Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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PJVol

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AMD managed to keep roughly the same clocks at the same voltage while delivering a ~20% IPC uplift (on the same node), which was pretty impressive, with zen 3 vs zen 2.
They used different tech processes with different IPs, as for PPA N7+ has +10% speed and x1.2 density.
Besides, all this has little to do with IPC / Cac ratio.
 
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PJVol

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Geddagod

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It's not IPC/Cac ratio, but the ΔIPC/ΔCac ratio. Isn't it a bit different thing?
Isn't that we were talking about in reference to Zen 3 vs Zen 2 in context? Someone brought up that Zen 5 is likely to have lower 'architectural efficiency iso frequency, someone else mentions that AMD tends to deliver 1:1 IPC/Cdyn, which makes it sound like for every new 1% increase in IPC is met by a 1% increase in Cdyn, which based on AMD's Zen 3 slides, appear to be true. It's possible Zen 5 would follow that path and do the same thing.
 

Abwx

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Isn't that we were talking about in reference to Zen 3 vs Zen 2 in context? Someone brought up that Zen 5 is likely to have lower 'architectural efficiency iso frequency, someone else mentions that AMD tends to deliver 1:1 IPC/Cdyn, which makes it sound like for every new 1% increase in IPC is met by a 1% increase in Cdyn, which based on AMD's Zen 3 slides, appear to be true. It's possible Zen 5 would follow that path and do the same thing.

That s not exactly true, increasing core size, and hence Cdyn, by 1% wont bring 1% better IPC, such a linear scaling is too good to be true.

Actually if we remove games from the 19% IPC estimation and keep only a set of significant apps then Cdyn, i.e core size, increase by 1.36%/1% IPC, that s still a remarkable achievement since the scaling is more generaly a root square function, that is 2% bigger size for each 1% better IPC.

That being said it should be taken account of the huge evolution from Zen to Zen 2 since the sames apps see a 21% IPC improvement, to wich it should be added that Zen + added 5% IPC over Zen, this say that there was a considerable improvement margin at the start and that most low hanging fruits were harvested with Zen 2.
 
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exquisitechar

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Apr 18, 2017
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Actually if we remove games from the 19% IPC estimation and keep only a set of significant apps then Cdyn, i.e core size, increase by 1.36%/1% IPC, that s still a remarkable achievement since the scaling is more generaly a root square function, that is 2% bigger size for each 1% better IPC.
True, although Anandtech got a 19% improvement in SPEC in their Zen 3 review, didn’t they?

One thing to keep in mind about Zen 3 is that the TAGE branch predictor from Zen 2 was originally planned to appear in Zen 3. So, according to the original plan, the IPC increase from Zen 2 to Zen 3 was supposed to be over 19%, but ended up being smaller because of that. I expect to see an official figure of at least 20% when AMD unveils Zen 5.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
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True, although Anandtech got a 19% improvement in SPEC in their Zen 3 review, didn’t they?

You re right on this point, i used Computerbase numbers wich are heavily geared toward FP since 6 out of their 9 tests are FP and use a skewed version of PovRay.

One thing to keep in mind about Zen 3 is that the TAGE branch predictor from Zen 2 was originally planned to appear in Zen 3. So, according to the original plan, the IPC increase from Zen 2 to Zen 3 was supposed to be over 19%, but ended up being smaller because of that. I expect to see an official figure of at least 20% when AMD unveils Zen 5.

Neverless that was good progress and way enough since Zen 2 already definitly surpassed Intel s SKL, also Zen 4 brought a comparable improvement than Zen 3, wich is quite good since one had to wonder what could be still improved after the previous iterations.

In Computerbase tests Zen 4 has 2% better IPC than ADL s P core, and it s actually 3% since its PovRay score is underestimated by 18%, wich is a lot for an average comprising 9 tests.

As for Zen 5 it s highly probable that the figure will be significantly better than Zen3/4 improvements given that those latter share the same ALU count and pipeline, if ALU count increase by 1 unity that s already a theorical 25% better IPC if it was to be fully utilised, wich of course is impossible, so that could be 2 more ALUs wich would then easily yield said 20% improvement if things are done half right.
 

