Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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itsmydamnation

Platinum Member
Feb 6, 2011
2,804
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Pre-launch BD dividied the forum crowd to two groups:
* the hype train ppl - "all new architecture", "8 cores", "SMT killed by cluster", "FMA4!"
* the IPC fail ppl - "2 ALUs", "0.5 FPU", "16k L1D lmao"

On the other hand, Zen 5 has been hyped to the sky since that weird remark in that interview of AMD's Mr. Clark.

It's odd to see such hype, since you know. Zen 1-4 are definitely very successful designs but... AMD got definitely not a stellar track record of making "brand new things".

K8 was reiterated several times. K9 got cancelled completely. K10 mutated itself after many many years to Bulldozer. Initial 10h was late and plagued with low clocks and bugs. 45nm Bulldozer failed completely. 32nm Bulldozer almost brought the company down. 16h's followup did not make it. That ARM server almost did not make it. Skybridge/K12 got canned.
Why do you pick something from the last 8 years..... two full new uarch , Zen2 having far more Tock in its "Tick" then intel ever did back in its ticktock days. Then there is Zen4 with what ~25% performance over Zen3.

Then you have Lisa's words just days ago, so your saying she is lying / miss representing product in financial calls ? Or you think AMD's biggest customers are to stupid to understand how minor Zen5 uplift is and just want to do the equivalent of set a pile of money on fire?
 

Mahboi

Senior member
Apr 4, 2024
522
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There are folk out there that have posted large question marks on NVidia's current valuation;

His timing might be somewhat off, but I think the gist is right. Inference will increasingly be done on edge/client hardware. But I'm just a layperson not an analyst.

His timing isn't off.
It's very much in line with what we're observing: the 12 months have passed and pretty much everyone can see MI300 getting to market without hitches.
In the next 6 months, Nvidia will be balanced by AMD. Then it's all about how much AMD wants to invest in training. Blackwell is a severe advantage IMO, but AMD could easily ship MI400s all next year just to do inference and still rake in bucks with great ease.
 
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aigomorla

CPU, Cases&Cooling Mod PC Gaming Mod Elite Member
Super Moderator
Sep 28, 2005
20,853
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OK ENOUGH IS ENOUGH.

1. POINTLESS PICTURES WITHOUT COMMENTARY ARE ABSOLUTELY NOT ALLOWED. EVEN IF ITS A BULLDOZER WITHOUT SAYING WHY YOU BROUGHT OUT A PICTURE OF A REAL BULLDOZER IN REFERENCE TO AMD BULLDOZER.
ITS POINTLESS AND WERE GETTING TIRED OF POINTLESS PICTURES CLUTTERING A THREAD.

2. SEEMS LIKE YOU GUYS REALLY WANT 2X POINTS WEEKEND, SO IF WE SEE ANY MORE POINTLESS NON TECHNICAL PICTURES , AND ONES WITHOUT COMMENTARY ESPECIALLY, YOU WILL GET DOUBLE THE POINTS.

3. STAY ON TOPIC... STAY ON TOPIC... AND AGAIN STAY ON TOPIC.... DO NOT DERAIL THE THREAD FOR PEOPLE LOOKING FOR REAL INFORMATION.


STAY ON TOPIC, LIMIT SARCASM TO A MINIMUM, AND ABSOLUTELY NO SARCASTIC PICTURES ARE ALLOWED UNTIL AFTER AMD LAUNCH.

MODERATOR AIGOMORLA.
 

Hans Gruber

Platinum Member
Dec 23, 2006
2,153
1,099
136

There will be a clock regression if they run into a thermal wall by widening the core. I expect RPL-S level TDPs for high end GNR.
The clock regression was supposed to happen because Zen 5 was originally supposed to be on 3nm (N3). TSMC (N3) silicon is more energy efficient but sucks at clock speed compared to N5/N4. A bulkier wider core and more bandwidth is not going to affect the max CPU clock speed. AMD will not be on 3nm until a Zen 5 refresh.

For efficiency sake, it would have been nice to see Zen 5 on 3nm.
 

DisEnchantment

Golden Member
Mar 3, 2017
1,623
5,894
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Pre-launch BD dividied the forum crowd to two groups:
* the hype train ppl - "all new architecture", "8 cores", "SMT killed by cluster", "FMA4!"
* the IPC fail ppl - "2 ALUs", "0.5 FPU", "16k L1D lmao"

On the other hand, Zen 5 has been hyped to the sky since that weird remark in that interview of AMD's Mr. Clark.

It's odd to see such hype, since you know. Zen 1-4 are definitely very successful designs but... AMD got definitely not a stellar track record of making "brand new things".

K8 was reiterated several times. K9 got cancelled completely. K10 mutated itself after many many years to Bulldozer. Initial 10h was late and plagued with low clocks and bugs. 45nm Bulldozer failed completely. 32nm Bulldozer almost brought the company down. 16h's followup did not make it. That ARM server almost did not make it. Skybridge/K12 got canned.
It is evident that you are far more knowledgeable than to say Zen5 could possibly end up with the same fate as the AMD projects of old.
But I would suppose you are getting weary of all the back and forth hype and anti hype, the sarcasms and mud slings. You are not alone.
There is a group who enjoys this kind of discussion but there is another group who don't and cannot participate in any discussion anymore on the topic of Zen 5.

