And now specifically on AMD, Q1 is clearly rock bottom, every market declining partially offset by MI300 ramping.
Every quarter afterwards should be sustained growth from the Q1 baseline, H2 has AMD pulling an enormous number of levers with the only resistance being H200, which is restricted by the very limited HBM3e bin supply that won't fully ramp until 2025.
Zen 5 in general is a colossal win that should force a big upgrade cycle, even in the face of DCGPU demand.
RDNA4 should help inject new life into gaming rev as it faces no direct price competition until 2025. PS5 Pro should launch late 2024 so is really a 2025 story.
Embedded should recover gradually so that is nice for the bottom line.
MI300 should have significant growth rate per quarter, potentially above 50% that should lead to a lot of momentum across the whole company.
I can see AMD breaking the 10B/quarter mark by Q42024 if things go well.
But, there is that b word. To be honest, a bubble is inevitable, but the really scary scenario is a global recession.
Good thing is, a complete cratering in demand won't hurt AMD nearly as much as NV or especially Intel.
AMD has similar revenue diversity to Intel, they have far less collateral from a demand crash than either and can reboot to healthy capacity with the least risk.
NV has enough cash to weather the storm, but that capacity they have acquired might take years to get back to good utilisation, and all that inventory/prepaid capacity they would need to write down.
Intel would be absolutely doomed though, they have no leadership products and their fabs would be dead weight.
All in all, once the current fad has died down, AMD will be well positioned for the next fad, NV won't have first mover advantage this time.
NV can choose to maintain share and tank margins with price cuts and MDF, or maintain margins at all costs. They won't get to have both now, those days are finished.
Every quarter afterwards should be sustained growth from the Q1 baseline, H2 has AMD pulling an enormous number of levers with the only resistance being H200, which is restricted by the very limited HBM3e bin supply that won't fully ramp until 2025.
Zen 5 in general is a colossal win that should force a big upgrade cycle, even in the face of DCGPU demand.
RDNA4 should help inject new life into gaming rev as it faces no direct price competition until 2025. PS5 Pro should launch late 2024 so is really a 2025 story.
Embedded should recover gradually so that is nice for the bottom line.
MI300 should have significant growth rate per quarter, potentially above 50% that should lead to a lot of momentum across the whole company.
I can see AMD breaking the 10B/quarter mark by Q42024 if things go well.
But, there is that b word. To be honest, a bubble is inevitable, but the really scary scenario is a global recession.
Good thing is, a complete cratering in demand won't hurt AMD nearly as much as NV or especially Intel.
AMD has similar revenue diversity to Intel, they have far less collateral from a demand crash than either and can reboot to healthy capacity with the least risk.
NV has enough cash to weather the storm, but that capacity they have acquired might take years to get back to good utilisation, and all that inventory/prepaid capacity they would need to write down.
Intel would be absolutely doomed though, they have no leadership products and their fabs would be dead weight.
All in all, once the current fad has died down, AMD will be well positioned for the next fad, NV won't have first mover advantage this time.
NV can choose to maintain share and tank margins with price cuts and MDF, or maintain margins at all costs. They won't get to have both now, those days are finished.
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