News Intel 1Q24 Earnings Report

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controlflow

Member
Feb 17, 2015
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People are a little too hard on Pat. There's really only so much you can do when your product lead times can be longer than the time he's been CEO.

There was no chance of having the Intel ship fully turned around by now and their only chance of looking good was everyone else failing worse than they had.

They still have a way to go before the bad decisions of the past decade stop haunting them.
This.
Most people just don't have a grasp on the development cycle lengths in this industry, especially on the process side.

Pat's vision may or may not pan out, but his plan was never going to produce results this soon even if his decisions were sound.
 

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
5,360
8,146
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That s made up numbers, if CCG made 3.6bn how is it that Intel foundry made 2.5bn loss.?.
It means that the client CPUs are sold at close to production cost if the foundry doesnt get enough money for this supply, it s not like these are two different firms.

That's why I mentioned in my prediction post that they are increasing margins in the design units by basically transferring the costs to the fab unit.
 
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Fabio Italy

Junior Member
Apr 25, 2024
3
5
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And Zen 5 has not hit yet. When it does, if all rumors are even half true, they have even a more serious problem, desktop AND server, as well as mobil. And HEDT is non-existent for them.
Umh, Zen 4 hit so much in 2023 that Intel closed the client sector (desktop and mobile) with a profit of 6.5 billion dollars, while AMD closed the client sector with a deficit of 50 million dollars. HEDT is also included in the client segment. A minimum of objectivity, come on.
 

Ghostsonplanets

Senior member
Mar 1, 2024
384
645
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Umh, Zen 4 hit so much in 2023 that Intel closed the client sector (desktop and mobile) with a profit of 6.5 billion dollars, while AMD closed the client sector with a deficit of 50 million dollars. HEDT is also included in the client segment. A minimum of objectivity, come on.
Slump in the PC sector + Intel slashed margins and flooded mobile channel with ADL/RPL 282 at cheap prices. AMD preferred to hold and preserve their margins.
 

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
5,360
8,146
136
People are a little too hard on Pat. There's really only so much you can do when your product lead times can be longer than the time he's been CEO.

There was no chance of having the Intel ship fully turned around by now and their only chance of looking good was everyone else failing worse than they had.

They still have a way to go before the bad decisions of the past decade stop haunting them.

If you go back and read the interviews and press releases from Pat early on in his CEO tenure it becomes obvious that if anyone was expecting too much too soon from his influence over the company, it's his own fault.
 

gdansk

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2011
2,149
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Umh, Zen 4 hit so much in 2023 that Intel closed the client sector (desktop and mobile) with a profit of 6.5 billion dollars, while AMD closed the client sector with a deficit of 50 million dollars. HEDT is also included in the client segment. A minimum of objectivity, come on.
The fabrication side, however, lost how many billion making those client chips? I wager some of the managers at Intel's fabs would like to charge Intel Client a much higher fee.

But if your point is that Zen 5 won't kill Intel then sure. All it'll do is eat into server because AMD is done playing the low margin game.

Meanwhile Intel has a trump card. They can sell parts at low margin. Their fabs don't have to achieve margins to finance future process development. The US and Germany have decided to pay for it regardless.
 
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Fabio Italy

Junior Member
Apr 25, 2024
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Crollo del settore PC + Intel taglia i margini e inonda il canale mobile con ADL/RPL 282 a prezzi convenienti. AMD ha preferito mantenere e preservare i propri margini.
No more fat cows for both producers due to the pandemic of recent years. However, Intel closed (good for that) 2023 with a decent profit on the customer, precisely 6.5 billion dollars. AMD had no margin in 2023, as it closed WITH A LOSS of $50 million (i always talk about the client). AMD has a profitability problem in the client, vice versa Intel has a profitability problem in the data center. This is what the financial statements of the respective companies say in 2023.
 
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Fabio Italy

Junior Member
Apr 25, 2024
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5
36
I repeat, the balance sheets referring to the client sector for 2023 say this: Intel plus (+) $6.5 billion, AMD minus (-) $50 million. This is what the financial statements certified by auditors say. For many of you I see that it is difficult to accept such a simple truth, yet they are simple numbers.
 
