Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[Rigg]

AMD have never been afraid to hike prices when they have the best product. They did it in the athlon 64 FX days, they did it a bit with Zen 3 and if Zen 5 has no competition they will do it again.

Sure, but a 43% a MSRP hike on 950X seems a bit crazy. The 5950X didn't have any competition for a year yet they only increased MSRP by 7% over 3950x.

 

[Fjodor2001]

AMD have never been afraid to hike prices when they have the best product. They did it in the athlon 64 FX days, they did it a bit with Zen 3 and if Zen 5 has no competition they will do it again.

Regarding competition, I guess it depends on who you want to believe.

According to an article on Techradar based on e.g. MLID predictions we have this:

"According to one of the YouTuber’s top Intel sources, Arrow Lake is set to be a 25% to 35% performance boost over Meteor Lake, as MLID has been saying for some time now – and that’s a minimum (so it could turn out better – we recall one leak suggesting 40%, though that was a good way back now).
[...]
while Arrow Lake could be a much bigger leap for performance (35% versus 15-20%, so perhaps double the gains AMD provides), Zen 5 might be first to market by a clear couple of months. Zen 5 may also (apply seasoning) be a fair bit cheaper, as Arrow Lake is built on a more advanced (and expensive) process (3nm, versus 4nm for AMD).
[...]
MLID also points out that while Arrow Lake is expected to be in pole position for overall raw performance at launch, AMD will soon have X3D spins for Zen 5 desktop processors on the case – and these will level out any advantage that Team Blue has."

Not sure what to make of that. Indication is that Intel Arrow Lake will have higher performance than Zen5 and therefore also will be even more expensive. Then a new LGA1851 socket for Intel on top of that adding cost, unless upgrading from another platform anyway.

Arrow Lake could offer huge performance gains, but AMD’s Zen 5 might still defeat Intel’s mighty next-gen CPUs

Intel should win for raw performance, at least initially – but there’s more to consider here

www.techradar.com

 

[Markfw]

Regarding competition, I guess it depends on who you want to believe.

According to an article on Techradar based on e.g. MLID predictions we have this:

"According to one of the YouTuber’s top Intel sources, Arrow Lake is set to be a 25% to 35% performance boost over Meteor Lake, as MLID has been saying for some time now – and that’s a minimum (so it could turn out better – we recall one leak suggesting 40%, though that was a good way back now).
[...]
while Arrow Lake could be a much bigger leap for performance (35% versus 15-20%, so perhaps double the gains AMD provides), Zen 5 might be first to market by a clear couple of months. Zen 5 may also (apply seasoning) be a fair bit cheaper, as Arrow Lake is built on a more advanced (and expensive) process (3nm, versus 4nm for AMD).
[...]
MLID also points out that while Arrow Lake is expected to be in pole position for overall raw performance at launch, AMD will soon have X3D spins for Zen 5 desktop processors on the case – and these will level out any advantage that Team Blue has."

Not sure what to make of that. Indication is that Intel Arrow Lake will have higher performance than Zen5 and therefore also will be even more expensive. Then a new LGA1851 socket for Intel on top of that adding cost, unless upgrading from another platform anyway.

Arrow Lake could offer huge performance gains, but AMD’s Zen 5 might still defeat Intel’s mighty next-gen CPUs

Intel should win for raw performance, at least initially – but there’s more to consider here

www.techradar.com

The question you did not address is availability. It seems Zen 5 will be soon, while we know Arrow lake is a ways out. Will Zen 6 come out before Arrow lake ? I am just going to wait and see. And still waiting to see a DT or server Intel sku that does not suck the power (yes, meteorlake is getting in the ballpark, notice I said desktop and server)

 

[Fjodor2001]

The question you did not address is availability. It seems Zen 5 will be soon, while we know Arrow lake is a ways out. Will Zen 6 come out before Arrow lake ? I am just going to wait and see. And still waiting to see a DT or server Intel sku that does not suck the power (yes, meteorlake is getting in the ballpark, notice I said desktop and server)

Right. The article says this regarding Arrow Lake availability:

"MLID believes that Arrow Lake desktop CPUs (to succeed Raptor Lake Refresh) are still on course for a late 2024 launch, again as rumored for a long time now – but the catch is the YouTuber suggests that this could be a paper launch.
[...]
In other words, real production volume and lots of stock on shelves may not happen until early 2025 – which is when Arrow Lake laptop CPUs will launch to take the baton from Meteor Lake.
[...]
Meanwhile Lunar Lake, for notebooks only as mentioned, is going to be out in Q4 2024, and that’s a firmer prospect now, we’re told.
[...]
The likelihood is that we’ll see both Arrow Lake desktop and Lunar Lake before this year is out, at roughly the same time, late in 2024, in Q4. The key question for those looking at a next-gen CPU is – will Zen 5 be out first, and obviously how might these rival ranges stack up?"

So Arrow Lake might not be available until late 2024 or early 2025, but certainly before Zen6 and likely before Zen5 X3D.

 

[Gideon]

Sure, but a 43% a MSRP hike on 950X seems a bit crazy. The 5950X didn't have any competition for a year yet they only increased MSRP by 7% over 3950x.

