The polls are certainly not in bidens favor but dems have overperformed polls in pretty much every special election (except one) in the last two years, often by double digits. I'm not sure I'd read into popularity right now.
The polls are certainly not in bidens favor but dems have overperformed polls in pretty much every special election (except one) in the last two years, often by double digits. I'm not sure I'd read into popularity right now.Then how is Biden behind him in popularity??
Is it just because Trump is a big FUCK YOU LIBS to us?
I would be concerned if by the end of August Biden is behind but I don't expect him to be.The polls are certainly not in bidens favor but dems have overperformed polls in pretty much every special election (except one) in the last two years, often by double digits. I'm not sure I'd read into popularity right now.
I would be concerned if by the end of August Biden is behind but I don't expect him to be.
I'm not super concerned about it. Like I've said before Trump's big miscalculation is he's never understood (or is incapable of understanding) that the things he does to mobilize his supporters mobilize the Democrats as well. In 2016 he made a concerted effort to minimize those and even though he still lost the popular vote it was enough for him to squeak by. In 2020 he went all in on the base and it backfired big time.I don't wanna see this again with the dem base..
Happened in 2000 and 2016!
It wasn't a blowout for Biden in 2020 was it? IIRC it was pretty close.In 2020 he went all in on the base and it backfired big time.
It wasn't a blowout for Biden in 2020 was it? IIRC it was pretty close.
It wasn't a blowout for Biden in 2020 was it? IIRC it was pretty close.
Yes 3 states that flipped in 2016 would have stayed D if no 3rd party. But there were far more people that just didn’t vote Hillary even though they voted Obama. Turnout is going to be the deciding factor not 3rd party.That's what I've been trying to tell them. 2020 was basically 2016 without Stein and Johnson which benefitted Biden.
This time around those spoilers are back and then there's RFK Jr.
Ignore the head to head, or 4-way polls at this point. Fine. But Biden's approval ratings have sucked for well over 2 years, with little directional movement at any time. I'm not filling diapers like some folks, but I think it's delusional to just brush things off and confidently proclaim Biden is gonna outperform 2020. Four years ago, Biden was about +5 in the national average around this time.The polls are certainly not in bidens favor but dems have overperformed polls in pretty much every special election (except one) in the last two years, often by double digits. I'm not sure I'd read into popularity right now.
Ignore the head to head, or 4-way polls at this point. Fine. But Biden's approval ratings have sucked for well over 2 years, with little directional movement at any time. I'm not filling diapers like some folks, but I think it's delusional to just brush things off and confidently proclaim Biden is gonna outperform 2020. Four years ago, Biden was about +5 in the national average around this time.
At least @fskimospy is reasonable and says we can evaluate things better in 3 months.
Also, it's the battleground states that matter. Biden may be effectively "tied" nationally at this point, but the picture is shakier in the 6 states that matter.
2020 was actually pretty close if you look at the margin of victory in a few critical states. The fictitious "national popular vote" is irrelevant.
Once you make a donation, you get so fucking many emails for polls and shit. I absolutely never answer themHonest question--who is actually responding to polls, and how?
It can't be land lines at this point....and I never answer my cell unless it's a contact or are expecting some important call (far too much "would you like to sell your property" and other spam). I likewise wouldn't answer an email if a poll were somehow sent to me.
While I knew it was a losing proposition I totally supported Amy McGrath in the last Kentucky Senate election.Once you make a donation, you get so fucking many emails for polls and shit. I absolutely never answer them
Unfortunately it's not 2020 anymore, Biden approval is in the shittiest part of the shitter, the media is pushing all his negatives hard. Regardless if young people are not seeing the bigger picture, he has lost so many due to facilitating ethnic cleansing in Gaza. I still think Biden is a solid shot to win, but living in 2020 is just poor form right now, and will cause poor decisions to get so cocky.An incumbent president lost re-election and managed to flip the Senate to the opposition in the process and aftermath delivering his opponents a trifecta. Yes, it was a historically bad result.
Biden did +4 points in the PV which is better than Obama did in 2012. Trump was -2 in 2016. In EC terms Biden's win wasn't much stronger than Trump in 16 but his margins were better in PA/MI/WI plus managed to squeak out GA/AZ (the former being unthinkable at the time).
Unfortunately it's not 2020 anymore, Biden approval is in the shittiest part of the shitter, the media is pushing all his negatives hard. Regardless if young people are not seeing the bigger picture, he has lost so many due to facilitating ethnic cleansing in Gaza. I still think Biden is a solid shot to win, but living in 2020 is just poor form right now, and will cause poor decisions to get so cocky.
I've already said this a few times, but I answered a pollster on my cell phone in 2020 (I think it was June, maybe July), and I answered another one a few weeks back but it was just before I had to hop on a meeting so I wasn't able to participate.Honest question--who is actually responding to polls, and how?
It can't be land lines at this point....and I never answer my cell unless it's a contact or are expecting some important call (far too much "would you like to sell your property" and other spam). I likewise wouldn't answer an email if a poll were somehow sent to me.
Well as far as the presidential ticket goes, Trump barely lost. We were on pins and needles waiting for those few states to count. and the races in some of those states was fucking such a close call. We squeaked by. I wouldn't use the 2020 election on the presidential level as terrible for R's. They lost, but it was close.I was explaining the 2020 result not offering a prediction on 2024. If somebody wants to say that 2020 was not actually that bad for Rs I'm going to dispute it lol.
Well as far as the presidential ticket goes, Trump barely lost. We were on pins and needles waiting for those few states to count. and the races in some of those states was fucking such a close call. We squeaked by. I wouldn't use the 2020 election on the presidential level as terrible for R's. They lost, but it was close.
I was getting at least a dozen emails a day after donating via actblue. I ended up going dev/null with everything related to politics when the various unsubscribe requests didn't do anything.Once you make a donation, you get so fucking many emails for polls and shit. I absolutely never answer them
under 11k votes in Arizona. Not so good.The suspense was more a function of the COVID era switch to higher usage of mail voting in a lot of states. Especially PA where they could not start counting them until the polls were closed but Biden went on to beat Trump by more than 80K votes. Would have been no suspense if the ballots had already been processed like other states do.
With their draconian abortion ban, I would expect a pretty solid blue turnout, especially from young women.under 11k votes in Arizona. Not so good.
Let's see if the voting bstructions Republicans have put up are effective or not. They've been doing so for four years. The Dems have to include this in calculations.With their draconian abortion ban, I would expect a pretty solid blue turnout, especially from young women.
I wholeheartedly agree. I'm in the same boat, baffled (and certainly concerned) trump is even polling as well as he is, but as another pundit on the republican side even proclaimed, you sure as fuck wanna be Biden right now, not trump.Ignore the head to head, or 4-way polls at this point. Fine. But Biden's approval ratings have sucked for well over 2 years, with little directional movement at any time. I'm not filling diapers like some folks, but I think it's delusional to just brush things off and confidently proclaim Biden is gonna outperform 2020. Four years ago, Biden was about +5 in the national average around this time.
At least @fskimospy is reasonable and says we can evaluate things better in 3 months.
Also, it's the battleground states that matter. Biden may be effectively "tied" nationally at this point, but the picture is shakier in the 6 states that matter.
2020 was actually pretty close if you look at the margin of victory in a few critical states. The fictitious "national popular vote" is irrelevant.