Discussion ITT: We predict how low the price floor on 120GB/128GB SSD drops

[Hellhammer]

P.S. Regarding my calculations, I did notice looking back at Anandtech articles that 25% was the number used for free space (and this was based on the total capacity of the NAND, not the advertised capacity or capacity left after formating). So that means for either a 60GB or 64GB SSD, 48 GB would be available if 25% spare area (ie, 16GB) was desired . Likewise, for either a 120GB or 128GB SSD, 96GB would be available if 25% spare area (ie, 32GB) was desired.

Correct. The main reason of doing that is to provide a data point at which all SSDs are comparable since the default OP varies quite a bit.

 

[cbn]

The ebay seller (xtrememicro) also has KingFast K6 F6 32GB 2.5" for $15.54 shipped and KingFast K6 64GB 2.5" for $25.69 shipped.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/SSD-32GB-Ki...182795?hash=item3f618716cb:g:JokAAOSw8aNXGJ-J

Now $23.39 for the 32GB.

Why the steep price rise? Are we starting to see the precipice of inflation? Or is that the MO of the China sellers; introduce with a low price, and then keep raising it?

There is another seller on ebay offering that drive for $21.19 free shipping (from Hong Kong).

But yes, that and the price you found are both good increases from the previous $15.54 shipped sale we saw earlier.

Not sure what was going on? Maybe the earlier price was an inventory reduction sale?

Now they're both $20.99 and $20.89. Weird.

Current price from Xtrememicro is $18.88 shipped, but I also see listings from other sellers at $17.99 shipped and $16.49 (or best offer) shipped.

So it looks like there is some natural variation occurring.

I wonder how this could trend over time?

Does a future drive with a newer dram-less controller (on a smaller proces tech) allow the price floor to drop even lower? Or maybe the added LDPC error checking on newer 40nm controllers like Phison S11 and Silicon Motion SM2258XT cancels this out some?

 

[cbn]

Maxiotek MK8115 and MK8215 (both DRAM-less controllers) confirmed to have write booster (aka "SLC cache"):

This is significant because 1.) the Silicon Motion SM2258XT controller mentioned in previous posts does not support SLC cache at this time and 2.) future low capacity 3D TLC SSDs could really benefit from the write boost due their relative lack of NAND parallelism.

 

[cbn]

Prices for 120GB SSDs are on the rise!

According to PC part picker the cheapest 120GB at this time is $41 shipped. (There is a drive listed at $38.74 plus shipping from Outlet PC, but when I click on the actual link it is $48)

http://pcpartpicker.com/products/internal-hard-drive/#S=120000

 

[SnooSnoo]

Needless to say, my Hectron X1 is on it's way out
Waiting for a reply from the seller, but it only had a 60 day return policy so...
And Hectron doesent seem to exist anymore, it seems to be called Drevo today, no mention if they have any affiliation other than the same sticker and model name.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Sorry to hear that. Though probably unsurprising that a cheap Chinese-made SSD would fail so quickly.


Looks like you were doing power-failure testing with it? (Only 36 hours power-on time, but 154 start-stop count?)

 

[SnooSnoo]

Sorry to hear that. Though probably unsurprising that a cheap Chinese-made SSD would fail so quickly.


Looks like you were doing power-failure testing with it? (Only 36 hours power-on time, but 154 start-stop count?)

It would certainly look like it
But no. I have a toddler that, last summer, would wreck havoc while feeding unless she had her attention drawn by something else than food. So for every meal it was on/off for the poor laptop.
She is an agent of chaos with her toys nowdays. XD

 

[StrangerGuy]

Prices for 120GB SSDs are on the rise!

According to PC part picker the cheapest 120GB at this time is $41 shipped. (There is a drive listed at $38.74 plus shipping from Outlet PC, but when I click on the actual link it is $48)

http://pcpartpicker.com/products/internal-hard-drive/#S=120000

DDR4 prices has been steadily rising too. Ah, should have bought 16/32GB for future use when they were still <$100 for 16GB.

 

[SnooSnoo]

Finaly got my replacement SSD back. The Hectron support was realy good, excellent communication. Resolved my RMA realy fast. I mean, 40 days, I dont get stuff replaced localy that fast. They even offered a full refund, but since the warranty is 3 years, and support is good, I decided to get a replacement drive.

Benchmark

edit. Something went wrong with embeding the above image...

 

[PliotronX]

It would certainly look like it
But no. I have a toddler that, last summer, would wreck havoc while feeding unless she had her attention drawn by something else than food. So for every meal it was on/off for the poor laptop.
She is an agent of chaos with her toys nowdays. XD

Tell me about it! I have to switch the power supply off on my tower. Dang kids!

 

[PingSpike]

DDR4 prices has been steadily rising too. Ah, should have bought 16/32GB for future use when they were still <$100 for 16GB.

Yeah, I had decided to just wait for Zen figuring DDR4 would probably be even cheaper then and I actually didn't have any other reason to switch. Plus if Zen sucked (if it does suck?) I wasn't going to feel any real pressure to upgrade. Now it seems like I should have squirreled some away.

 

[SnooSnoo]

Well, the replacement drive died after accumulating a whopping 1 hour of use. Completley dead. I've had enough of this little experiment.

 

[cbn]

In this thread we have discussed SSDs (and in some cases eMMC) with 120GB (or lower) capacity, but then I got to thinking about how usb 3.0 drive (at 120GB or lower capacity) might factor into the future as well.

