Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[Fjodor2001]

It's April.
Strix is Computex.

So time from mass production leak until launch is only 3 months this time, compared to the usual 6+ months? Why the big difference?

 

[igor_kavinski]

Maybe the leaks were contained better this time. It's possible that it took the fab workers three months to realize that they are fabbing Zen 5, not 4!

 

[Saylick]

So time from mass production leak until launch is only 3 months this time, compared to the usual 6+ months? Why the big difference?

The leak was Kepler agreeing that mass production has started but didn’t say when. What if it was already in production last year?

 

[Fjodor2001]

The leak was Kepler agreeing that mass production has started but didn’t say when. What if it was already in production last year?

Possibly. But it usually leaks out when that starts, and this time we’ve not heard anyhing until now.

 

[clemsyn]

Yeah it's SF4X.

Intel (unironically).

So Intel fills up TSMC fabs, then gets AMD as IFS customer?

 

[Hans Gruber]

So time from mass production leak until launch is only 3 months this time, compared to the usual 6+ months? Why the big difference?

Because Arrow Lake is coming in Sept/Oct/Nov 2024. Intel is moving from 10nm to (20A) 5nm. Incidentally, it looks like the Zen 5 consumer CPU's will be on 4nm which is the enhanced 5nm. So the fab advantage for AMD is gone. The good news for AMD is they should have a 6 month lead over Intel if they release Zen 5 in April. AMD has not said when Zen 5 will move to 3nm. It's safe to say the Zen 5 server chips will probably be the only 3nm processors initially.

Who knows what the Intel silicon will do. They say the clock speeds will be lower on 20A but the IPC will be significantly higher than Raptor Lake. So Zen 5 will have a clock speed advantage over Intel. The efficiency of Zen 5 on 4nm will be interesting. It's been said that current N3 TSMC 3nm silicon is nothing to call home about other than efficiency gains. The N3E TSMC 3nm silicon will probably be significantly better than standard N3. I am basing this on what Apple has said about N3. They were disappointed that 3nm provided no uplift in performance and they used the efficiency gains to offset the lack of performance uplift. Apple needed to increase power draw to gain performance. AMD will not have this problem because Zen 5 is an all new architecture.

Zen 5 on 4nm should be 10-15% trailing 3nm efficiency but performance should be pretty close to the same. It's a wait and see for 20A but Intel said the efficiency gain from 20A to 18A will be only 10%. The silicon real estate will be pretty close to equal between 4nm TSMC and 20A (5nm), which levels the playing field between Intel and AMD.

AMD will have the undisputed performance crown for around 6 months if they launch Zen 5 in April.

 

[mikk]

It's April.
Strix is Computex.

We are still waiting for Hawk Point and you think Strix Point is coming in June? You are super optimistic.

 

[gdansk]

We are still waiting for Hawk Point and you think Strix Point is coming in June? You are super optimistic.

I don’t agree with his optimism on the launch date but I don’t think some rebranded overclocks have any impact on the launch of new products. The new naming scheme makes Hawk look as new as Strix.

 

[adroc_thurston]

So time from mass production leak until launch is only 3 months this time, compared to the usual 6+ months? Why the big difference?

It's always 3mo ramp.

So Intel fills up TSMC fabs, then gets AMD as IFS customer?

If Tomahawks or SM-6's carpet TSM fabs, yeah.

We are still waiting for Hawk Point and you think Strix Point is coming in June? You are super optimistic.

Hawk Point is a refresh for sub-800 buck devices no one in the industry cares about.
It's like saying Zen3 isn't coming in 3 months after 3000XT Matisse refreshes.

 

[jpiniero]

Hawk Point is a refresh for sub-800 buck devices no one in the industry cares about.

Literally that's like the majority of the market.

Doesn't Apple have like 80% market share for over a grand?

 

[mikk]

I don’t agree with his optimism on the launch date but I don’t think some rebranded overclocks have any impact on the launch of new products. The new naming scheme makes Hawk look as new as Strix.

I wouldn't say no impact. They wouldn't need a refresh if Strix was around the corner. It's usually required if there is no successor for some time (usually 1 year). And my point was about AMDs difficulties bringing new mobile CPUs into the market. They are struggling to get a simple refresh into the market, what will happen when they have something really new? Phoenix launched at CES and it really came into the market by June (beside the sponsored showcase model from Asus). He say Strix at Computex which is meaningless. Maybe there is a typical AMD anncouncement at Computex with first availability early 2025.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Doesn't Apple have like 80% market share for over a grand?

No lol.

They wouldn't need a refresh if Strix was around the corner.

Strix is a more expensive part for a more expensive niche of 2024 premium AI PC's.
>$1200 SRP.

And my point was about AMDs difficulties bringing new mobile CPUs into the market.

There is no point.
They can dump whatever, it depends on how well the channel is filled with gunk.

Maybe there is a typical AMD anncouncement at Computex with first availability early 2025.

Whatever, it's not like Intel competes with STX1.

 

[Fjodor2001]

It's always 3mo ramp.