A///

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Feb 24, 2017
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Agree but let's focus on what's even more important. it really matters when amd can get this processor series out and the pricing matter. zen 4 was good but so was raptor firey megawatt lake. if amd is smart and has sensible pricing for zen 5 taking into account the dire economic situation in their most impactful markets, and can get their product out at least a quarter before intel, reduce pricing on zen 4 and tank the am4 prices as they're set to wind down they could have a burgeoning pearl in their midst.

i see arrow lake being good but arrow lake was planned out on the consensus that amd was in their comfort stage. that's how i pretend it'll be because it's easier.

if amd can launch zen 5 at current zen 4 prices and close the gap of the reg vs x3d down from $100 to $70-80 I think they'll have a wnner on their hands. they won't get that initial big wow in revenue but not like that worked out for them with zen 4, but they'll make it up in volume. at those prices they'll be flying off the shelves. by next year ddr5 will be cheaper than it is now. and it's cheap now.

all aboard the hype train!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

Ajay

Lifer
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if amd can launch zen 5 at current zen 4 prices and close the gap of the reg vs x3d down from $100 to $70-80 I think they'll have a wnner on their hands. they won't get that initial big wow in revenue but not like that worked out for them with zen 4, but they'll make it up in volume. at those prices they'll be flying off the shelves. by next year ddr5 will be cheaper than it is now. and it's cheap now.
Price of the CPU is the least problem for Zen5 DIY CPUs, IMHO. AMD will pick a price that delivers good margins and go from there. If the market is still weak, prices will go down, if not, they will stay up for a while. People always go on about price. Clearly, in the current market, and with the complexity of leading edge semiconductor design/manufacture these days, initial prices will keep going up for the top chips.
 

A///

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Price of the CPU is the least problem for Zen5 DIY CPUs, IMHO. AMD will pick a price that delivers good margins and go from there. If the market is still weak, prices will go down, if not, they will stay up for a while. People always go on about price. Clearly, in the current market, and with the complexity of leading edge semiconductor design/manufacture these days, initial prices will keep going up for the top chips.
That's what amd tried to accomplish this last fall but sales were stagnant. Am4 still delivered phenomenal performance for the price. ddr5 was expensive. for many it is still expensive today even if you can get a decent 32gb kit for under $120. am4 is still very good. For many there is no reason to upgrade to zen 4, probably won't be for zen 5. for amd the optics of launching as you say and then reducing prices because units aren't moving isn't going to be a good look.

Amazon's best sellers for the top 50 processors has a scant showing of zen 4, mostly zen 3 and more Intel than Zen 5.

5600x and 5800x make up 1st and 2nd, 3rd and 4th are the 13900k and 13700k respectively.

Even if zen 5 brings 20% ipc over zen 4 it's still going to be a hard sell if amd charges $800 again for their 16 core, again.

if for some magical reason intel can compete on performance and thermals and cost less, they'll take the crown. it's hardly like newegg's top sellers page is zen 4, there's only 3 zen 4 processors, the rest is am4s zen 3 and intel 12th and 13th gen.
 
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exquisitechar

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I wouldn’t expect very attractive prices from Granite Ridge, initially. It should only be competing with Raptor Lake refresh at first, and even Arrow Lake, which should launch quite a bit later, seems to be somewhat underwhelming according to Intel’s own leaked projections. So we’ll probably have to pay up for premium performance. No dense cores to pad the MT performance like Strix Point in laptops, either. Betting there will be outrage about the launch pricing of the 6 core model.
 

A///

Diamond Member
Feb 24, 2017
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I wouldn’t expect very attractive prices from Granite Ridge, initially. It should only be competing with Raptor Lake refresh at first, and even Arrow Lake, which should launch quite a bit later, seems to be somewhat underwhelming according to Intel’s own leaked projections. So we’ll probably have to pay up for premium performance. No dense cores to pad the MT performance like Strix Point in laptops, either. Betting there will be outrage about the launch pricing of the 6 core model.
I believe Granite Ridge is destined to come out in q4 of 2024 not q2 like old leaks suggested. It did seem very likely it would be q2. I'm not too concerned about projection based on preliminary data more than a year out. in either case the july leaks suggest a 6-21% average gain over the 13900k. Zen 5 is allegedly around that same figure over zen 4. It'll come down to what performs better in edge cases and power usage. That figure range is worst to best based on current sampled data the leak is from. I'm not at all concerned about hardware that's a rough sample that boots.

There is so much bs airing around arrow lake intel/tsmc and amd's zen 5 that most of these discussions on performance based on "leaks" is like measuring individual ants you smushed off the ground.
 
