these countries out of the way, basically neutralized, and a weaker Iran, Israel is free to expand its territory. Likely in Syria, parts of which they recently occupied. The international order has crumbled and the UN is as impotent as the League of Nations in the 30s.

Thats why Israel wants regime change in Iran. The potential for a bomb was just their excuse to go for regime change. They want a weak regime that will not stand in the way of their ambitions.
 
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