Discussion Speculation: Zen 4 (EPYC 4 "Genoa", Ryzen 7000, etc.)

[Vattila]

Except for the details about the improvements in the microarchitecture, we now know pretty well what to expect with Zen 3.

The leaked presentation by AMD Senior Manager Martin Hilgeman shows that EPYC 3 "Milan" will, as promised and expected, reuse the current platform (SP3), and the system architecture and packaging looks to be the same, with the same 9-die chiplet design and the same maximum core and thread-count (no SMT-4, contrary to rumour). The biggest change revealed so far is the enlargement of the compute complex from 4 cores to 8 cores, all sharing a larger L3 cache ("32+ MB", likely to double to 64 MB, I think).

Hilgeman's slides did also show that EPYC 4 "Genoa" is in the definition phase (or was at the time of the presentation in September, at least), and will come with a new platform (SP5), with new memory support (likely DDR5).

What else do you think we will see with Zen 4? PCI-Express 5 support? Increased core-count? 4-way SMT? New packaging (interposer, 2.5D, 3D)? Integrated memory on package (HBM)?

Vote in the poll and share your thoughts!

 

[Rigg]

The 13600K is as far as MT and ST goes a 12700K, the 5800X was very competitive with that CPU both in gaming and application performance.
The 7700X will be a tier higher than the 13600K

By your logic the 12600k is also very competitive with the 5800x in both gaming and application performance. I'm not sure how you can say the 7700x will be a tier higher than the 13600k in performance with such confidence based on those charts.

*Edit Full TPU Charts with 12900k, 5900x, and 5950x included for context

 

[Hans Gruber]

Here is my prediction. We can come back to this posts at the end of the year. I think the Raptor Lake CPU wins over Zen 4 in performance by a decent margin in most categories except for power consumption. I think this is the reason why AMD will be speeding of the release of the 3D cache chips that will put AMD over the top in gaming by a good margin.

Gaming performance is really the most important category for DIY computer builders.

I am not just making stuff up. I have scoured the internet taking pieces of information to come up with my conclusion. The other interesting part with Zen 4. It seems that memory manufacturers are bumping up memory speeds for DDR5 much faster than with DDR3 and DDR4 in the past. This will reduce the margin of victory for Intel because I think ZEN4 will scale better with faster memory speeds and lower timings.

The 7700x3D will be my next CPU for my next build in 2023.

 

[Joe NYC]

The 7700x3D will be my next CPU for my next build in 2023.

I am pretty sure it will be called 7800 (maybe 7800x3d) rather than 7700.

Hopefully, supply will not be an issue, since AMD is ramping up the production on TSMC N5 at rapid pace. Going from zero to #2 customer of N5 node (behind Apple) even before the first product is officially announced.

Also, there were rumors that AMD pre-booked all of TSMC hybrid bond capacity for a couple of years, and hopefully, there will be sufficient capacity on this end to meet the demand.

It seems that every gamer is already starting to salivate for this CPU...

 

[Kaluan]

The only pricing rumors I've read thus far are Intel RPL is +20% ADL MSRP, and AMD Raphael is the same MSRP as Vermeer. If i5 beats or even closely competes with R7 that's bad for AMD's mind share.

???
There's like 2 supposed leaks already about Ryzen 7000 pricing. Both have one thing in common at least, 7700X is $299.

The "+20%" is actually "up to 20% hike", which could mean anything. Suffice to say, 13600K will be north of the $320 quasi-MSRP 12600K currently sits at.

About the second part, IDK what to tell you, you're kinda the only one here who obsesses over naming schemes being the bane of AMD. Bad naming schemes don't cause loss of mindshare, bad products do. And I'm pretty sure Ryzen 7000 is not one. IMHO, pricing is the only aspect of it where AMD has the possibility of derping with.


Random tidbit, anyone else remember the pre-launch ADL hype? 30K+ in R23 and all that? Something tells me there's a lot of misleading data floating around once again.

 

[Carfax83]

Here is my prediction. We can come back to this posts at the end of the year. I think the Raptor Lake CPU wins over Zen 4 in performance by a decent margin in most categories except for power consumption.

