Israel: We Are At War

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Josh128

Senior member
Oct 14, 2022
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Like @brycejones posted, the 300 ft necessary for the main corridors was public knowledge. Heck, here is an article from several days before the attack. https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/17/middleeast/iran-fordow-nuclear-site-latam-hnk-intl "Its main halls are an estimated 80 to 90 meters (around 262 to 295 feet) beneath the ground"

Or there is this even earlier article, that puts them up to 360 feet below ground. https://www.csis.org/analysis/three-things-will-determine-irans-nuclear-future-fordow-just-one-them "Fordow is believed to be buried 80–110 meters underground, near Qom, and was built to withstand airstrikes."

Here is an article from 3.5 years ago: https://apnews.com/article/europe-m...iran-nuclear-dd40e4a610c2f35aff25353bbcf3a91c "But burying the facility under some 80 meters (260 feet) of dirt and rock while not informing international inspectors as required only heightened Western concerns."

Basically, to answer your question, how do I have better info? For starters, I can read.

Then, according to my Persian coworkers, triple that depth for the deepest corridors. Take their comments with a grain of salt though, since that could very well be internal Iranian TV propaganda.
US and Israeli intelligence do a lot more than just "read", before they decide to fly a several hundred million dollar top secret mission around the world.
 

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
29,321
29,660
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US and Israeli intelligence do a lot more than just "read", before they decide to fly a several hundred million dollar top secret mission around the world.

Yes they are unbelievably awesome at their jobs, it’s why the Israelis were blindsided by October 7th, and we found so many WMDs in Iraq in 2003. As just a couple of examples.

Earlier I posted a story from NPR that raises questions about how deep the MOP can actually penetrate rock like the site they were used at.

To be honest though it will be a long time before we definitively know one way or the other.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
40,314
9,890
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Yes they are unbelievably awesome at their jobs, it’s why the Israelis were blindsided by October 7th, and we found so many WMDs in Iraq in 2003. As just a couple of examples.

Earlier I posted a story from NPR that raises questions about how deep the MOP can actually penetrate rock like the site they were used at.

To be honest though it will be a long time before we definitively know one way or the other.
I doubt Iran knows yet.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,850
4,430
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US and Israeli intelligence do a lot more than just "read", before they decide to fly a several hundred million dollar top secret mission around the world.
Exactly, they also listen to a man with no knowledge or evidence but he proclaims to know the truth.
 

alien42

Lifer
Nov 28, 2004
12,843
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amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
4,389
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You actually believe Trump's hand picked sycophants? lol, silly boy.
I think he's too young to remember the lead up to the Iraq war and how stellar US and Israeli intel were on that. Regardless of that, any intel services (most of all the Israelis) routinely use disinformation to influence events in line with the policies of the ruling govt at the time.
 
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amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
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Not sure how determined the Iranians will be to get nuke capability, but one thing they will do is rebuild, re-stock and improve their MRBM systems. They've shown they can be a formidable deterrent on its own.

 

linkgoron

Platinum Member
Mar 9, 2005
2,592
1,236
136
Yes they are unbelievably awesome at their jobs, it’s why the Israelis were blindsided by October 7th, and we found so many WMDs in Iraq in 2003. As just a couple of examples.

Earlier I posted a story from NPR that raises questions about how deep the MOP can actually penetrate rock like the site they were used at.

To be honest though it will be a long time before we definitively know one way or the other.
October 7th info was there. Netanyahu's declared policy of letting Hamas grow as competition for the PA (including funneling money), as well as Hubris, and his coalition that is more intent on occupying the West Bank led to Gaza being treated as an afterthought and it seeped into the Military ranks.

I also agree that I would not trust Netanyahu's intel claims about Iran, unless they publicize it. He has made similar claims again Sadam and we've all seen how that turned out


In general though, it's quite clear that Trump would say how awesome the military strikes were no matter what. They might have been, of course, but I'm not sure if anyone knows how much damage was done. Iran also has a lot of time to move things around and prepare for an attack.
 

KMFJD

Lifer
Aug 11, 2005
31,842
50,183
136
Not sure how determined the Iranians will be to get nuke capability, but one thing they will do is rebuild, re-stock and improve their MRBM systems. They've shown they can be a formidable deterrent on its own.