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Ghostsonplanets

Senior member
Mar 1, 2024
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Pat Gelsinger:

First, with Intel Products, we have exposed a solid fabless franchise with established, powerful and
hard-to-displace installed base and ecosystems across enterprise, consumer and edge that
provide meaningful benefits to our customers and partners. Intel Products is a solidly profitable
business today, despite just recently emerging from a semiconductor downturn and still
competing with legacy process technology. That is changing rapidly as we ramp Intel 3 in 2024
and Intel 18A in 2025.

as standards emerge and applications begin to take
advantage of new AI-embedded capabilities, we see demand signals improving, especially in 2H
of the year helped by a likely corporate refresh. Our Core® Ultra™ ramp, led by Meteor Lake,
continues to accelerate beyond our original expectation, with units expected to double
sequentially in Q2, limited only by our supply of wafer level assembly. Improving 2H MTL supply
and the addition of Lunar Lake and Arrow Lake later this year will allow us to ship in excess of our
original 40 million AI PC CPU target in 2024

Of course, more competitive wafers, combined with our position as the only company
manufacturing with leading-edge wafers outside of Asia is drawing strong interest from potential
external customers. It is important to note that our leadership in advanced packaging creates
more value in our wafer technologies, and wafer-level assembly and base die opportunities further
fill our factories and extend the useful life of our tools for increased financial returns.
I am pleased to announce that this quarter we signed another meaningful customer on Intel 18A
bringing our total to six. A leader in the aerospace and defense industry, this customer chose Intel
Foundry based not only on the process technology benefits of Intel 18A but also because of their
desire to have a secure, U.S.-only supply base. Just this week, we were very pleased to announce
that the DoD (U.S. Department of Defense) awarded Intel Foundry Phase 3 of the Ramp-C
program, which we are confident will lead to additional federal, aerospace and defense customers.
More broadly, we are seeing growing interest in Intel 18A, and we continue to have a strong
pipeline of nearly 50 test chips. The near-term interest in Intel Foundry continues to be strongest
with advanced packaging, which now includes engagements with nearly every foundry customer
in the industry, including five design awards.

Now turning to our Q2 guidance. We expect revenue of $12.5 billion to $13.5 billion in the second
quarter, with the midpoint aligned to typical seasonal growth. At the midpoint of $13 billion, we
expect gross margin of approximately 43.5%, with a tax rate of 13% and EPS of $0.10, all on a non-
GAAP basis.

Dave Zinsner, Intel chief financial officer

We see the client and data center businesses roughly flat to Q1 results, at the low end of seasonal.
Q2 client revenue is constrained by wafer level assembly supply, which is impacting our ability to
meet demand for Core™ Ultra-based AI PCs. We do expect sequential growth from Mobileye,
NEX and Foundry Services. As we look beyond Q2 guidance, we expect growth across all
segments in the second half of the year, led by improved demand for general-purpose servers
from both cloud and enterprise customers, and increased Core Ultra assembly capacity to
support a growing PC TAM (total addressable market) driven by enterprise refresh and the AI PC.
We should also see accelerating growth from our network and edge businesses, a return to growth
for Altera and a meaningful Gaudi ramp in the second half.


Closing – Pat Gelsinger, Intel chief executive officer:

Let me say thank you for the questions and for joining us on the call today. We appreciate the
opportunity to update you on our solid Q1 results and to recap the numerous accomplishments
we’ve made since the start of the year. We continue to make steady progress driving product and
AI innovation, executing our leadership process roadmap, and delivering new foundry customers
as we transform the company for improved competitiveness and financial results.
And if any of you will be attending Computex in Taiwan in a few months, I look forward to seeing
you there. We’ll be announcing a wide range of products and offerings all centered on AI
momentum and competitiveness.
We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.
 

Tigerick

Senior member
Apr 1, 2022
677
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High opex on investment and elevated inventory levels.
AMD wasn't doing mass layoffs, you see.
Really? AMD's fabless operating loss compared to Intel's fab liability with earnings. That's your conclusion?

No wonder you predict AMD will charge $999 for 16 core Zen 5 and even higher for X3D version.
 

Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,030
3,661
136
That's why I mentioned in my prediction post that they are increasing margins in the design units by basically transferring the costs to the fab unit.
Of course but that s an arbitrary repartition, since a fab is supposed to sell at worst
at production cost it means that their net total income is something like 0.5bn
excluding financial related payements.

So they are selling all their products with an average 4% net margin, guess that they are hell bent on keeping their marketshares at all costs, litteraly.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,654
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The fabrication side, however, lost how many billion making those client chips?

The losses are coming from the new nodes not being used yet in any products. That's why they need those fat margins from server to pay it forward.
 

