News Nvidia 2Q23 Earnings

[Hitman928]

Don’t have much time today to go through details, but long story short, NV is absolutely crushing it.

Nvidia soars as Q2 earnings, guidance smash estimates; unveils $25B buyback

Nvidia (NVDA) shares rose in extended-hours trading on Wednesday after the semiconductor giant reported second-quarter results and guidance that topped expectations. Read for more.

seekingalpha.com

 

[Saylick]

Incredible beat. Kudos to JHH and his team for having the foresight to jump from hype cycle to hype cycle, except this time its arguably more real. We'll see if they can keep raising guidance quarter after quarter; at some point, analysts will catch on and adjust their expectations accordingly. But for now, just a massive print from Nvidia.

 

[Ajay]

Oh somebody please punch me in the face. I almost bought this at $125/sh last year . Though it was a bit undervalued (like, by $75/sh or so). Anywho, interesting graph:

 

[gdansk]

Look at the power of DLSS. +11% qoq
Radeon simply cannot compete

 

[AtenRa]

The future of Gaming GPUs are looking more and more ................. Grim
Now all three will concentrate their efforts to the Data Center leaving a small percentage to Gaming, no wonder why they increased prices in the consumer products, they simple need to suffocate the Consumer demand in order to get more wafers for the Data Center.
This will also affect future PC Games as they will not integrate new GPU technologies easily because of small Hardware Userbase.

ps. Cudos to NVIDIA for a exceptional Quarter.

 

[tajoh111]

Outrageous beat and in some ways, a crazier outlook. Nvidia's initial 11 billion dollar forecast seemed high but they beat it by 2.5 billion dollars.

With these type of numbers, Nvidia can throttle AMD in the supply chain to keep them out of datacenter and cripple their ability to make money. Something they will likely do since the datacenter AI market is worth keeping Intel and AMD out of.

Nvidia cost of good sold is approaching AMD's total revenue. With such crazy margins on data center and Nvidia high revenue, it gives them the ability to pay a premium on HBM and wafers, thus choking AMD out of the market. With AMD's console obligations, they don't have much freedom with their cashflow.

An outlook of 16 billion dollars is absurd considering AMD rather modest 5.7 billion dollar forecast.

Lisa Su has to really prove her worth considering her 30 million dollar salary vs Jensen 21 million dollar salary.

 

[xpea]

Outrageous beat and in some ways, a crazier outlook. Nvidia's initial 11 billion dollar forecast seemed high but they beat it by 2.5 billion dollars.

With these type of numbers, Nvidia can throttle AMD in the supply chain to keep them out of datacenter and cripple their ability to make money. Something they will likely do since the datacenter AI market is worth keeping Intel and AMD out of.

Nvidia cost of good sold is approaching AMD's total revenue. With such crazy margins on data center and Nvidia high revenue, it gives them the ability to pay a premium on HBM and wafers, thus choking AMD out of the market. With AMD's console obligations, they don't have much freedom with their cashflow.

An outlook of 16 billion dollars is absurd considering AMD rather modest 5.7 billion dollar forecast.

Lisa Su has to really prove her worth considering her 30 million dollar salary vs Jensen 21 million dollar salary.

Very true.
A few more points to show the ocean of difference right now between Nvidia and everybody else and how they will stay ahead:
- Nvidia DataCenter revenue is 2 times higher than AMD and Intel combined !
- Nvidia total quarter revenue ($13.5B) is higher than intel total quarter revenue ($12.6B) for the first time!
- H100 and DGX are sold out until end of 2024 to the point that TSMC will make more than 1.7 million H100 in 2024!!!
- Thus in 2024, Nvidia will be the second largest TSMC customer behind Apple but far above AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom and Mediatek.
- Nvidia already booked ~80% of total worldwide CoWos packaging until end of 2024, including the third TSMC packaging factory that is opening now in Taiwan.
- Point above means that AI chip startups using HBM won't be able to deliver any significant quantity before 2025. Only Cerebras is not affected but they have other production limitations to solve before they become a real competitor.

All in one, Nvidia has secured its business with immense growth till end of 2024 at least... Then Blackwell will arrive for another cycle with billions in the bank to do whatever will be needed to dominate the market...

one graph to visualize Nvidia progression in datacenter:




JHH in God mode ⚡⚡⚡

 

[beginner99]

The future of Gaming GPUs are looking more and more ................. Grim
Now all three will concentrate their efforts to the Data Center leaving a small percentage to Gaming, no wonder why they increased prices in the consumer products, they simple need to suffocate the Consumer demand in order to get more wafers for the Data Center.

Came to write exactly this. No chance GPU prices will go down. NV doesn't need to lower prices as they can use the wafers better for AI cards and AMD just orients themselves on whatever NV prices are to keep as high a profit as possible with a worse product.

And all blaming crypto, this is far worse than cryto ever was in terms of gobbling up supply. And it will take at least another 2 years till everyone comes back to reality about AI. That without skilled workers which you need to pay accordingly, things won't function.