If they do get nukes they wont be able to retaliate with BM since every launch could be a possible nuke...looks like they did a lot of damage with the conventional warheads though and there's not much that can stop the fast ones from getting through their protective 'shield'
 

Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
13,342
10,746
136
Watching LT Whiskey Pete's press conference this morning ... he sure is trying really hard to keep his job. Basically just yelling at the press over and over.

Nice propaganda video of a GBU57 test that blows up after penetrating 15-20 ft of dirt into a tunnel though ...

Meanwhile, Iran's HEU is in a different location than it was 2 weeks ago.
 
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KMFJD

Lifer
Aug 11, 2005
31,842
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Another day, more attrocities by israel

~More than 100 Palestinians were killed Wednesday across the Gaza Strip in Israeli attacks that struck civilians waiting for food aid, residential homes, and refugee camps, according to medical sources cited by Anadolu Agency and Wafa. Hundreds more were wounded.
 
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Josh128

Senior member
Oct 14, 2022
986
1,443
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I think he's too young to remember the lead up to the Iraq war and how stellar US and Israeli intel were on that. Regardless of that, any intel services (most of all the Israelis) routinely use disinformation to influence events in line with the policies of the ruling govt at the time.
Im 46, plenty old enough to remember Operation: Desert Storm.

I believe the leaders of the CIA & IAEA over Khamenei and plebs here who actually want the US to fail in missions like this just because they hate Trump. What you want and reality are two different things.

Im a realist, "wishes" dont influence my take either way. To not just think, but to push the idea that 14 30k lb "MOPs", which are so new as to have never been used in combat and whose test results remain classified even unto today, only caused "superficial/minimal" damage to the sites, is a pretty ignorant take, IMO.



Iran’s nuclear facilities “suffered enormous damage” from the U.S. airstrikes Saturday, but more extensive evaluation is needed, the head of the United Nations’s nuclear watchdog said Thursday.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,535
54,373
136
I believe the leaders of the CIA & IAEA over Khamenei and plebs here who actually want the US to fail in missions like this just because they hate Trump.

Im 46, plenty old enough to remember Operation: Desert Storm.
Probably a bad idea to believe the US government at this point. Doesn't mean you need to believe Iran instead but any rational and objective observer would know that neither is a credible source at this point.

I mean just the other day the DNI said there was no evidence Iran was building nukes only to have Trump flip out and then she changed her statement. That's an obvious indication that intelligence is being manipulated.
 
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Josh128

Senior member
Oct 14, 2022
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Its not just the US gov. Its also the Israelis and IAEA, as I pointed out. Israel probably has as many spies on Irans uranium enrichment activities as China has in the US. If it wasnt damaged, they wont continue to maintain that it was. They will call for more action.
Probably a bad idea to believe the US government at this point. Doesn't mean you need to believe Iran instead but any rational and objective observer would know that neither is a credible source at this point.

I mean just the other day the DNI said there was no evidence Iran was building nukes only to have Trump flip out and then she changed her statement. That's an obvious indication that intelligence is being manipulated.
 

HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
38,482
31,470
136
And heres one from today thats directly from the CIA, opposing your incorrect take and unofficial "leak".

You need to read very carefully
The heads of two key American intelligence agencies issued statements Wednesday on what they said was "new" intelligence on the damage resulting from the recent U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, each noting the Iranian program was likely to have been set back by "years."

In other words, we found someone who will tell us what we want to hear. It was not stated US intelligence is the source.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,535
54,373
136
Its not just the US gov. Its also the Israelis and IAEA, as I pointed out. Israel probably has as many spies on Irans uranium enrichment activities as China has in the US. If it wasnt damaged, they wont continue to maintain that it was. They will call for more action.
There could be lots of reasons they wouldn't admit if it wasn't, first and foremost that it would enrage their primary benefactor. The IAEA guy is clearly not speaking from any firsthand or even secondhand knowledge of the situation there.

My view is we don't know how much damage has been done and that's entirely expected as those assessments take time, especially in facilities we don't have access to, or at least non-covert access.

So no, I won't take the word of massive liars based on nothing more than their words. It would be insane to do that. I mean - can you imagine a world where someone would believe something Donald Trump said? How stupid would they have to be?
 
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Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
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brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
29,321
29,660
136
Im 46, plenty old enough to remember Operation: Desert Storm.

I believe the leaders of the CIA & IAEA over Khamenei and plebs here who actually want the US to fail in missions like this just because they hate Trump.
Conservatives are so fucking weird
 
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