I agree as well. I think a lot of people in this thread are seriously underestimating Raptor Lake and haven't been keeping up with the leaks. It appears as though Raptor Lake will address all the weaknesses that Alder Lake had and then some

This will reduce the margin of victory for Intel because I think ZEN4 will scale better with faster memory speeds and lower timings.

I'm curious as to why you'd think Zen 4 would scale better with higher memory speeds and tighter timings than Raptor Lake.

I would think a memory controller embedded in a monolithic design would naturally have lower latency and higher throughput than on a chiplet design.

Especially since Intel was rumored to improve the IMC and L3 in Raptor Lake.. According to Raichu, the L3 cache read bandwidth has increased by 100% or so

 

[jpiniero]

There's like 2 supposed leaks already about Ryzen 7000 pricing. Both have one thing in common at least, 7700X is $299.

Wasn't the "source" of that MLID? I'd expect it to be closer to $500.

 

[Joe NYC]

???
There's like 2 supposed leaks already about Ryzen 7000 pricing. Both have one thing in common at least, 7700X is $299.

The "+20%" is actually "up to 20% hike", which could mean anything. Suffice to say, 13600K will be north of the $320 quasi-MSRP 12600K currently sits at.

About the second part, IDK what to tell you, you're kinda the only one here who obsesses over naming schemes being the bane of AMD. Bad naming schemes don't cause loss of mindshare, bad products do. And I'm pretty sure Ryzen 7000 is not one. IMHO, pricing is the only aspect of it where AMD has the possibility of derping with.


Random tidbit, anyone else remember the pre-launch ADL hype? 30K+ in R23 and all that? Something tells me there's a lot of misleading data floating around once again.

From what I have seen, AMD pricing seems fine, especially on 7600x to 7800x3d range.

In retrospect, it seems that Intel was quite aggressive in pricing ADL, but at that time, Intel was desperate to get a win, any win, at almost any price.

One year later, Intel's financial situation has deteriorated rapidly. Intel can't leave even a dollar on the table, is going to try to squeeze maximum revenue out of every segment.

Intel is also winking to AMD: "Let's raise prices"

So, IMO, the crazy deals on Intel CPUs will dry up with Raptor Lake generation.

 

[jpiniero]

In retrospect, it seems that Intel was quite aggressive in pricing ADL, but at that time, Intel was desperate to get a win, any win, at almost any price.

That's not true either. Compared to Rocket Lake, the i7 was only a $10 increase but the i5 and i9 K were 10% higher.

 

[Joe NYC]

That's not true either. Compared to Rocket Lake, the i7 was only a $10 increase but the i5 and i9 K were 10% higher.

I think a better comparison is its direct competition, AMD Zen 3.

Alder Lake is very competitive with Zen 3, and a lot of gamers found great bargains in low to mid-range SKUs (vs. Zen 3)

 

[Saylick]

Tom from Moore's Law is Dead reiterating Zen 4 V-cache is going to launch in Q1 2023.

 

[coercitiv]

Wasn't the "source" of that MLID? I'd expect it to be closer to $500.

You expect the 7700x to be close to $500?

 

[Saylick]

I have to imagine the 7700X is $299, 7800X is $349, 7800X3D is $449. All 8 cores.

 

[desrever]

if 7800X3D is 20% faster in gaming, they might be able to sell it for more than the 5800X3D launch price cause there would literally be no competition.

 

[Joe NYC]

I have to imagine the 7700X is $299, 7800X is $349, 7800X3D is $449. All 8 cores.

Except, there is no point of 7800x with 8 cores without 3D cache, if 7700x already has 8 cores.

 

[bakyt115]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1562992880989265920

cpu-z ST score is around 750~780

 

[Joe NYC]

if 7800X3D is 20% faster in gaming, they might be able to sell it for more than the 5800X3D launch price cause there would literally be no competition.

It should already be very profitable at $449.

I think the idea is going to be to sell more of them.