 

[Heartbreaker]

And all blaming crypto, this is far worse than cryto ever was in terms of gobbling up supply.

Nope. Not even remotely close to crypto mining insanity. During crypto mining peak, you couldn't find a consumer GPU, and if you were lucky enough to find one it was at least double MSRP.

Now, consumer GPU supply is plentiful and you can buy any GPU for MSRP or less.

 

[maddie]

Came to write exactly this. No chance GPU prices will go down. NV doesn't need to lower prices as they can use the wafers better for AI cards and AMD just orients themselves on whatever NV prices are to keep as high a profit as possible with a worse product.

And all blaming crypto, this is far worse than cryto ever was in terms of gobbling up supply. And it will take at least another 2 years till everyone comes back to reality about AI. That without skilled workers which you need to pay accordingly, things won't function.

Not there yet, I think. Wafers without packaging are useless. Could this be one factor (packaging bottlenecks) why AMD decided against Navi4 multi-die?

 

[Heartbreaker]

Lisa Su has to really prove her worth considering her 30 million dollar salary vs Jensen 21 million dollar salary.

She's more than proved her worth.

Lisa Su has done an excellent job bringing AMD back from the brink of destruction, and making AMD CPUs some of the best in multiple market segments. It's really hard to fault any of her decisions.

It's just hard to compete with NVidia on GPUs as they are a MUCH tougher competitor that had a massive head start when She arrived at AMD, and NVidia never took their foot off the gas. They have always poured massive R&D into GPUs, that AMD really couldn't afford.

 

[jpiniero]

And all blaming crypto, this is far worse than cryto ever was in terms of gobbling up supply. And it will take at least another 2 years till everyone comes back to reality about AI. That without skilled workers which you need to pay accordingly, things won't function.

If you look at nVidia's cost of revenue, it didn't move much. IOW this suggests that the volume isn't increasing as much as they are just charging a stupid amount for Hopper and friends.

 

[Dribble]

Came to write exactly this. No chance GPU prices will go down. NV doesn't need to lower prices as they can use the wafers better for AI cards and AMD just orients themselves on whatever NV prices are to keep as high a profit as possible with a worse product.

And all blaming crypto, this is far worse than cryto ever was in terms of gobbling up supply. And it will take at least another 2 years till everyone comes back to reality about AI. That without skilled workers which you need to pay accordingly, things won't function.

Crypto could use gaming gpu's, AI mostly can't so it's much better then crypto as no one is going to be buying the gpu's set aside for gamers.
AI is a problem if it uses all of the wafers, so I suspect the solution will be to keep gaming on an older node and use the latest greatest node for AI only. On the plus side Nvidia can now afford to spend more on R&D and due to the big cross over between AI and gaming that will help gaming.

 

[Tuna-Fish]

Jesus Christ. Just a casual 46% net margin, no biggie. nVidia just made AMD's quarterly revenue's worth of net profit.

 

[Saylick]

Crypto could use gaming gpu's, AI mostly can't so it's much better then crypto as no one is going to be buying the gpu's set aside for gamers.
AI is a problem if it uses all of the wafers, so I suspect the solution will be to keep gaming on an older node and use the latest greatest node for AI only. On the plus side Nvidia can now afford to spend more on R&D and due to the big cross over between AI and gaming that will help gaming.

I think the higher end, high VRAM cards maybe used for AI in a pinch, but yeah for the most part the true AI parts are the ones that require advanced packaging. With that said, Nvidia are working with TSMC to ramp up the packaging volume by significant quantities next year, so if they aret bottlenecked by the packaging it may start pulling wafers away from consumer parts.

 

[Mopetar]

Nope. Not even remotely close to crypto mining insanity. During crypto mining peak, you couldn't find a consumer GPU, and if you were lucky enough to find one it was at least double MSRP.

Now, consumer GPU supply is plentiful and you can buy any GPU for MSRP or less.

Too bad the MSRP has a lot of the price inflation from the mining Boom baked into it. A $400 4060 Ti is not a good price for what you get, so MSRP is almost as useless as it was during the mining boom.

It'll be interesting to see how things continue from here on out. I think that right now we're in something of an AI boom. Eventually the hype around LLMs will die down and revenue is going to come back down to earth.

Hopefully NVidia is funding their R&D to figure out the next big thing.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Too bad the MSRP has a lot of the price inflation from the mining Boom baked into it. A $400 4060 Ti is not a good price for what you get, so MSRP is almost as useless as it was during the mining boom.

I'm guessing that's hyperbole speaking. You need another word for this, because that's NOT inflation.

A 4060 Ti is the same MSRP as the 3060 Ti, but you get more overall performance and features. How is that inflation? Let alone equating with Crypto, when 3060 Ti's, that were going for WAY over MSRP during mining days.

We are in a period of mediocre improvement of perf/$, but it's still improving. That's not inflation of pricing.

