Discussion RDNA4 + CDNA3 Architectures Thread

[DisEnchantment]

With the GFX940 patches in full swing since first week of March, it is looking like MI300 is not far in the distant future!
Usually AMD takes around 3Qs to get the support in LLVM and amdgpu. Lately, since RDNA2 the window they push to add support for new devices is much reduced to prevent leaks.
But looking at the flurry of code in LLVM, it is a lot of commits. Maybe because US Govt is starting to prepare the SW environment for El Capitan (Maybe to avoid slow bring up situation like Frontier for example)

See here for the GFX940 specific commits

History for llvm/lib/Target/AMDGPU - llvm/llvm-project

The LLVM Project is a collection of modular and reusable compiler and toolchain technologies. - History for llvm/lib/Target/AMDGPU - llvm/llvm-project

github.com

Or Phoronix

More AMD "GFX940" Enablement Work Landing In LLVM - Phoronix

www.phoronix.com

There is a lot more if you know whom to follow in LLVM review chains (before getting merged to github), but I am not going to link AMD employees.

I am starting to think MI300 will launch around the same time like Hopper probably only a couple of months later!
Although I believe Hopper had problems not having a host CPU capable of doing PCIe 5 in the very near future therefore it might have gotten pushed back a bit until SPR and Genoa arrives later in 2022.
If PVC slips again I believe MI300 could launch before it

This is nuts, MI100/200/300 cadence is impressive.



Previous thread on CDNA2 and RDNA3 here

Question - Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now. First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time! Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3...

forums.anandtech.com

 

[blckgrffn]

SInce Jensen can do no wrong, I bet the AMD gain is a direct result of too much demand for Geforce RTX cards leading to cards going out of stock in many places and buyers settling for the inferior AMD cards instead of returning home empty handed and crying themselves to sleep.

/s

Reddit still hates AMD with the fire of a million suns outside of r/amd, with every post lamenting crazy issues when people “gave AMD a chance” and came back to the promised land and warm embrace of Nvidia.

However on sites like Slickdeals there is definitely an eye now turned to value and Nvidia has lost mindshare there compared to what I observed maybe 3-5 years ago. Good will has been burnt and folks seem to upvote both AMD and worthy Intel deals.

It is what it is, but a better split is a healthier market.

On RDNA 4 being the bottom end, it makes sense to me for a while at least. If we get multi chip RDNA5 from say $700-$2500 a “refreshed” RDNA4 (gddr7?) probably makes sense at $600 and below for longer than we would like. My $.02.

 

[Abwx]

Despite this, AMD still got additional 7% in 2023

Those numbers include only the GPUs shipped by a few brands within commercials PCs, DTs and laptops, the consumers GPU market is not included, so that s numbers that are very far from reality, as an exemple of consumer s market here the weekly GPUs sales of the biggest german retailer :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1773071733500600740

 

[SolidQ]

GPUs sales of the biggest german retailer

I know about it. Despite it, some people still think, AMD will fight with Intel for 5-10% marketshare, and Nvidia will sit with 90% forever

 

[igor_kavinski]

Lovely to see people getting wiser. Go ahead, Jensen. Release another 8GB stinker and see your sales go through the roof!

 

[Aapje]

Don't think it's a "cannot read the market" thing, it's that the margins suck of the product they do sell...

They are obviously able to sell for less, given that they do. I think that only Intel sells their GPUs at a loss or at production cost (which means that they make a loss if you factor in R&D).

 

[igor_kavinski]

I think that only Intel sells their GPUs at a loss

It's the obligatory cost for establishing a customer base for future sales.

 

[jpiniero]

They are obviously able to sell for less, given that they do.

I think the "cutting prices soon after release" is AMD trying to get actual margins on the GPUs... and failing...

 

[gdansk]

I think the "cutting prices soon after release" is AMD trying to get actual margins on the GPUs... and failing...

I think it's aiming to get near Nvidia margins without spending all that much on R&D. And where possible getting Sony/Microsoft to pay for R&D.

Consumers aren't falling for it - they only buy Radeon when they adjust their margins down closer to what they deserve.

 

[Abwx]

I know about it. Despite it, some people still think, AMD will fight with Intel for 5-10% marketshare, and Nvidia will sit with 90% forever

That s deliberate ignorance from their part, when we look at the financials of both firms it s obvious that JPR numbers are heavily flawed, FI Nvidia s consumers sales are far from being 4x those of AMD s, that s about 1.8-2x IIRC, and that s in $ share not on numbers of units sold.

Now on RDNA4 rumours i guess that AMD is targeting 90% of the market with their next GPU line, and it s not even sure that the higher end account for 10% of the sales, eventually in revenues, so it make sense to concentrate on products that are up to the 7900XT level and below.

 

[jpiniero]

That s deliberate ignorance from their part, when we look at the financials of both firms it s obvious that JPR numbers are heavily flawed, FI Nvidia s consumers sales are far from being 4x those of AMD s, that s about 1.8-2x IIRC, and that s in $ share not on numbers of units sold.

It's way higher than that... esp given that the "Gaming" segment includes the full cost of the console dies...

PS5 is (was?) like $1B+ per quarter alone.

