Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel)

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DisEnchantment

Golden Member
Mar 3, 2017
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TSMC's N7 EUV is now in its second year of production and N5 is contributing to revenue for TSMC this quarter. N3 is scheduled for 2022 and I believe they have a good chance to reach that target.


N7 performance is more or less understood.


This year and next year TSMC is mainly increasing capacity to meet demands.

For Samsung the nodes are basically the same from 7LPP to 4 LPE, they just add incremental scaling boosters while the bulk of the tech is the same.

Samsung is already shipping 7LPP and will ship 6LPP in H2. Hopefully they fix any issues if at all.
They have two more intermediate nodes in between before going to 3GAE, most likely 5LPE will ship next year but for 4LPE it will probably be back to back with 3GAA since 3GAA is a parallel development with 7LPP enhancements.




Samsung's 3GAA will go for HVM in 2022 most likely, similar timeframe to TSMC's N3.
There are major differences in how the transistor will be fabricated due to the GAA but density for sure Samsung will be behind N3.
But there might be advantages for Samsung with regards to power and performance, so it may be better suited for some applications.
But for now we don't know how much of this is true and we can only rely on the marketing material.

This year there should be a lot more available wafers due to lack of demand from Smartphone vendors and increased capacity from TSMC and Samsung.
Lots of SoCs which dont need to be top end will be fabbed with N7 or 7LPP/6LPP instead of N5, so there will be lots of wafers around.

Most of the current 7nm designs are far from the advertized density from TSMC and Samsung. There is still potential for density increase compared to currently shipping products.
N5 is going to be the leading foundry node for the next couple of years.

For a lot of fabless companies out there, the processes and capacity available are quite good.
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,210
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Wtf was Intel smoking to come up with those node names...
Intel 3 --> 3-T --> 3-E --> 3-PT
Intel 18A --> 18A-P
Intel 14A -- 14A-E

At least TSMC keeps it consistent with the enhanced P node coming after the numerical-only node. Intel is just all over the place. For some nodes, the first enhanced/optimization uses the suffix -T, others use -P, and then you also have -E.

Edit: Ahh, I see it now.


Jesus.
 

Saylick

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2012
3,210
6,560
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LOL.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/2127...=P, Performance Improvement,new node entirely.
P, Performance Improvement: These are nodes that offer a larger, but still modest, performance improvement over the base version of a node. A P node should offer 5 to 10 percent perf-per-watt improvement. They are essentially the “plus” version of a node. As an aside, if a new node offers a better than 10% perf-per-watt improvement, then Intel says we should expect it to be a new node entirely.
Gotta squeeze out as many nodes as possible.
 

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
5,372
8,209
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View attachment 94263

Yeah, can anyone tell me WTH is lifetime deal value at $15 billions?

It means that Intel expects to have $15B in foundry business from when they started offering foundry services until the end of time. This will be a dynamic number so as additional business is brought in, that number will grow. Most companies give a little more clear guidance in terms of how much in an expected time frame but since Intel's foundry business doesn't seem to have much going until 18a, they are basically getting you to ignore that the next 1 - 2 years of foundry business will be small.
 
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Tigerick

Senior member
Apr 1, 2022
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It means that Intel expects to have $15B in foundry business from when they started offering foundry services until the end of time. This will be a dynamic number so as additional business is brought in, that number will grow.

Or could be shrinking cause the contract is not signed officially.
Most companies give a little more clear guidance in terms of how much in an expected time frame but since Intel's foundry business doesn't seem to have much going until 18a, they are basically getting you to ignore that the next 1 - 2 years of foundry business will be small.
 

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
5,372
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Or could be shrinking cause the contract is not signed officially.

I would hope Intel has some really solid reason to give the number they do, but yes, when projecting numbers multiple years out, things can change from projections up or down. I think 18a will be really important for Intel to get an actual start in offering foundry services, but even if they get a ton of business on 18a, they have to be able to consistently win customers on future nodes. A recent example would be Nvidia with Samsung. Samsung got a huge volume of business from Nvidia for their Ampere generation (all but the top die which went to TSMC), but then Nvidia transitioned back to TSMC for their full product line after that. The foundry business is a rough business, it's not like Intel's more traditional business where they can wield a lot of influence over OEMs and enterprise customers to keep contracts going year after year.
 
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eek2121

Platinum Member
Aug 2, 2005
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Microsoft announced as an Intel 18a customer for an undisclosed product.

Yikes!

Microsoft going full Apple with their Surface line and WoA ???
The chip is an ARM chip.

No they aren’t going “full Apple”.

Microsoft Surface products have often contained ARM chips. The custom Microsoft ARM chip is said to focus primarily on AI performance, but won’t target the premium GPU/CPU segments (so, sounds like midrange).

We will see how things shape up as more details leak out.

AI seems like an obviously large bubble to me, and I am surprised so much money is being dumped into it.

(not that super advanced LLM auto completion engines don’t have use-cases, just not trillions of dollars of use cases)
 
Jul 27, 2020
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It will have to do with their cloud/AI business where all their growth is - that's what got their market cap to exceed Apple's.
Why not kill two birds with one stone and use the same ARM chiplet for both cloud and consumer? Consumers get max 12 or 16 cores while cloud gets hundreds of them nicely packaged together.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,111
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The years its quoting are not what they quoted before
This is the earliest "5 nodes in 4 years" link that I know of: https://www.intel.com/content/www/u...technology-roadmaps-milestones.html#gs.5do2na
"Intel 7 is in production...and additional products coming in 2022...
Intel 4...will be manufacturing-ready in the second half of 2022...
Intel 3...will be manufacturing-ready in the second half of 2023...
Intel 20A...will be manufacturing-ready in the first half of 2024
Intel 18A...will be manufacturing-ready in the second half of 2024."

Seems pretty much in line with what came out today, listing Intel 7, 4, and 3 as complete (that is, manufacturing ready); 20A and 18A in 2024. Do recall that these are (and always have been) manufacturing-ready deadlines, not in-customer's-hands deadlines. But if you want to add a year to 2025 for it to be in customer's hands, it is still 5 nodes in 4 years (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 looks like 4 years to me). Did I miss 2026 for 20A and 18A somewhere, because otherwise I don't understand your post?



Heck, if you want to go before that phrase to the first time that I recall seeing 18A, that wasn't supposed to be ready until the 2nd half of 2025: https://www.anandtech.com/show/1682...nm-3nm-20a-18a-packaging-foundry-emib-foveros
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,694
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looks like 5 nodes in 4 years already slipping

Bout that


Ha, that's why I only treated 5 nodes to be two major nodes

Indeed, Intel 4 and Intel 3 may as well be the same node (with 3 being a +), and ditto for 20a and 18a.
 

moinmoin

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2017
4,967
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AI seems like an obviously large bubble to me, and I am surprised so much money is being dumped into it.
It wouldn't be the large bubble without all the money being dumped into it. There are few opportunities for large companies to aim for near monopolies in major new markets. The AI hype makes them all try to outdo and outspend each other.
 
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