 

[fleshconsumed]

Nope. Not even remotely close to crypto mining insanity. During crypto mining peak, you couldn't find a consumer GPU, and if you were lucky enough to find one it was at least double MSRP.

Now, consumer GPU supply is plentiful and you can buy any GPU for MSRP or less.

Eh... Sure, consumer GPUs are plentiful, and you can buy them at MSRP. Except that MSRP has essentially doubled. 3080 was $700, 4080 is $1200. Yeah, it's an improvement over mining days, but it's still screwed up.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Eh... Sure, consumer GPUs are plentiful, and you can buy them at MSRP. Except that MSRP has essentially doubled. 3080 was $700, 4080 is $1200. Yeah, it's an improvement over mining days, but it's still screwed up.

4080 was a noticeable worse offering of the lineup.

4060/4060 Ti/4070/4090 had no price change or a small shift that was exceeded by performance gain.

 

[fleshconsumed]

4080 was a noticeable worse offering of the lineup.

4060/4060 Ti/4070/4090 had no price change or a small shift that was exceeded by performance gain.

Oh please, the entire lineup is horrible. 4060ti is barely faster than 3060ti and sometimes slower. 4060 has 4GB less than 3060 while having essentially same performance. Current situation for consumer graphics is a tad better than during crypto boom, but not by much.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Oh please, the entire lineup is horrible. 4060ti is barely faster than 3060ti and sometimes slower. 4060 has 4GB less than 3060 while having essentially same performance. Current situation for consumer graphics is a tad better than during crypto boom, but not by much.

You need to make up your mind what you are complaining about. You can't pretend the prices have doubled when most cards barely had a price change.

Didn't I just say the gains were mediocre, so that isn't exactly a gotcha...

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Oh somebody please punch me in the face. I almost bought this at $125/sh last year . Though it was a bit undervalued (like, by $75/sh or so). Anywho, interesting graph:

View attachment 84789

-Bro I had 100 shares of each NV and AMD back in the 360/PS3 era as young adult funsies stocks.

Was like 2-3 bucks a pop.

Sold it all when I liquidated everything to buy a house back in 2013. Granted the house doubled in value and provides a roof over my head so I can't really complain, but damn, those NV and AMD stocks didn't really contribute a huge amount to the house purchase, could a just left them there.

 

[sniffin]

Too bad the MSRP has a lot of the price inflation from the mining Boom baked into it. A $400 4060 Ti is not a good price for what you get, so MSRP is almost as useless as it was during the mining boom.

It'll be interesting to see how things continue from here on out. I think that right now we're in something of an AI boom. Eventually the hype around LLMs will die down and revenue is going to come back down to earth.

Hopefully NVidia is funding their R&D to figure out the next big thing.

This isn't the same thing as the mining boom. The University I'm affiliated with is buying DL hardware now. The state government here has written AI utilization into their 10-year plan. I'm now involved in 3 healthcare-related AI projects that were funded because private and state funders of research want to know what's possible. All this in my small corner of the world.

If your only exposure to AI is ChatGPT and YouTube videos, then I get thinking it's just a boom/bust type deal. But the reality is the opposite.

 

[Mopetar]

This isn't the same thing as the mining boom. The University I'm affiliated with is buying DL hardware now. The state government here has written AI utilization into their 10-year plan. I'm now involved in 3 healthcare-related AI projects that were funded because private and state funders of research want to know what's possible. All this in my small corner of the world.

If your only exposure to AI is ChatGPT and YouTube videos, then I get thinking it's just a boom/bust type deal. But the reality is the opposite.

It's not that much different than the dotcom boom where everyone had to have a website even if they didn't know why or what they were going to use it for. Companies were heavily recruiting and enrollment in MIS and CS programs was starting to look exponential.

Eventually reality kicked in and companies realized that there wasn't as much there as they originally thought. Of course no one wanted to get left behind and since everyone was doing it, no one really came away with egg on their face.

I don't even think ChatGPT is useless. I can think of half a dozen different ways it could have a pretty profound impact on humanity, but it's not a silver bullet. Other companies will in time realize that what they envisioned is more expensive and difficult to achieve than anticipated and then just like that the ball will be over.

 

[Saylick]

It's not that much different than the dotcom boom where everyone had to have a website even if they didn't know why or what they were going to use it for. Companies were heavily recruiting and enrollment in MIS and CS programs was starting to look exponential.

Eventually reality kicked in and companies realized that there wasn't as much there as they originally thought. Of course no one wanted to get left behind and since everyone was doing it, no one really came away with egg on their face.

I don't even think ChatGPT is useless. I can think of half a dozen different ways it could have a pretty profound impact on humanity, but it's not a silver bullet. Other companies will in time realize that what they envisioned is more expensive and difficult to achieve than anticipated and then just like that the ball will be over.

FOMO is a hellova drug.

Hyperscalers are buying Nvidia AI chips due to FOMO, and investors are piling onto Nvidia stock due to FOMO.