Some usages:

1. Primary Storage for Windows or Linux laptops with broken hard drives.
2. Primary Storage for Windows Laptops with working hard drives. (Hard drive then becomes secondary storage device)
3. Cache for Windows laptops with working hard drives via ReadyBoost.

NOTE: The form factor for mobile usage really needs to be "FIT" size (examples below), so the controller needs to be very space and heat efficient.

P.S. Right now the only native usb 3.0 flash controller I can find capable of 3D NAND is Phison PS2251-09 (It also does support Static (ie, Global leveling) wear leveling). However, I expect Silicon Motion should eventually have a controller with this capability as well. Hopefully any future usb 3.0 controllers will also have "good" 4K write as this is usually very weak in this category of device.

 

[Glaring_Mistake]

Hopefully any future usb 3.0 controllers will also have "good" 4K write as this is usually very weak in this category of device.

That depends what you consider good but I think that even in larger sized USB drives they've kind of moved away from having decent random speeds to instead focus on sequential speeds.
For example the Lexar Jumpdrive P-series used to have pretty good 4k writes but later they improved the sequential speeds while random speeds suffered.
Take that with a pinch of salt however since I've not been fully up to date when it comes to fast USB-drives since getting an external SSD.
In any case, I'm not sure how likely it is that we're going to see tiny drives with high random speeds any time soon.

 

[cbn]

Patriot Burst 120GB $26.99 free shipping:

https://www.amazon.com/Patriot-Memory-Burst-120GB-Internal/dp/B07574MTR4

This one is Phison S11 with 3D TLC NAND (see post #116, it appears to be using planar TLC)

(So finally under $30, but much later than my initial prediction)

One thing to note is that according to this review the 120GB capacity version of Patriot Burst is pretty slow on Sequential Read (only 338 MB/s). In contrast the $17.99 free shipping Patriot flare 60GB (Phison S11, MLC) reads @ ~450 MB/s IIRC.

 

[cbn]

Here is the english translation of the Patriot Burst 120GB review by ALL SSD. (Images below found here)

Surprise....Surprise...It has eight NAND packages:

So this drive must be using planar TLC NAND (128Gb per die).

 

[StrangerGuy]

I'm very confident we will see ~$15 for 120GB by end of the year at least, since 2TB now already hit ~$200 albeit with discounts.

 

[cbn]

Two more SSDs to watch:

Team L5 lite-3D (SM2258XT and 3D TLC)
PNY CS900 (Phison S11 and 3D TLC)

With that being mentioned, I do wonder if we will eventually see dram-less 3D QLC SSDs in 120GB capacity? (With current 3D QLC die capacities this would mean only one die though......unless we see smaller capacity 3D QLC come out? Maybe smaller capacity dies (3D QLC) from Yangtze Memory? Or maybe one die from Yangtze has enough performance to be effective at low capacity?)

http://www.ymtc.com/index.php?s=/cms/172.html

“At present, the world’s highest 3D NAND I/O speed is targeting 1.4Gbps while the majority of the industry is offering NAND I/O at 1.0Gbps or below. With our XtackingTM technology, it is possible for NAND I/O speed to reach up to 3.0Gbps, similar to I/O speed of DRAM DDR4. This is going to be a game changer in the NAND industry,” said Simon Yang, CEO at YMTC.

 

[hojnikb]

I'm very confident we will see ~$15 for 120GB by end of the year at least, since 2TB now already hit ~$200 albeit with discounts.

No we won't (excluding clearance sales and such). There are just too many fixed costs (pcb, controller, passive components, case) so even if flash cost is dirt cheap, it still costs money to produce everything else. ~20$ is about the lowest you can go on a semi decent ssd.

 

[hojnikb]

Two more SSDs to watch:

Team L5 lite-3D (SM2258XT and 3D TLC)
PNY CS900 (Phison S11 and 3D TLC)

With that being mentioned, I do wonder if we will eventually see dram-less 3D QLC SSDs in 120GB capacity? (With current 3D QLC die capacities this would mean only one die though......unless we see smaller capacity 3D QLC come out? Maybe smaller capacity dies (3D QLC) from Yangtze Memory? Or maybe one die from Yangtze has enough performance to be effective at low capacity?)

http://www.ymtc.com/index.php?s=/cms/172.html

We might see sd cards and flash drives using 128GB capacity, but not SSDs. I'm surprised manufacturers bothered with TLC to be honest.

 

[hojnikb]

https://www.aliexpress.com/item/Sol...483b-4a91-a027-a7e55665c4bd&priceBeautifyAB=0

this seems pretty cheap for a 120GB

 

[hojnikb]

Most of the people buy 500GB-1TB SSD now.

not what this thread is about.

 

[cbn]

https://www.aliexpress.com/item/Sol...483b-4a91-a027-a7e55665c4bd&priceBeautifyAB=0

this seems pretty cheap for a 120GB

$22.62 free shipping (for 2246EN and TLC)......yeah that is pretty cheap.

 

[Wall Street]

I am typing this on an IBM x41 (from 2005) which has been given a little bit of an extended life last week by replacing the 1.8" mechanical drive with a new Kingston UV500 mSATA SSD I got for $40 which is in an IDE PATA to mSATA adaptor (another $11 from China). For the prices SSDs are now it is an impulse upgrade. This drive saturates the poor 100 MB/s PATA interface without breaking a sweat. It fits Lubuntu just fine (with 112 of 120 GB free space).

 

[cbn]

This one has Phison S10 (a very good controller which also uses DRAM buffer) and 3D TLC for $23.99 FS:

https://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16820301368