Tigerick

Senior member
Apr 1, 2022
677
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106
I repeat, the balance sheets referring to the client sector for 2023 say this: Intel plus (+) $6.5 billion, AMD minus (-) $50 million. This is what the financial statements certified by auditors say. For many of you I see that it is difficult to accept such a simple truth, yet they are simple numbers.
For those who don't know, Intel's client PC revenue was $29.3 billion last year. Meanwhile, AMD's client revenue was $4.6 billion, that's less than 16% of Intel's revenue. Nonetheless, we might see some changes this year AND it is not because of Zen5 desktop CPU. Desktop CPU is about 20% TAM. That's why all the talk about Zen5 desktop CPU going to rule the PC market is non-sense.

The biggest market is mobile PC market. Intel has almost 80% mobile PC market share. With manufacturing capability, no one can fight with Intel in supplying mobile CPU. With MTL, things starting to change. I don't believe the constraint is cause of Intel 4's supply. Most likely because the rest of the tiles are made by TSMC. That's mean Intel is constrained by TSMC's supply.

Later this year, ARL-HX/H, ARL-S and LNL are all made by TSMC. I am expecting high BOM and low supply at the same time. Let's see how Intel's client PC care this year..
 
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Ghostsonplanets

Senior member
Mar 1, 2024
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I don't believe the constraint is cause of Intel 4's supply. Most likely because the rest of the tiles are made by TSMC. That's mean Intel is constrained by TSMC's supply.
The comments seem to imply that they're constrained by their WLA though?

Our Core® Ultra™ ramp, led by Meteor Lake,
continues to accelerate beyond our original expectation, with units expected to double
sequentially in Q2, limited only by our supply of wafer level assembly.
Q2 client revenue is constrained by wafer level assembly supply,

If I'm reading correctly, probably a bottleneck on Malaysia packaging foundry capabilities.
 
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Tigerick

Senior member
Apr 1, 2022
677
559
106
The comments seem to imply that they're constrained by their WLA though?




If I'm reading correctly, probably a bottleneck on Malaysia packaging foundry capabilities.
Hard to say cause with upcoming ARL and LNL are all requiring packaging, do you believe Intel is not planning ahead?
 

Ghostsonplanets

Senior member
Mar 1, 2024
384
645
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Hard to say cause with upcoming ARL and LNL are all requiring packaging, do you believe Intel is not planning ahead?
I think it's more likely that it's a combination of everything, if we go by Pat words.

MTL beyond Intel expectations, so they had to ramp up orders at TSMC and also their own Intel 4/3 wafers. And packaging assembly being constrained by Malaysia capabilities currently (From Intel All Access MTL, Foveros assembly and packaging is done only at Malaysia currently). Intel says they expect outlook to be much better in H2, which is right where LNL and ARL will come to market + MTL higher HVM.

Does Intel has others sites with Foveros packaging capabilities?
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,022
2,482
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View attachment 97835
HAHAHAHAHHA hahahahaha hahaaaaaaaaa YES.
It's nothing!

Can't wait for the call, the street gonna eat Pat ALIVE.

I pointed out to people who thought the $1 billion "pipeline", then $2 billion Gaudi "pipeline" were real, that the pipeline was a complete BS. Basically a lie, except, Intel can claim "pipeline" is whatever they say "pipeline" is. It is meaningless.

It was pure BS, and now we have evidence.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,022
2,482
106
That s made up numbers, if CCG made 3.6bn how is it that Intel foundry made 2.5bn loss.?.
It means that the client CPUs are sold at close to production cost if the foundry doesnt get enough money for this supply, it s not like these are two different firms.

The way Intel is playing it is by creating 2 fictitious companies: Products and Foundry.

Products is to have no assets and be fabulously profitable, by getting the wafers for next to nothing. So this half of the company would be valued based on profits.

Foundry will have zero profits, but billions and billions of "assets". Intel is hoping that this "business" that is giving away dies > 2 billion below cost will be valued based on "assets" - Fabs and their equipment.

Sum of the 2 could be valued at a multiple of current Intel valuation, if you buy into the fiction.
 
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Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
2,022
2,482
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Trying to find a reliable source, but apparently Gelsinger has said that Intel can't supply enough Intel 4/3 wafers for MTL and Q2 guidance will also be weak for client due to this.

How do they plan to reach 40M AI PCs EoY if they can't supply themselves? Are they expecting Lunar Lake to compose the majority of this 40M AI PCs sales?

20A is a test node with only one DT die fabbed on it. It won't be a volume node.

Pat said that the bottleneck for Meteor Lake production is "wafer assembly". It came a bit out of the left field.

I have speculated that the overcomplicated Meteor Lake design and partition will be an albatross around its neck (from cost POV) and now it is manifesting itself in other ways (beyond cost).
 
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