Well AMD did a price hike like this with Threadripper.

In the early days their low end had similar price per core as Ryzen. This chamge Also made little sense to me (for the reasons you listed), at least for the 16 - 24 core parts (as the platform is already way more expensive) BTW Intel never did this, even when they had no HEDT competition. They always had low end 4-6 core chips that were in the price range of high end consumer chips (per core).

As for initial price hikes to MSRP that are changed in months. This might be due to availability. If the initial demand outstrips supply, AMD would rather pocket the difference than retailers.

 

[mikk]

The likelihood is that we’ll see both Arrow Lake desktop and Lunar Lake before this year is out, at roughly the same time, late in 2024, in Q4. The key question for those looking at a next-gen CPU is – will Zen 5 be out first, and obviously how might these rival ranges stack up?"[/I]

So Arrow Lake might not be available until late 2024 or early 2025, but certainly before Zen6 and likely before Zen5 X3D.

Zen 5 mobile paper launch possibly late this year but won't be available till some time later in H1 2025. It's always like this from AMD.

 

[FlameTail]

I dont like memes at all, but one cant deny that they are very creative about thoses rumours at WCCF TROLLs Inc forums...

Man, this thread is wild...

 

[Abwx]

As for initial price hikes to MSRP that are changed in months. This might be due to availability. If the initial demand outstrips supply, AMD would rather pocket the difference than retailers.

People s income cant be hiked easily, they ll have to account for customers purchasing power, also with low quantities they ll have to pay higher prices to TSMC, that would be very short sighted to rely on the short term gains rather than proping up the consumers good perception of AMD, and this can be enabled only with a significant marketshare.

 

[Timmah!]

Well AMD did a price hike like this with Threadripper.

They did, when they increased core count from initial 16. And then again later, with the WX line-up, which however was marketed as separate, sort of superior tier. As it the case again now with TRs 7000s. Either way, its not comparable situation.
Anything can happen, but 1000 seems very unlikely. You did not see Nvidia hiking the price on 4090 compared to 3090 like that, and that one had no competition for sure. Nor do you see Apple increasing iPhone price by 300 USD/EUROs from year to year - they would first create some Pro, Ultra, Max, whatever S-tier to sell at such price.

 

[igor_kavinski]

they would first create some Pro, Ultra, Max, whatever S-tier to sell at such price.

AMD could use the Ryzen Ultra name

Lisa, pay me if you use that!

 

[Rigg]

Here are the current prices and how a $499 Zen 5 would fit in:

7700X - $399 (Discounted to $269 at MicroCenter)
7800X3D - $449 (Discounted to $349 at MicroCenter)
9800X - $499 (base model no V-Cache)

I don't really see the point, of AMD provoking ire of customers and reviewers by unrealistically high price, only to discount it back to more "normal price a couple of months later.

AMD would still be printing money selling the CPU at $399 to $449 MSRP and not discounting...

The 7700x is $114 and the 7800X3D is $217 at MC with bundle pricing. If you add each individual item from the bundle (don't just add the bundle) you can see prices for the individual items shown in the cart with the discount applied. You can then return the mobo and/or RAM from the bundle if you don't want them, although the discounts are also okay on those items.

I'm not sure how relevant this is to the discussion, but it sure makes you wonder how concerned AMD is with maintaining high margin if they can cut a deal with a major US retailer that allows for discounts like that.

 

[igor_kavinski]

I'm not sure how relevant this is to the discussion, but it sure makes you wonder how concerned AMD is with maintaining high margin if they can cut a deal with a major US retailer that allows for discounts like that.

It's their masterplan to get AMD CPUs in as many homes and as many office desks as possible. It will continue after Zen 5 launch but with Zen 4 and Zen 3 and Mendocino etc.

 

[Fjodor2001]

The 7700x is $114 and the 7800X3D is $217 at MC with bundle pricing.

So if 9800X is $499 it will be more than 4x as expensive as 7700X. I think that will be very hard to justify for most people.

That said, the MC deals are insanely good. I wonder if AMD and MC both are clearing stock in preparation for Zen5 launch, although it seems a bit early for that unless the Zen4 inventory is very high.

 

[Elfear]

So if 9800X is $499 it will be more than 4x as expensive as 7700X. I think that will be very hard to justify for most people.

That said, the MC deals are insanely good. I wonder if AMD and MC both are clearing stock in preparation for Zen5 launch, although it seems a bit early for that unless the Zen4 inventory is very high.

MC deals are indeed insane and not representative of prices available to most buyers. Besides that, when Zen5 launches it will likely get its own bundle deals at MC so we can't compare those prices now. At most U.S. retailers, the 7800X3D is $370 and the 7700X is $285-$330. The point being made still remains though, if the 9800X is $499, it better offer some huge leaps in performance.

 

[Rigg]

So if 9800X is $499 it will be more than 4x as expensive as 7700X. I think that will be very hard to justify for most people.

That said, the MC deals are insanely good. I wonder if AMD and MC both are clearing stock in preparation for Zen5 launch, although it seems a bit early for that unless the Zen4 inventory is very high.