 

[Saylick]

Except, there is no point of 7800x with 8 cores without 3D cache, if 7700x already has 8 cores.

It's only there as a better binned 7700X, like 200-300 MHz better clocks for $50 more.

 

[desrever]

It should already be very profitable at $449.

I think the idea is going to be to sell more of them.

AMD doesn't need to sell more of them since they can all get sold as EPYCs at higher margin anyways.

 

[Rigg]

???
There's like 2 supposed leaks already about Ryzen 7000 pricing. Both have one thing in common at least, 7700X is $299.

The 5700x has an MSRP of $299. Although to be fair my memory was off a bit. The rumor has the 7600x $70 less than 5600x ($20 more than 5600) and the 7900x $50 more than the 5900x. The other Canadian retailer leak had Raphael slightly above the Vermeer MSRP's across the board when converted to USD.

The "+20%" is actually "up to 20% hike", which could mean anything. Suffice to say, 13600K will be north of the $320 quasi-MSRP 12600K currently sits at.

Yeah this was already pointed out to me. My bad. There is no way in hell Intel will price the 13600k above the 7700x unless its clearly destroying it. All bets are off if that happens.

About the second part, IDK what to tell you, you're kinda the only one here who obsesses over naming schemes being the bane of AMD. Bad naming schemes don't cause loss of mindshare, bad products do. And I'm pretty sure Ryzen 7000 is not one. IMHO, pricing is the only aspect of it where AMD has the possibility of derping with.

Getting beat by a lower tier SKU is a bad sales and marketing strategy no matter how you slice it. Especially if said lower tier SKU is significantly cheaper. Bad naming schemes are almost inevitably tied to bad pricing schemes. That will cause a loss of mind share.

With AMD being first to market the potential is there for Intel to make AMD look bad by aggressively pricing the 13600k. All I'm saying is that this is a plausible scenario. It doesn't mean I'm betting on it or cheering for it. While I strive to be objective I tend to have a preference for AMD. There is no agenda here. It's kind of hard to deny that the 13600k looks pretty damn good next to the 7600x and 7700x on paper right about now.

I don't know, I'm probably over thinking it.

 

[biostud]

It's only there as a better binned 7700X, like 200-300 MHz better clocks for $50 more.

I don't think AMD want to clutter their product stack like Intel, at least not until a refresh after a year.

 

[maddie]

AMD doesn't need to sell more of them since they can all get sold as EPYCs at higher margin anyways.

I always read this claim. As someone who owned & ran a B<>B production business, be very wary of anyone who says I'll buy all you can produce.

Does anyone know the approximate size of the server market in say, cores/yr, NOT revenue?

 

[jpiniero]

You expect the 7700x to be close to $500?

5800X's original MSRP was $449. So yeah. $299 would be an admission that Intel's E Core Spam strategy works. As others mention there is no reason to have another 8 core without vcache.

 

[tamz_msc]

Right. In Cinebench. Same goes already for 5800X vs. 12600K (the latter is like 10% ahead) but overall the 5800X is slightly faster in MT apps. Cinebench is probably the worst case for AMD.

Wrong. Except for 7-zip where AMD always had an advantage, the 12600K matches or beats the 5800X in most other multi-threaded apps.

Intel Core i5-12600K Review: 5600X Defeated

The Core i5-12600K is Intel's latest mainstream CPU and a direct competitor to AMD's popular Ryzen 5 5600X. The Alder Lake chip packs 6 P-cores and 4...

www.techspot.com

It might be the same with 13600K and 7700X.

 

[Timmah!]

Ha! Who know I would one day be able to put to use my (weak) knowledge of Czech language, to watch computer hardware review video.

when and where did you pick-up such a noble skill?

 

[inf64]

5800X's original MSRP was $449. So yeah. $299 would be an admission that Intel's E Core Spam strategy works. As others mention there is no reason to have another 8 core without vcache.

If AMD prices 16T 7700X at 500USD as you predict, then they are out of their mind. I don't see how this is possible even when you consider Alder Lake parts, let alone Raptor Lake with E core spam.