Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[HurleyBird]

That's been the speculation all along.

I think the only way it's possibly true is if Fire Range isn't reheated Granite Ridge, as Dragon Range is reheated Raphael.

 

[FlameTail]

Neither Intel nor AMD support anything out of JEDEC standard on Mobile. Maybe this will have to chamge in the next product cycle, but current (this year) designs are locked at 8533X.

Ooh that's interesting. Smartphone chip vendors like Qualcomm/Mediatek seem to have no qualms using out-of-spec RAM.

Agreed. But if mass production is starting on 24H2, then premium mobile will be using early next year.

Smartphones yes?

 

[FlameTail]

So the Strix Halo CPU alone ought to be between perhaps $1200-1500. Then the cost of everything else that the laptop consists of must be added on top of that (display, SSD, RAM , keyboard, battery, ...). Adding all of this up means Strix Halo based laptops should be really expensive

But then we can buy a full laptop with RTX 4060/4070 for $1200-$1500. This makes no sense.

 

[Fjodor2001]

But then we can buy a full laptop with RTX 4060/4070 for $1200-$1500. This makes no sense.

So how much do you think the Strix Halo CPU will cost, considering it has 16C Zen5 just like the 9950X at $999, but in addition all the other goodies I mentioned previously (40-50 TOPS NPU + 40 CU RDNA 3.5 + 3x memory bandwidth + advanced packaging)?

Then add the cost of all other parts that a premium laptop constist of on top of that.

 

[StefanR5R]

@Fjodor2001, ODMs don't buy parts in retail.

 

[Fjodor2001]

@Fjodor2001, ODMs don't buy parts in retail.

I know. And I never said so. Neither do stores that buy separate CPUs from AMD and sell to end customers, nor do ODMs that buy CPUs that they put in desktop PCs. Of course they get a lower price from AMD than retail price. So I don’t know what your point is?

But if you insist, then let’s put it like this: How much do you think ODMs will pay for 9950X (assuming retail price is $999), and how much do you think they’ll pay for Strix Halo?

Also, note that ODMs must add their markup to whatever thay pay themselves, in order to make a profit. Same as when stores buy 9950X from AMD, and add their markup to get the $999 retail price. It’s the same with laptops. The ODMs pay less for the CPU of course, but then they have to add markup when selling to stores, and then the stores add their markup on top of that when the laptop finally reaches retail. So in the end it should not matter, assuming total markup percentage for CPUs in laptops and separate CPUs is roughly the same.

 

[Joe NYC]

I asked for the maximum RAM capacity, not RAM speed.

Is it 128 GB? or 256 GB? Or 192 GB perhaps?

The max could be 256 GB.

256 GB on GPU - I wonder if somebody will start using these for some sort of crypto / AI.

 

[StefanR5R]

How much do you think ODMs will pay

I am thinking that this is a thing between AMD and the respective ODM, and that neither of the two go around and talk in public about it a lot. End Of Thought.

 

[Fjodor2001]

I am thinking that this is a thing between AMD and the respective ODM, and that neither of the two go around and talk in public about it a lot. End Of Thought.

Sure, but it’s the same when stores & ODMs buy separate desktop CPUs such as 9950X from AMD too. The price they pay will be lower than retail, and different stores & ODMs will get different price from AMD.

Also, Strix Halo is expected to be included in SFF PCs too. So do you think AMD will sell Strix Halo for a lower price than 9950X to ODMs making such PCs? Effectively that would mean PCs with Strix Halo would be cheaper than those with 9950X (all else equal), despite the former CPU having lots of extra goodies.

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

Ooh that's interesting. Smartphone chip vendors like Qualcomm/Mediatek seem to have no qualms using out-of-spec RAM.

As I said, the next design cycle of Intel and AMD (Panther Lake and Next Point) will either need to support out of spec LPDDR5X (9600 and 10700) or jump straight to LPDDR6. But PC are usually the slowest to adopt new standards.

Smartphones yes?

Yes, sorry. Forgot mobile can also mean laptop/PCHH.

 

[Saylick]

That's an assumption, but probably a safe one. Strix Point is 4+8, so 8+8 makes sense for Halo. 16+0 would be a waste of power and die space. But, bear in mind AMD traditionally sacrifices a lot of stuff on the alter of getting parts ready sooner.

I was under the impression that STH was going to use two 8 core Zen 5 CCDs based on leaks, but if one of those CCDs is Zen 5c should it not be 16 Zen 5c cores since that's what the CCD would be for Turin Dense? Why would AMD spend additional money to tape out another CCD when they can repurpose the server CCD (that is, assuming Zen 5c on STH to begin with, which I doubt)?

 

[Thunder 57]

So how much do you think the Strix Halo CPU will cost, considering it has 16C Zen5 just like the 9950X at $999, but in addition all the other goodies I mentioned previously (40-50 TOPS NPU + 40 CU RDNA 3.5 + 3x memory bandwidth + advanced packaging)?

Then add the cost of all other parts that a premium laptop constist of on top of that.

According to the gospel of adroc. He will be wrong about that just like the April release. Slowly but surely all of his talking points are falling apart.

 

[Joe NYC]

That's an assumption, but probably a safe one. Strix Point is 4+8, so 8+8 makes sense for Halo. 16+0 would be a waste of power and die space. But, bear in mind AMD traditionally sacrifices a lot of stuff on the alter of getting parts ready sooner.

How many separate dies do you think AMD is going to produce for this? Three? That would be nuts.

The 8 core Zen 5 CCD will have to have some modification in order to work with Strix Halo packaging. But hopefully, vast majority of the 8 core CCD will remain unchanged from desktop / server parts.