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Ajay

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That's what amd tried to accomplish this last fall but sales were stagnant. Am4 still delivered phenomenal performance for the price. ddr5 was expensive. for many it is still expensive today even if you can get a decent 32gb kit for under $120. am4 is still very good. For many there is no reason to upgrade to zen 4, probably won't be for zen 5. for amd the optics of launching as you say and then reducing prices because units aren't moving isn't going to be a good look.

Amazon's best sellers for the top 50 processors has a scant showing of zen 4, mostly zen 3 and more Intel than Zen 5.

5600x and 5800x make up 1st and 2nd, 3rd and 4th are the 13900k and 13700k respectively.

Even if zen 5 brings 20% ipc over zen 4 it's still going to be a hard sell if amd charges $800 again for their 16 core, again.

if for some magical reason intel can compete on performance and thermals and cost less, they'll take the crown. it's hardly like newegg's top sellers page is zen 4, there's only 3 zen 4 processors, the rest is am4s zen 3 and intel 12th and 13th gen.
I guess we'll see. I'd imagine that AMD is making sure Zen3 will be largely out of the market in time for Zen5. They left the option open given that they knew platform prices for Zen4 were a bit insane at release. If I stayed on Zen2, Zen5 would likely have looked very good - but Zen3 is good enough for me and probably will be for several years to come. If someone has a 5800X3D - they are probably better off saving for a better video card if they are gamers. Guess that's a problem for AMD. Why put more money into your CPU (which requires a platform upgrade), when video card prices are stratospheric (and will be staying that way)? Too bad RDNA3 didn't pan out better, they could be pulling in better revenues from graphics cards (although the whole PC market is in a slump right now).
 
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soresu

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I believe Granite Ridge is destined to come out in q4 of 2024 not q2 like old leaks suggested. It did seem very likely it would be q2. I'm not too concerned about projection based on preliminary data more than a year out
I wouldn't trust estimates of dates any more than I would rumors of performance at this point.

Either way I would expect Strix to be announced no later than Q2, and it would be excessively weird for Strix to be announced before Granite Ridge - perhaps the first time an APU preceded the DT CPU of the same core µArch since Trinity and Vishera in 2012.
 

Abwx

Lifer
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Too bad RDNA3 didn't pan out better, they could be pulling in better revenues from graphics cards (although the whole PC market is in a slump right now).

RDNA3 perform well in tests but badly according to the usual urban legends rehashed ad nauseam, what they lack is cards that cover the mid range segments, at this point they only have the 7900XT/XTX at the upper range and the 7600 at the bottom, money is made between thoses two segment for a big part.


So what did badly panout according to these numbers..?
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
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RDNA3 perform well in tests but badly according to the usual urban legends rehashed ad nauseam, what they lack is cards that cover the mid range segments, at this point they only have the 7900XT/XTX at the upper range and the 7600 at the bottom, money is made between thoses two segment for a big part.


So what did badly panout according to these numbers..?

AMD clearly missed their performance expectations. And it's also quite obvious that they delayed N32 until RDNA2's supply runs low because N32 is only about the same performance as a deep cut N21 (6800 XT) and only mildly cheaper. It's taken AMD and the AIBs ages to draw down the supply.

Edit: Will say that I am wondering how much interest from OEMs AMD expects from Strix Halo.
 

soresu

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bit like telling a prego woman when she's due.
That at least has a hard estimate based on embryo size and established growth rate with health of mother or foetus being the main factor in the estimate being off.

Semiconductor product annoncements are much more nebulous with so many dependencies involved including previous gen channel stock, market conditions, current company finances and who knows what else before you even consider the hardware and software readiness problem.
 
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A///

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That at least has a hard estimate based on embryo size and established growth rate with health of mother or foetus being the main factor in the estimate being off.

Semiconductor product annoncements are much more nebulous with so many dependencies involved including previous gen channel stock, market conditions, current company finances and who knows what else before you even consider the hardware and software readiness problem.
something was hard 9 months prior yes.

mhmm like the lukewarm news a few weeks ago of the us govvy having a contract for 18a over @ intel. nothing confirmed, nothing set in stone, but people go mental about it.
 
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TESKATLIPOKA

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Edit: Will say that I am wondering how much interest from OEMs AMD expects from Strix Halo.
It will depend on supply.
If AMD can't make enough of them, then you can forget about wide adoption, only a few models.
Look at how many Zen4 models are available, don't think It will be any different with Zen5.
 
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