News AMD 4Q23 Earnings

Hitman928 · Jan 30, 2024

Quick hitter:

Advanced Micro Devices press release (NASDAQ:AMD): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.77 in-line.
Revenue of $6.2B (+10.7% Y/Y) beats by $60M.
Data Center segment revenue in the quarter was $2.3 billion, up 38% year-over-year and 43% sequentially driven by strong growth in AMD Instinct™ GPUs and 4th Gen AMD EPYC™ CPUs.
Client segment revenue was $1.5 billion, up 62% year-over-year driven primarily by an increase in AMD Ryzen™ 7000 Series CPU sales.
Gaming segment revenue was $1.4 billion, down 17% year-over-year and 9% sequentially, due to a decrease in semi-custom revenue, partially offset by an increase in AMD Radeon™ GPU sales.
Embedded segment revenue was $1.1 billion, down 24% year-over-year and 15% sequentially primarily due to customers reducing their inventory levels.
For the first quarter of 2024, AMD expects revenue to be approximately $5.4 billion ($5.57B consensus), plus or minus $300 million. Sequentially, AMD expects Data Center segment revenue to be flat, with a seasonal decline in server sales offset by a strong Data Center GPU ramp. Client, Embedded and Gaming segment sales are expected to decline sequentially, with semi-custom revenue expected to decline by a significant double-digit percentage. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 52%.

Advanced Micro Devices Non-GAAP EPS of $0.77 in-line, revenue of $6.2B beats by $60M (NASDAQ:AMD)

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reports Q4 earnings: Non-GAAP EPS in line with expectations, revenue beats estimates by $60M.

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Financial Information

View AMD’s financial information including latest financial results.

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Hitman928 · Jan 30, 2024

Segment breakdown:

Data Center segment revenue in the quarter was $2.3 billion, up 38% year-over-year and 43% sequentially driven by strong growth in AMD Instinct™ GPUs and 4th Gen AMD EPYC™ CPUs.
- For 2023, Data Center segment revenue was $6.5 billion, an increase of 7% compared to the prior year, driven by strong growth in AMD Instinct GPUs and 4th Gen AMD EPYC CPUs.
Client segment revenue was $1.5 billion, up 62% year-over-year driven primarily by an increase in AMD Ryzen™ 7000 Series CPU sales.
- For 2023, Client segment revenue was $4.7 billion, down 25% compared to the prior year, due to a decline in the PC market.
Gaming segment revenue was $1.4 billion, down 17% year-over-year and 9% sequentially, due to a decrease in semi-custom revenue, partially offset by an increase in AMD Radeon™ GPU sales.
- For 2023, Gaming segment revenue was $6.2 billion, down 9% compared to the prior year primarily due to lower semi-custom sales.
Embedded segment revenue was $1.1 billion, down 24% year-over-year and 15% sequentially primarily due to customers reducing their inventory levels.
- For 2023, Embedded segment revenue was $5.3 billion, up 17% compared to the prior year, primarily due to the inclusion of a full year of revenue related to the acquisition of Xilinx completed in February 2022.

Overall, AMD's "core" areas (consumer and data center CPU, consumer and data center GPU) are doing well. FPGAs and semi-custom weakness is restricting growth. Data center sales seem to be good but no indication of a true explosion of sales yet due to AI as some are expecting. We'll see in the earnings call if AMD gives any additional guidance for data center GPU beyond Q1.

cebri1 · Jan 30, 2024

adroc_thurston · Jan 30, 2024

Horribly weak guide too, especially given the product mix.

trivik12 · Jan 30, 2024

Horrible guide for sure. They are not expecting MI300x selling that much in Q1. Its definitely not a Nvidia competitor for now. Looking at Q1 guide, they are expecting similar drop like Intel. Yuck.

Hitman928 · Jan 30, 2024

trivik12 said:
Horrible guide for sure. They are not expecting MI300x selling that much in Q1. Its definitely not a Nvidia competitor for now. Looking at Q1 guide, they are expecting similar drop like Intel. Yuck.

MI300x ramps in Q1 and replaces MI300a (El Capitan) orders from the past quarter. MI300x will continue to ramp from there and the majority of sales will occur in the second half of 24. How much AMD can ramp MI300x through the year and how much demand is there for it is the big question mark.