 

[adroc_thurston]

that they'll be rebranded into the bottom tier of the RDNA5 stack.

but RDNA5 has mainstream parts too.

The end result is that AMD gets bad reviews and constantly runs into getting bad sales after launch

Their AIB share is back up so that's just outright false.

I am wondering if this is the next Polaris vs being a flash in the pan. Optimized die sizes, better than or competitive with current gen consoles and the full DX 12U feature set

no it's a totes new uArch that got its wacky halo sawed off.
Polaris was a dieshrink priced at idiotic levels.

this could really be the “bottom” end of the AMD lineup for the next 3 years or so

Every GPU gen is a full stack.
No rebrands.

a “refreshed” RDNA4 (gddr7?) probably makes sense at $600 and below for longer than we would like

You. are. getting. a full. stack. of GPUs. each gen.
no reason to sell older less area/power/yadda efficient IP.

 

[MrTeal]

It's way higher than that... esp given that the "Gaming" segment includes the full cost of the console dies...

PS5 is (was?) like $1B+ per quarter alone.

We'll see what it looks like when Q1 results come out now that full stacks are out for both vendors. Q4 AMD had $1.46B for gaming including the semi-custom work. It'd be nice is they broke that out, but we're left guessing. Nvidia had gaming revenue of $2.9B which would all gaming, plus another $0.46B in Professional Visualization that's broken out for things like RTX 2000 Ada. I'm not sure where AMD reports revenue for the Radeon Pros; it seems more likely in Gaming than DC but I can't easily find a source on that.

4x seems more likely than 1.7-2x though if you're just looking at GPUs in PCs.

 

[Aapje]

Their AIB share is back up so that's just outright false.

How does this disprove what I said?

 

[moinmoin]

You. are. getting. a full. stack. of GPUs. each gen.
no reason to sell older less area/power/yadda efficient IP.

That may well be. The question of interest is whether the gen's halo part is competitive (both with the competition as well as its previous gen).

 

[adroc_thurston]

The question of interest is whether the gen's halo part is competitive

Made for data center so it has to crush it.
No way out.

 

[branch_suggestion]

Made for data center so it has to crush it.
No way out.

And the people who rage constantly about RDNA having weird fringe issues should stop complaining by then, as such issues wouldn't be acceptable for a DC GPGPU.

 

[blckgrffn]

but RDNA5 has mainstream parts too.

Their AIB share is back up so that's just outright false.

no it's a totes new uArch that got its wacky halo sawed off.
Polaris was a dieshrink priced at idiotic levels.

Every GPU gen is a full stack.
No rebrands.

You. are. getting. a full. stack. of GPUs. each gen.
no reason to sell older less area/power/yadda efficient IP.

I get that we will get there eventually. My point would be is we would typically get the big boy RDNA 5 parts at the top and then we get the mainstream parts “later” - months or quarters? During that overlap we get a mixed lineup card.

Even now the best value AMD card is the RDNA 2 6700XT. I have no idea what the actual sales numbers but that and the 6600 seem to be going just fine, the 6700XT launched just over 3 years ago. For all the talk of RDNA4 being a much smaller scoped launch - as you said, the top end SKUs removed - the implication seemed to be that RDNA4 parts would have shorter shelf life.

You know better than most it seems, so how long will the RDNA5 roll out will take top to bottom? Are they still making the 6700XT?

 

[adroc_thurston]

My point would be is we would typically get the big boy RDNA 5 parts at the top and then we get the mainstream parts “later” - months or quarters?

Well yeah that's how it always goes outside of extreme esoterica cases (Navi4c).

For all the talk of RDNA4 being a much smaller scoped launch

They replace the entire N3x stack so not really?

You know better than most it seems, so how long will the RDNA5 roll out will take top to bottom?

takes like 2Q for either vendor to dump all the stack across segments.

 

[igor_kavinski]

So am I correct in assuming that RDNA4 will be facing off Battlemage this year? And nSidious will only possibly release 5070/5080/5090? Would be cool if RDNA4 can beat at least 5070.

 

[SolidQ]

RDNA4 can beat at least 5070.

Don't know true or not true, MLID was saying RDNA4 is release much earlier, than 5070

 

[Mahboi]

I think the "cutting prices soon after release" is AMD trying to get actual margins on the GPUs... and failing...

I do not see how AMD can sell an rx 7600 for $270 and not make margins.
It's a tiny monolithic 200mm² die on N6. Which shouldn't be under any kind of demand pressure.
If they could sell an rx 6600 for $200 for over a year, when it was released under N7, which had a bigger die, they are easily making margins. Very easily.

 

[igor_kavinski]

I do not see how AMD can sell an rx 7600 for $270 and not make margins.

Yeah, it's wayyy overpriced. I wish it had at least 10GB RAM for them to be charging that much for it.

 

[SolidQ]

AMD can sell an rx 7600 for $270

It's most bad RDNA3 card, there is RTX 4060 for same price already. At least hope N44 with perfomance around 7700XT for 300$ would be fine.

 

[igor_kavinski]

At least hope N44 with perfomance around 7700XT for 300$ would be fine.

Performance of 7700XT but with 16GB VRAM!

 

[blckgrffn]

Performance of 7700XT but with 16GB VRAM!

That would actually be mildly disruptive to the market.

I call shenanigans!