Now, to get the 2nd CCD, does it make any sense that they would make an 8 core Zen 5c CCD, shared with no other product whatsoever? To save a few mm2 square of silicon. That would be crazy expensive and wasteful.

As opposed to adding a 2nd copy of the same die...

 

[Fjodor2001]

Now, to get the 2nd CCD, does it make any sense that they would make an 8 core Zen 5c CCD, shared with no other product whatsoever? To save a few mm2 square of silicon. That would be crazy expensive and wasteful.

Opens up for 1x8 Zen5 + 2-3x8 Zen5C desktop CPUs as a mid-life kicker in 2025.

 

[FlameTail]

Yeah, Intel Arrow Lake is 8P+16E. 9950X with 16 × Zen5 can compete with that.

But Intel is rumoured to do an Arrow Lake Refresh with 8P+32E.

So how is AMD going to respond to that?

 

[Tarkin77]

Yeah, Intel Arrow Lake is 8P+16E. 9950X with 16 × Zen5 can compete with that.

But Intel is rumoured to do an Arrow Lake Refresh with 8P+32E.

So how is AMD going to respond to that?

Zen 6 Q1/2 2026?

 

[Goop_reformed]

Zen 6 Q1/2 2026?

When will DDR6 be ready ?

 

[StefanR5R]

The 8 core Zen 5 CCD will have to have some modification in order to work with Strix Halo packaging.

…akin to the Zen 4 CCD's readiness for MI300A packaging.

Also, Strix Halo is expected to be included in SFF PCs too.

Expected by whom? To me, it seems as it would be an economically difficult venture to sideline this chip off of premium laptops to a product category such as x86 SFF PCs. (Does a category of "premium SFF PCs" even exist in x86 land? That's the land in which customers who require workstation PCs can actually buy workstation PCs, rather than having to make do with SFF PCs.)

 

[ToTTenTranz]

No way Strix Halo is going to have this LPDDR5X-10700. Mass production only starts in 2024H2, and who knows when it's shipping?

Probably not the first devices but maybe later down the road.

IIRC the first Phoenix device out there was the ROG Ally and that only came with LPDDR5 6400. Only later devices brought LPDDR5X 7500.

 

[HurleyBird]

How many separate dies do you think AMD is going to produce for this? Three? That would be nuts.

The analysis *really* depends on how AMD decides to construct the thing. Strix Point suggests the existence of an 8c Zen5c CCX (assuming its 4+8 config isn't all implemented on one big, shared CCX). It could be that for Strix Halo, there's, for example, an 8 core Zen5c CCX sharing the same die as the memory controller, in addition to a regular 8c Zen5 chiplet which then might not even need any kind of advanced packaging.

It's probably not worth mentioning, but AMD could also theoretically go 0+16.

The 8 core Zen 5 CCD will have to have some modification in order to work with Strix Halo packaging. But hopefully, vast majority of the 8 core CCD will remain unchanged from desktop / server parts.

Mi300 uses unmodified Zen4 CCDs, so not necessarily. Although I'd be a bit surprised if STH went vertical.

Now, to get the 2nd CCD, does it make any sense that they would make an 8 core Zen 5c CCD, shared with no other product whatsoever? To save a few mm2 square of silicon. That would be crazy expensive and wasteful.

As opposed to adding a 2nd copy of the same die...

As mentioned previously, having an 8+8 config doesn't necessarily mean designing another CCD. The reason for c cores would be better idle consumption (also the reason for including a CCX on the IOD, or at the very least utilizing advanced packaging), and better all-core performance within the tight power constraints the chip will be operating in. Those two factors are hugely important for STH to succeed in the Ultrabook market.

 

[HurleyBird]

Expected by whom? To me, it seems as it would be an economically difficult venture to sideline this chip off of premium laptops to a product category such as x86 SFF PCs. (Does a category of "premium SFF PCs" even exist in x86 land? That's the land in which customers who require workstation PCs can actually buy workstation PCs, rather than having to make do with SFF PCs.)

It doesn't exist in large part because there aren't any good components for it.

The main draw for STH in a Mac Studio type form factor is you can include gobs of unified memory for AI workloads.

 

[uzzi38]

Sure, but it’s the same when stores & ODMs buy separate desktop CPUs such as 9950X from AMD too. The price they pay will be lower than retail, and different stores & ODMs will get different price from AMD.

Also, Strix Halo is expected to be included in SFF PCs too. So do you think AMD will sell Strix Halo for a lower price than 9950X to ODMs making such PCs? Effectively that would mean PCs with Strix Halo would be cheaper than those with 9950X (all else equal), despite the former CPU having lots of extra goodies.

Firstly: you're overestimating (by a lot) how much Strix Halo would cost ODMs.

Secondly, why are you assuming ODMs would be sold 9950Xs for MSRP?

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

When will DDR6 be ready ?

Pretty sure DDR6 isn't meant to come to Desktop but to target Servers and DT converts to LPCAMM standards. Regardless, DDR6 comes quite a bit later than LPDDR6. Certainly not in time for the design cycle for Z6.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Slowly but surely all of his talking points are falling apart.

+40% SPECINT performance may still hold up. Yes I know it was @Kepler_L2 who actually posted that specific benchmark prediction/leak, but @adroc_thurston was talking +40% in general.

 

[FlameTail]

LPDDR defeats DDR, and takes the throne:

https://www.reddit.com/r/hardware/comments/1c5yvwz/comment/l00dyn4

The LPCAMM standard opens the door for LPDDR to dominate desktops.