Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[ToTTenTranz]

It means less power going to CPU in GPU-limited scenarios.
Also Kraken is a mainstream part, not a handheld one.

So handhelds are getting lower-power versions of Strix Point? I keep seeing only >25W listings of that chip.

 

[adroc_thurston]

So handhelds are getting lower-power versions of Strix Point? I keep seeing only >25W listings of that chip.

They're getting whatever scraps AMD offers.
Not like I care, meme market for silly reasons.
Yes it's another niche AMD effectively carved by itself using a salvaged design no less and Intel rushed to damage control but still.
Like the 14" gaming laptops. that was funny.

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

I checked the OEMs a couple of weeks back and

24Q1 for Hawk Point seems weird. I just checked Lenovo's website and the ThinkPads are still all Phoenix. Same with other OEMs. Hawk Point seems to be trickling out. (I don't dispute AMD sales numbers from their earnings report. Just saying that I've yet to see Hawk Point versions of the laptops I'd buy available. Perhaps they're going to gamer laptops first.)

Even so, the guidance is appreciated.

Checked HP, ASUS, Dell and Lenovo US

Lenovo has plenty of Ideapads and Yogas with HWK, Dell has Inspirons, ASUS has Vivobook and Zenbook. HP has no HWK offering.

Thinkpads probably weren't refreshed yet. I think only the Thinkpad Z line has been updated so far with Core Ultra processors.

I get the perf/W part, but the AI part is meaningless for the Ryzen Zx parts coming to these devices, as they're probably going to be disabled again anyway.

Sadly NPU will be shoved down our throats due to MS requirements. Even if the Ryzen Z series disable them, that's still wasted space that impact SoC design choices AMD has to make.

Ok I get it, but for ~25W gaming handhelds that are choking on memory bandwidth and power for the iGPU this doesn't make it exactly a big selling point. Phoenix's 8-core CPU performance already looks pretty unbalanced compared to the GPU.

Z1 Extreme is both bandwidth starved and power starved. Kraken setup is much more balanced for Handheld gaming. 8 Z5 Cores + 8 RDNA 3.5 CUs. The RDNA 3.5 will also improve perf/W and v/f curve, alongside geometry and some new instructions. So you can expect an SOC design that works better at low power, with better perf/W and achieving higher clocks on the GPU side.

Edit: Also improved memory controller with support for higher LPDDR5X speeds.

This is just speculation, but both KRK 444 and 242 should be reaching 3+ GHz on the iGPU.

 

[Joe NYC]

AMD being able to slot into Commercial designs is a really good move as that's one area very Intel dominated and that has good revenue potential.

What I am curious about is when Microsoft announces their big AI move in ~June, the only way to participate in it in commercial desktop space is with AMD Phoenix APU.

Lenovo already announced theirs. We will see if we will see more.

In another statement from Lisa during the CC, she mentioned several vendors who will be offering Ryzen Pro 8000 (without specifying whether it is desktop or laptop), HP was among them, but no Dell. So, there may still be a chance that HP announces commercial desktop, but maybe not Dell. 2 of the 3 would not be so bad.

Intel Low-End next year will be a interesting thing to see. According to Bionic:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1747980520938778639

Problem is, from the few reviews so far, MTL-U = RPL-U. Even in battery life (Against RPL-U), it's hit or miss depending on the OEM implementation. Here, Bionic claims that the move to Intel 3 will yield 10% PPW improvement over Intel 4 Compute Tile. But is that enough for OEMs to choose ARL-U over the cheaper RPL-U?

I believe Intel will have serious trouble at mainstream next year with competition from Kraken. <$800 will be composed of ARL-U and RPL-U. While >$800 will be RPL-H, with LNL and ARL-H slotting in >$999 designs.

KRK will outperform Intel mainstream offerings next year with a cleaner SKU line-up that's cheaper to ramp and be offered in high-volume.

Yup, cost wise, Raptor may be on par with Kraken, but completely outclassed in performance and features.

ARL, barely matching KRK performance and features, it will be more expensive to produce and will likely face capacity constraints.

My prediction is that in next 1 year, in server CPU (excluding GPU) AMD share increase from ~30% -> ~50%
In client, in same period, from ~15% -> ~30%

Which would, in practical terms, be the end of Intel monopoly.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Yup, cost wise, Raptor may be on par with Kraken

Cheaper.

ARL, barely matching KRK performance and features, it will be more expensive to produce and will likely face capacity constraints.

Well it doesn't.
Kinda the issue.

 

[Joe NYC]

What's the selling point of Kraken over Phoenix, specifically Hawk Point?

RDNA 3.5 vs. RDNA 3
Zen 5 vs. Zen 4

Both are material upgrades.

 

[adroc_thurston]

RDNA 3.5 vs. RDNA 3
Zen 5 vs. Zen 4

Both are meaningful upgrades.

XDNA2 versus XDNA1 and so on and so forth.