But why the difference from leak of mass production start until launch for Zen5. For Zen4 it was 6 months, not 3. This is assuming leaks about mass production usually happen at around the same time after it starts (since hard to keep secret).

 

[jpiniero]

No lol.

OK, so maybe I'm exaggerating a wee bit. But it is a high amount. Seems a bit absurd to dismiss Hawk Point when AMD just went three years basically selling the same chip with anything newer as not much more than a nice extra.

 

[adroc_thurston]

But why the difference from leak of mass production start until launch for Zen5

Leaks are whatever.

For Zen4 it was 6 months, not 3

No?
I know exactly when AMD sent out PRQ's Si and it definitely wasn't 6mo before launch.

But it is a high amount

No.

Seems a bit absurd to dismiss Hawk Point when AMD just went three years basically selling the same chip with anything newer as not much more than a nice extra.

It's not very relevant for 2024, not at all.
Cheap stuff but AMD has no interest in selling cheap stuff, that's Intel territory.
AMD makes Very Expensive Things That Win, like MI300. Or Turin.

 

[gdansk]

I wouldn't say no impact. They wouldn't need a refresh if Strix was around the corner.

That so? AMD released the 5800U three times even though its replacements were available. Rebrands do not tell anything about new AMD product announcements.

 

[rtxtwt]

The leak was Kepler agreeing that mass production has started but didn’t say when. What if it was already in production last year?

Possibly. But it usually leaks out when that starts, and this time we’ve not heard anyhing until now.

I posted this 3 months ago

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Page 160 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

forums.anandtech.com

few months ago Zen5 DT completion had been already planned to be Oct-Nov, mass production could happen at this timeframe,

but I'm not sure about the release date. My guess is CPU usually being released earlier than APU, GraniteRidge might be earlier than Strixpoint as well. Source is the Greymon(s) and his factory friends and they're my only source, I didn't get any info from others when comes to AMD product. They're still my best reliable source.

 

[Fjodor2001]

I posted this 3 months ago

Page 160 - Discussion - Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

Page 160 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

forums.anandtech.com

but I'm not sure about the release date. My guess is CPU usually being released earlier than APU, GraniteRidge might be earlier than Strixpoint as well. Source is the Greymon(s) and his factory friends and they're my only source, I didn't get any info from others when comes to AMD product. They're still my best reliable source.

What’s the source for the statement that mass production started Oct-Nov 2023? You mentioned the Greymon(s), but do you have any link to that?

 

[rtxtwt]

What’s the source for the statement that mass production started Oct-Nov 2023? You mentioned the Greymon(s), but do you have any link to that?

An admin from chinese forum, but there's so many slang and it's hard to translated by googlish I perfer not to attach links before.
https://tieba.baidu.com/p/8718620228 2023-11-14 <mass production start>
https://tieba.baidu.com/p/8700302663 2023-11-07
https://tieba.baidu.com/p/8605856969 2023-09-18
AFAIK he's the only one who have a contact to factory just like Greymon, who decided to quit twitter due to RDNA3 perf misprediction.

 

[yuri69]

Strix is a more expensive part for a more expensive niche of 2024 premium AI PC's.
>$1200 SRP.

So... for late 2024-2025 AMD got:
* Fire Range - the PREMIUM gaming notebooks with a PREMIUM high power
* Strix Halo - the PREMIUM gaming notebooks with a PREMIUM form factor
* Strix Point - the PREMIUM notebooks with PREMIUM AI gimmicks
---
* the Phoenix rebrand
* Zen 3/2 scarps

 

[adroc_thurston]

So... for late 2024-2025 AMD got:
* Fire Range - the PREMIUM gaming notebooks with a PREMIUM high power
* Strix Halo - the PREMIUM gaming notebooks with a PREMIUM form factor
* Strix Point - the PREMIUM notebooks with PREMIUM AI gimmicks
---
* the Phoenix rebrand
* Zen 3/2 scarps

Yeah and 2025 has RMB for the lowest end iirc.
-halo isn't really gaming laptops per se anyway.

 

[Shivansps]

What are the chances of Strix Halo being delayed to push the production and use of LPCAMM during this 2024? Because i just realised it could be all be connected. Having a super high end laptop with soldered memory could be an issue, and LPCAMM solves that, it would also open the possibility of desktop motherboards, altrought AMD itseft might the one that would not want that.

 

[FlameTail]

We are still waiting for Hawk Point and you think Strix Point is coming in June? You are super optimistic.

Dat's wat the leaked slide says

 

[Fjodor2001]

Dat's wat the leaked slide says [i.e. June 2024]

I guess it depends on how you interpret the timeline bars.

I.e. is start of bar for Strix Point the release date (1 July), or does the fact the that the bar covers the 2024H2 period mean it'll be released sometime within that period?

 

[jpiniero]

What are the chances of Strix Halo being delayed to push the production and use of LPCAMM during this 2024? Because i just realised it could be all be connected. Having a super high end laptop with soldered memory could be an issue, and LPCAMM solves that, it would also open the possibility of desktop motherboards, altrought AMD itseft might the one that would not want that.

I assume Strix Halo will mainly be in MBP wannabe laptops. Solder should be okay.