Edit: I think some people were getting a little too hyped up on AI for AMD. AMD is at about a $400M quarterly run rate for MI300 sales. Even if they can increase that by 40% each quarter (decently aggressive ramp) for the rest of the year, they'll still "only" have about $3B in MI300 sales for 2024. Some people were expecting them to more than double their MI300 sales every quarter with some of the predictions I saw being tossed around. I mean, maybe they can get there but I think that's a bit too much to ask unless AMD gives some kind of indication that this is where they are headed for the year.

itsmydamnation · Jan 30, 2024

There has been lots of tech layoffs over the last few months , I'm guessing they expect that to flow into hardware.

adroc_thurston · Jan 30, 2024

trivik12 said:
They are not expecting MI300x selling that much in Q1

Oh they are.
It's everything else that's down.

Hitman928 said:
they'll still "only" have about $3B in MI300 sales for 2024

Lisa just said $3.5B and that's like really-really lowballing.

trivik12 · Jan 30, 2024

adroc_thurston said:
Lisa just said $3.5B and that's like really-really lowballing.

If she is knowingly doing that that is not good. its ok to be conservative but now low ball big time.

adroc_thurston · Jan 30, 2024

trivik12 said:
If she is knowingly doing that that is not good.

They gotta play safe assuming NV retaliates heavily in cloud by chopping prices off H100/H200 to regain cloud share.

Hitman928 · Jan 30, 2024

adroc_thurston said:
Oh they are.
It's everything else that's down.

Lisa just said $3.5B and that's like really-really lowballing.

I was expecting around $4B, so with a bit of conservatism mixed in with her projection, seems like they might just hit that. If she is being ultra conservative with that number, then bully for AMD but usually Lisa Su isn't that conservative. For me, the far more interesting question is if they can roll the MI300 success into the next gen to keep the train going. An up and down performance on the DC side like they have on the consumer side would be very frustrating.

adroc_thurston · Jan 30, 2024

Hitman928 said:
I was expecting around $4B, so with a bit of conservatism mixed in with her projection, seems like they might just hit that.

They're gonna smash that.

Hitman928 said:
but usually Lisa Su isn't that conservative

She has to be, it's a new market and NV still has levers to pull.

Hitman928 said:
For me, the far more interesting question is if they can roll the MI300 success into the next gen to keep the train going.

yea, that's why MI300 is eating GPGPU share to begin with.
AMD has a roadmap, no one else but NV does.

Hitman928 · Jan 30, 2024

adroc_thurston said:
They're gonna smash that.

She has to be, it's a new market and NV still has levers to pull.

First you say they are going to smash Lisa's projections but then you say her projections have to be conservative because NV could adjust (presumably to prevent AMD from beating said projections). So is AMD going to smash their projection or not? Or is it dependent on Nvidia's moves and therefore it's uncertain if they can increase sales more than they've projected which means we stick with roughly the guidance given?

yea, that's why MI300 is eating GPGPU share to begin with.
AMD has a roadmap, no one else but NV does.

I agree, from what I've seen, it's pretty much a two horse race for at least the next couple of years with Nvidia clearly leading the way. The question is how much AMD can catch up and how quickly.

adroc_thurston · Jan 30, 2024

Hitman928 said:
So is AMD going to smash their projection or not?

No one knows, but chances are high.

Hitman928 said:
Or is it dependent on Nvidia's moves and therefore it's uncertain if they can increase sales more than they've projected which means we stick with roughly the guidance given?

The street estimates like $6B of MI300 sales on average so let's leave it at that.

Hitman928 said:
The question is how much AMD can catch up and how quickly.

Oh they're not catching up, no. That's kinda done already.
The next cycle is whoever designs fancier solution wrt to GPGPU socket self, intra- and inter-node scaling.

Hitman928 · Jan 30, 2024

adroc_thurston said:
No one knows, but chances are high.

The street estimates like $6B of MI300 sales on average so let's leave it at that.

The street estimate will most likely adjust down after today so I'm not sure that's a good barometer.

adroc_thurston said:
Oh they're not catching up, no. That's kinda done already.
The next cycle is whoever designs fancier solution wrt to GPGPU socket self, intra- and inter-node scaling.