 

[Joe NYC]

I checked the OEMs a couple of weeks back and

24Q1 for Hawk Point seems weird. I just checked Lenovo's website and the ThinkPads are still all Phoenix. Same with other OEMs. Hawk Point seems to be trickling out. (I don't dispute AMD sales numbers from their earnings report. Just saying that I've yet to see Hawk Point versions of the laptops I'd buy available. Perhaps they're going to gamer laptops first.)

Even so, the guidance is appreciated.

Those quarter I mentioned is when they start(ed) shipping. Doesn't mean they completely eclipsed prior generation. That takes year(s).

 

[adroc_thurston]

That takes year(s).

quarters

 

[Abwx]

I think you mean Strix Point? Hawk Point is just Phoenix refresh.

Of course, you understood since i did talk of those 16 CUs, not much more than Phoenix but there s the power and thermal limitations, and perhaps that RDNA 3.5 will also give an uplift.

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

There's probably some OEMs who will try. But 16 CU + 12 Cores feels wholly inappropriate for a Handheld device.

Then again people are using these while connected at wall charger all the time and full blasting at 45W. To the point that the Handheld aspect basically lost it's meaning

 

[Markfw]

Somewhere July.
Your guess is as good as mine.
I'm a laptop guy, not anything DIY DT.

Thanks. I need either very fast and a lot of cores, or a massive amount of cores, and both need to run avx-512. Right now as we speak, I have 4 9554's and a 9654 and 7 7950x running avx-512 in primegrid. I don't even turn on my dual 7763 milans or my dual 7V12 Rome's for this, as they do crap, not worth the electricity compared to Genoa/7950x.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Thanks. I need either very fast and a lot of cores, or a massive amount of cares, and both need to run avx-512. Right now as we speak, I have 4 9554's and a 9654 and 7 7950x running avx-512 in primegrid. I don't even turn on my dual 7763 milans or my dual 7V12 Rome's for this, as they do crap, not worth the electricity compared to Genoa/7950x.

Oh you're gonna be amazed

 

[Markfw]

Oh you're gonna be amazed

In 9950x or Turins ?? I will have both the first month they are available. Probably QS's for Turin on ebay, as I can't afford retail for those. My 9654 Genoa on ebay is retail and it was $4315. That about my max.

 

[adroc_thurston]

In 9950x or Turins ?? I will have both the first month they are available. Probably QS's for Turin on ebay, as I can't afford retail for those. My 9654 Genoa on ebay is retail and it was $4315. That about my max.

Both.

 

[Joe NYC]

XDNA2 versus XDNA1 and so on and so forth.

Forgot about that one.

 

[gdansk]

Forgot about that one.

We try not to think about it.
It is partially responsible for killing an actually useful feature.

 

[Markfw]

Both.

Since I show off the power of AMD server CPU's you should sell me a Turin QS for a good price. If you can, PM me. Or a 9950x QS

 

[Joe NYC]

We try not to think about it.
It is partially responsible for killing an actually useful feature.

Well, that's water under the bridge (even though the CPU has not yet been released).

We will see how it performs in Strix Halo, and the maybe we will see it in Zen 6.

If Strix Halo performs well, and also has good power consumption / battery life, that will be a proof of concept of chiplets in mobile, and then, with chiplets in the mobile (potentially in Zen 6), we may get MALL in more mainstream chips.

 

[adroc_thurston]

If Strix Halo performs well, and also has good power consumption / battery life, that will be a proof of concept of chiplets in mobile, and then, with chiplets in the mobile (potentially in Zen 6), we may get MALL in more mainstream chips

It's not an if lol, Medusa is disagg as a frozen design choice.

 

[Joe NYC]

It's not an if lol, Medusa is disagg as a frozen design choice.

Just speculating here, it would seem reasonable that following segments move to Strix Halo style disaggregation:
- all desktops
- Strix Halo successor

So, the question is if Strix Point successor is also going to follow the pattern and further Kraken successor.

It seems the original plan was for Zen 5 gen of notebook chips to be disaggregated, but only Strix Halo made it.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Just speculating here, it would seem reasonable that following segments move to Strix Halo style disaggregation:
- all desktops
- Strix Halo successor

So, the question is if Strix Point successor is also going to follow the pattern and further Kraken successor

Yeah it's all one thing.
That's the idea.

It seems the original plan was for Zen 5 gen of notebook chips to be disaggregated, but only Strix Halo made it

Not seems, that was the OG definition.

 

[lolek86]

What about ram speed support, will sweet spot lie kinda little just above current zen 4 6000-6200MT or whole new tiers beyond 8000MT will start to scale and make sense? In market for new am5 ram kit, don't know if should wait or just go for whatever currently suits my zen4 needs. Any hints adroc ?

 

[adroc_thurston]

What about ram speed support

The same.

 

[Joe NYC]

Yeah it's all one thing.
That's the idea.

Not seems, that was the OG definition.

That should finally bring more modularity / re-useability to client PCs, and hopefully, faster release cycles. And maybe even a greater range of SKUs.

Desktop CPUs seem the easiest to conceive, as the closest replica of Strix Halo, just with a different SoC.

I am not sure how the rest of the client line-up will end up being partitioned, but there are multitude of possibilities.