Outrageous beat and in some ways, a crazier outlook. Nvidia's initial 11 billion dollar forecast seemed high but they beat it by 2.5 billion dollars.
With these type of numbers, Nvidia can throttle AMD in the supply chain to keep them out of datacenter and cripple their ability to make money. Something they will likely do since the datacenter AI market is worth keeping Intel and AMD out of.
Nvidia cost of good sold is approaching AMD's total revenue. With such crazy margins on data center and Nvidia high revenue, it gives them the ability to pay a premium on HBM and wafers, thus choking AMD out of the market. With AMD's console obligations, they don't have much freedom with their cashflow.
An outlook of 16 billion dollars is absurd considering AMD rather modest 5.7 billion dollar forecast.
Lisa Su has to really prove her worth considering her 30 million dollar salary vs Jensen 21 million dollar salary.
Very true.
A few more points to show the ocean of difference right now between Nvidia and everybody else and how they will stay ahead:
- Nvidia DataCenter revenue is 2 times higher than AMD and Intel combined !
- Nvidia total quarter revenue ($13.5B) is higher than intel total quarter revenue ($12.6B) for the first time!
- H100 and DGX are sold out until end of 2024 to the point that TSMC will make more than 1.7 million H100 in 2024!!!
- Thus in 2024, Nvidia will be the second largest TSMC customer behind Apple but far above AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom and Mediatek.
- Nvidia already booked ~80% of total worldwide CoWos packaging until end of 2024, including the third TSMC packaging factory that is opening now in Taiwan.
- Point above means that AI chip startups using HBM won't be able to deliver any significant quantity before 2025. Only Cerebras is not affected but they have other production limitations to solve before they become a real competitor.
All in one, Nvidia has secured its business with immense growth till end of 2024 at least... Then Blackwell will arrive for another cycle with billions in the bank to do whatever will be needed to dominate the market...
one graph to visualize Nvidia progression in datacenter:
JHH in God mode ⚡⚡⚡