Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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eek2121

Platinum Member
Aug 2, 2005
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It is possible that former "8950X" "8950HS" leaks could be fake

this is a new advertising material for old users of Alienware.



View attachment 88602
Of course they are fake. Actual SKUs aren’t formed yet. Desktop will probably be 9000 while mobile will be 8000 (unless AMD moves DIY to new naming scheme). I actually wanted to point this out a couple days ago, but got distracted.
Didn't AMD already show a slide where they confirmed Zen 5 Ryzen 8000 CPUs or am I mistaken?
Not that I am aware of, maybe I missed it? 8xxx for mobile, 9xxx for desktop.
 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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They should unironically contract IFS for dual sourcing MI300 packaging. I don’t think there’s much of an IP risk through packaging alone so it should be a serious consideration.

Nvidia is already dual sourcing packaging to keep up with demand and I’m fairly certain it’s through IFS.
I think Intel is using TSMC for their Gaudi2 card. I don't know about packaging, but it is possible Intel is outsourcing that as well.
 
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rtxtwt

Senior member
Jul 2, 2018
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Didn't AMD already show a slide where they confirmed Zen 5 Ryzen 8000 CPUs or am I mistaken?
Of course they are fake. Actual SKUs aren’t formed yet. Desktop will probably be 9000 while mobile will be 8000 (unless AMD moves DIY to new naming scheme). I actually wanted to point this out a couple days ago, but got distracted.

Not that I am aware of, maybe I missed it? 8xxx for mobile, 9xxx for desktop.

I don't know, I have short memories and couldn't remember any confirmation of Zen5DT naming I think there's none yet.

But TBH Zen naming scheme is confusing, Vidercardz just had a report that Zen4 APUs to be named 8000 series, if true the Zen5 DT series might be possible to get greater number.

 

Joe NYC

Platinum Member
Jun 26, 2021
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This attitude could be the difference between 2.0B in revenue vs 2.5B in revenue from MI300.
You have to wonder about the trajectory of those sales.

Gaudi became available in May 2023, and will not reach revenue in 100s of millions until 2024. And, BTW, that 2 billion projection from Intel - it did not have a time period on it.

Since the projections are vague, they can be retroactively redefined. Another example: 1 million SPR shipped. Most people assumed Intel was projecting selling 1 million SPR by mid 2023, but Intel missed that target, and then it became that Intel would ship 1 million SPR to its warehouse.

The 1m sales goal was reached sometimes in Q3.
 
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H433x0n

Senior member
Mar 15, 2023
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This. Lmao there is no way Intel grabbed a packaging contract of that scale and just went silent about it.
They would have to be silent about it. They’ve got prepay customers for Intel 3 & 18A and we still don’t know who it is. The last earnings call Pat Gelsinger specifically said they got multiple packaging deals for AI chips in Q3.
You have to wonder about the trajectory of those sales.

Gaudi became available in May 2023, and will not reach revenue in 100s of millions until 2024. And, BTW, that 2 billion projection from Intel - it did not have a time period on it.

Since the projections are vague, they can be retroactively redefined. Another example: 1 million SPR shipped. Most people assumed Intel was projecting selling 1 million SPR by mikd 2023, but Intel missed that target, and then it became that Intel would ship 1 million SPR to its warehouse.

The 1m sales goal was reached sometimes in Q3.
I was talking about MI300 and the comments during Q3 earnings call. Frankly I don’t know much about Gaudi’s performance or sales expectations.
 

Joe NYC

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Jun 26, 2021
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They would have to be silent about it. They’ve got prepay customers for Intel 3 & 18A and we still don’t know who it is. The last earnings call Pat Gelsinger specifically said they got multiple packaging deals for AI chips in Q3.

I was talking about MI300 and the comments during Q3 earnings call. Frankly I don’t know much about Gaudi’s performance or sales expectations.

I thought that's what you were referring to when comparing 2.0 and 2.5 billion in revenue.

Which is $500 million revenue per quarter. While NVidia revenue is expected to be about 20x that. Which is something to think about:

Are the packaging houses and TSMC going to deliberately keep NVidia at 97% of this revenue while keeping everyone else combined to below 3%. That would be crazy and suicidal strategy for them.