AMD could catch up eventually but it's not going to be soon. The question is how quickly.

I think it's more complicated than that but that's certainly a huge problem right now and if one can solve it faster than the other it will be significant for them in taking/keeping market share.

adroc_thurston · Jan 30, 2024

Hitman928 said:
The street estimate will most likely adjust down after today so I'm not sure that's a good barometer.

Nah, they do channel checks independently.

Hitman928 said:
AMD could catch up eventually but it's not going to be soon.

They're not catching up.

Hitman928 said:
I think it's more complicated than that

It's not.
It's the same fundamental problem as large HPC systems which training farms really are.
Better socket-better node-better networking is the way to go.

eek2121 · Jan 30, 2024

adroc_thurston said:
Oh they are.
It's everything else that's down.

Tech workers definitely buy the most AMD stuff, and the layoffs that have been happening for the past 1.5 years or so (and not stopping) have mostly hurt tech workers. I'm not surprised. Watch the numbers from other companies. Across-the-board drops mean a recession will follow soon.

adroc_thurston · Jan 30, 2024

eek2121 said:
Tech workers definitely buy the most AMD stuff, and the layoffs that have been happening for the past 1.5 years or so (and not stopping) have mostly hurt tech workers.

Completely unrelated.
Stuff like gaming being >30% down sequentially is the culprit.

eek2121 · Jan 30, 2024

adroc_thurston said:
Completely unrelated.
Stuff like gaming being >30% down sequentially is the culprit.

What do you think my hobby is? Guess who is one of those laid off (and actually taking time about going back to work since I have my own thing going) this guy

adroc_thurston · Jan 30, 2024

eek2121 said:
What do you think my hobby is? Guess who is one of those laid off (and actually taking time about going back to work since I have my own thing going) this guy

You're not the market.
Consoles are pleb stuff, they're $399 boxes after all.

Hitman928 · Jan 30, 2024

adroc_thurston said:
Nah, they do channel checks independently.

We'll see.

adroc_thurston said:
They're not catching up.

I've heard/read many predictions like this through the years. I don't think a single one has ever turned out to be true.

adroc_thurston said:
It's not.
It's the same fundamental problem as large HPC systems which training farms really are.
Better socket-better node-better networking is the way to go.

AI long term is a much more complex market.

adroc_thurston · Jan 30, 2024

Hitman928 said:
We'll see.

Not much to see here.

Hitman928 said:
I don't think a single one has ever turned out to be true.

? They kinda rolled over Intel in server by designing a better SoC.

Hitman928 said:
AI long term is a much more complex market.

No?
No.
It's HPC but low precision math.

Glo. · Jan 30, 2024

Hitman928 said:
I've heard/read many predictions like this through the years. I don't think a single one has ever turned out to be true.

What Adroc is saying is that AMD already ha caught up with Nvidia, and that they do not need to catch them.

From technology point of view - he might be correct.

Hitman928 · Jan 30, 2024

adroc_thurston said:
Not much to see here.

You don't expect any street revisions on AMD DC GPU estimates after today. I do. We'll see.

adroc_thurston said:
? They kinda rolled over Intel in server by designing a better SoC.

Ok. So you're saying that no one can design a better AI chip/module/system than NV from now until the end of humanity?

adroc_thurston said:
No?
No.
It's HPC but low precision math.

The entirety of the CPU market also used to be only big iron type systems as well. Things can change with time.

adroc_thurston · Jan 30, 2024

Glo. said:
Technologically speaking - he might be correct.

If Meta slobbers it in 10's of k of units then it's good.

Hitman928 said:
You don't expect any street revisions on AMD DC GPU estimates after today. I do. We'll see.

Yea.

Hitman928 said:
So you're saying that no one can design a better AI chip/module/system than NV from now until the end of humanity?

?

Hitman928 said:
The entirety of the CPU market also used to be only big iron type systems as well. Things can change with time.

That was an adoption of different workloads.
ML is a single one, you run chunggus model on a large matrix math farm.
Throw compute and membw at the problem is the core precept of anything and everything ML.

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