They've been doing bundle deals since last fall. I bought 2 7800X3D's last November in a previous iteration of the bundle that had a different motherboard. At the time the CPU price in the cart was just under $250. The discounts on the motherboard and RAM were larger than the current bundle. I returned them and bought higher end open box boards for less money than the price of the bundle board. I already had a few 32 gig DRR5 6000 C30 kits from the previous years holiday sales.

It's a fantastic deal whether you look at as a bundle or the individual CPU price. Unless you know the 'insider' tip I just shared in my last post you can't buy the CPU alone for that price though. I'm not sure it's totally fair to lay it out in the terms you did in your first sentence.

MC deals are indeed insane and not representative of prices available to most buyers. Besides that, when Zen5 launches it will likely get its own bundle deals at MC so we can't compare those prices now. At most U.S. retailers, the 7800X3D is $370 and the 7700X is $285-$330. The point being made still remains though, if the 9800X is $499, it better offer some huge leaps in performance.

Yes I agree. A bundle is likely especially if they go crazy on MSRP. The proposed 9800X price of $500 isn't nearly as bad as $1000 for a 9950X but I still think that $500 asking price is bad PR. You can buy a 7950X3D for $550 right now. The early adopter tax strategy is dumb. They seem committed to it on both the CPU and GPU side. At this point I wouldn't even consider buying an AMD product until it's selling at a discount from MSRP.

 

[DrMrLordX]

The 5950X didn't have any competition for a year yet they only increased MSRP by 7% over 3950x.

You also couldn't buy one for many months after launch. The only Vermeer available was the 5800X in that time period.

 

[Kaffeekenan]

Because comp pressure.
Which Zen5 has none of.
Not until 2026.

Hm yeah but 2026 should be, when Zen 6 arrives. So for intel it won't be enough if Nova lake beats Zen 5. They have to beat Zen 6...

 

[NTMBK]

I'm afraid I'm a bit out of the loop- what's the latest news on Strix Halo? I'm interested in it for a new gaming HTPC, but I'm not sure what performance it's aiming for, or when it's actually coming out.

 

[Timmah!]

AMD could use the Ryzen Ultra name

Lisa, pay me if you use that!

Haha, yes. Give the man his money :-D

Seriously though, they cant really do that IMO, as there is nothing about the product to market to justify the price increase. I mean, no additional cores, higher frequency, bigger cash, more RAM channels, whatever else they could possibly hang on to. And 40 percent more perf in one benchmark wont cut it. Especially if another one, like Cinebench, will show half the numbers.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I'm afraid I'm a bit out of the loop- what's the latest news on Strix Halo?

It exists.

or when it's actually coming out.

CES'25.

 

[CouncilorIrissa]

SIR isn’t just “one benchmark”, it’s THE benchmark, as opposed to cinebench.

The only thing more relevant for client is unironically gaming (and browsing maybe), but we’re not getting those numbers anytime soon.

 

[Gideon]

Now the hype has reached videocardz

AMD Zen5 architecture is allegedly 40% faster core-to-core than Zen4 in SPEC benchmarks - VideoCardz.com

Rumor: AMD Zen5 is 40% faster than Zen4 in SPEC benchmarks According to reputable leaker “Kepler_L2”, AMD’s next-gen CPU architecture is said to provide (up to) 40% increase over Zen4. AMD’s Zen 5 CPU architecture appears to be gearing up for a major improvement over its predecessor, Zen 4...

videocardz.com

 

[cytg111]

Now the hype has reached videocardz

AMD Zen5 architecture is allegedly 40% faster core-to-core than Zen4 in SPEC benchmarks - VideoCardz.com

Rumor: AMD Zen5 is 40% faster than Zen4 in SPEC benchmarks According to reputable leaker “Kepler_L2”, AMD’s next-gen CPU architecture is said to provide (up to) 40% increase over Zen4. AMD’s Zen 5 CPU architecture appears to be gearing up for a major improvement over its predecessor, Zen 4...

videocardz.com

I bet you cant get it to 60%...............

 

[FlameTail]

Advice of the day:

If you want to get high, just visit this thread.

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1774060521077260557

Granite Ridge >>>> Raphael
Granite Ridge >>>> Raptor Lake
Fire Range >>>> Dragon Range
Strix Point >>>>> Phoenix and Fire Range (? I'mprobably wrong here)
Strix Point >> Phoenix and Fire Range (? I'm probably wrong here)
Strix Point >>>> Meteor Lake
Strix Point >>> Meteor Lake (?)
Strix Halo >> N33

N48 > Cut down N31
N48 < Top N31
N44 > N33
N44 < N32

He also said in other tweet:

ARL?

Answer:

Granite Ridge >> Arrow Lake

I'm afraid I'm a bit out of the loop- what's the latest news on Strix Halo? I'm interested in it for a new gaming HTPC, but I'm not sure what performance it's aiming for, or when it's actually coming out.

All The Watts above just said STX Halo should outperform N33. But iirc STX Halo shouldn't be released as a DIY part. Only for Laptops or soldered Mini PCs.