I don't think these companies are suicidal. The argument that NVidia can corner the market for CoWoS rests on assumption that these companies are suicidal.
 

burninatortech4

Senior member
Jan 29, 2014
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Of course they are fake. Actual SKUs aren’t formed yet. Desktop will probably be 9000 while mobile will be 8000 (unless AMD moves DIY to new naming scheme). I actually wanted to point this out a couple days ago, but got distracted.

Not that I am aware of, maybe I missed it? 8xxx for mobile, 9xxx for desktop.
If past naming conventions are anything to go by (AMD hasn't even followed their own convention) - Zen 4 Desktop APU's will be 8000 series and Zen5 Desktop will be 9000 series (unsure about Zen 5 APU's since we're a the end of the avaliable numbers).

For those who are curious, AMD released this slide in 2017 and stopped following it almost as soon as it was published.

 
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Thunder 57

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Aug 19, 2007
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If past naming conventions are anything to go by (AMD hasn't even followed their own convention) - Zen 4 Desktop APU's will be 8000 series and Zen5 Desktop will be 9000 series (unsure about Zen 5 APU's since we're a the end of the avaliable numbers).

For those who are curious, AMD released this slide in 2017 and stopped following it almost as soon as it was published.

View attachment 88631

Probably because it made to much sense.
 

FlameTail

Platinum Member
Dec 15, 2021
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Lol, I was in stitches after reading that.

2000 CB2024 MT score for the 12-core Strix Point APU?

THAT is absurd. That is like 2.5x the MT of 7840HS.

I did not know what kind of fantasies you can have after being high on some good stuff. Well, now I know after reading that.

/s
 

BorisTheBlade82

Senior member
May 1, 2020
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You're all focusing too much on TSM's inhouse 2.5d capacity.
There are myriad other options and all are eager to get a slice of that high margin pie.
I remember reading a couple of weeks ago that CapEx differs immensely WRT advanced packaging. TSMC alone invests more into advanced packaging than all the OSATs together, which could render them obsolete mid-term.
 

adroc_thurston

Platinum Member
Jul 2, 2023
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I remember reading a couple of weeks ago that CapEx differs immensely WRT advanced packaging
Capex is stuff-years-away and we're talking 2.5D capacity here and now.
TSMC alone invests more into advanced packaging than all the OSATs together, which could render them obsolete mid-term.
Man that's great, still a few years from coming online.
 
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TESKATLIPOKA

Platinum Member
May 1, 2020
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View attachment 88648
Lol, I was in stitches after reading that.

2000 CB2024 MT score for the 12-core Strix Point APU?

THAT is absurd. That is like 2.5x the MT of 7840HS.

I did not know what kind of fantasies you can have after being high on some good stuff. Well, now I know after reading that.

/s
Where were you the last week? This was already discussed here.
@Glo. posted It on Saturday. Link
 

moinmoin

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2017
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TSMC alone invests more into advanced packaging than all the OSATs together, which could render them obsolete mid-term.
Two important questions: Cost and throughput? As soon as cost for advanced packaging is significant and throughput is limiting OSATs won't have an issue. Even today packaging is more often deliberately kept simple for cost and yield reasons, I don't think advanced packaging will see such a widespread adoption that it is able to obsolete "lesser" packaging.
 

BorisTheBlade82

Senior member
May 1, 2020
667
1,022
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Two important questions: Cost and throughput? As soon as cost for advanced packaging is significant and throughput is limiting OSATs won't have an issue. Even today packaging is more often deliberately kept simple for cost and yield reasons, I don't think advanced packaging will see such a widespread adoption that it is able to obsolete "lesser" packaging.
I was talking about advanced packaging specifically. While classical packaging will not disappear, it is a low-cost, low-margin business.
Advanced packaging gets more complex and more costly (in terms of CapEx) with each generation. At some point in the not so distant future, OSATs will simply lack the deep pockets needed to keep up with the big guns like TSMC, Samsung and quite likely IFS - creating a similar situation that has already taken place in the foundry business.
 
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