Maybe we should create a different thread to discuss only the Architectural/technical aspects of this upcoming product with limited speculation ( no hype, no market share discussion, no memes) based on publicly available evidences (patches, GB results, Manuals, official statements)
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,845
310
126
Maybe we should create a different thread to discuss only the Architectural/technical aspects of this upcoming product with limited speculation ( no hype, no market share discussion, no memes) based on publicly available evidences (patches, GB results, Manuals, official statements)
Problem is there is very little of this available.

AMD is keeping everything silent until official announcement it seems. So people get restless and turn to speculation instead. Given the situation, perhaps that's fine, if it's made clear what is speculation vs known fact.
 

Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
May 16, 2002
25,641
14,630
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Problem is there is very little of this available.

AMD is keeping everything silent until official announcement it seems. So people get restless and turn to speculation instead. Given the situation, perhaps that's fine, if it's made clear what is speculation vs known fact.
Yes, this is supposed to be speculation. But there is reasonable speculation and WILD speculation. The latter is frowned on. see aigomorla's moderator post. At this point, and from the leaks we have seen, any mention of bulldozer seems to be WILD speculation.

adrock_thurston seems to have believable leaks, but his posts seem more ignored as of late.
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,845
310
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adrock_thurston seems to have believable leaks, but his posts seem more ignored as of late.
Well, as long as it's made clear what is fact vs speculation. If everything is always stated as 100% absolute certain fact regardless, then you cannot tell what is fact vs speculation.

For cases where it is not fact, some indication on whether the info is just likely, guesstimated, within a range rather than a specific number, or similar would be good.
 

PJVol

Senior member
May 25, 2020
561
473
106
Of course, it's just a bigger and better Zen in every way. Even L1D latency didn't regress despite 50% size increase.
Do you think there's any ground behind this quote from the MLID's “source” some month ago?
The original lowball goal for Zen 5's IPC uplift was 20%. And, we thought that would be easy if we put in the work...but it wasn't. We ran into power issues, the shift to 4nm hurt clocks, and at one point we were concerned it might only get efficiency & IPC increases in the low double digits. In fact, we very briefly considered downgrading Strix to Zen 4 to ensure it launched on time.
However, from what I've heard recently, Zen 5 finally has decent optimism behind it.
And btw, do you know what the revision of the final silicon is?
 

Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
1,675
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Well, as long as it's made clear what is fact vs speculation. If everything is always stated as 100% absolute certain fact regardless, then you cannot tell what is fact vs speculation.

For cases where it is not fact, some indication on whether the info is just likely, guesstimated, within a range rather than a specific number, or similar would be good.

It is all speculation until products launch.

Adroc may state his claims in a very matter of fact way but since we are not privy to the data he is using for those claims it remains speculation.

But there is reasonable speculation and WILD speculation. The latter is frowned on. see aigomorla's moderator post. At this

Until products launch it is all wild speculation. There is insufficient information from which to draw a reasonable conclusion because even with what we know of the architectural changes there is zero way to map that into performance.

Historically 10-20% uplifts have been more common than bigger ones but past performance is not a prediction of future performance. The BD to Zen uplift was very high, as was the K6 to Athlon and so was P4 to Core 2 and that is just in the x86 space. Apple have seen some huge uplifts so we know it can happen.
 

Tuna-Fish

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2011
1,366
1,595
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Inference will increasingly be done on edge/client hardware.

I'm honestly more than a bit skeptical of this. Because of batching, centralized inference is much more efficient and cost-effective than inference on the edge. The total amount of hardware needed to do a lot of inference is substantially (at least 10x, probably a lot more) less when the hardware is in datacenters than when it's in client devices. Centralized inference hardware can also run on grid power, and not batteries. This trades against privacy requirements, but I think in the long run most people will cope given that the centralized inference can use much larger, more powerful models and therefore work better.


The point about inference hardware being open to competitors in the datacenter is true.
 
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AMDK11

Senior member
Jul 15, 2019
291
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Historically 10-20% uplifts have been more common than bigger ones but past performance is not a prediction of future performance. The BD to Zen uplift was very high, as was the K6 to Athlon and so was P4 to Core 2 and that is just in the x86 space. Apple have seen some huge uplifts so we know it can happen.

Athlon (K7) gave a big boost to IPC only because K6 was quite average compared to the competition (PII), and considering the FP load, very weak. The Athlon K7 with a much larger number of transistors - 22 million (without L2) barely overtook the Pentium III (9.5 million transistors without L2). Especially considering the Socket version, where both microarchitectures achieved the same results.

The situation is similar in the case of Bulldozer vs Zen1 as Excavator in ST had a very weak IPC, which was not a big challenge for Zen1 (2017), which in turn was behind Skylake (uarch) from 2015.

With this in mind, in the past there has not been a huge average increase in IPC compared to the previous generation if the previous generation was already a very high bar.

Zen 4 is not as weak a product as BD and K6.
 

Goop_reformed

Member
Sep 23, 2023
179
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Problem is there is very little of this available.

AMD is keeping everything silent until official announcement it seems. So people get restless and turn to speculation instead. Given the situation, perhaps that's fine, if it's made clear what is speculation vs known fact.
Turin customers have been briefed ages ago, and soon infos will be tricked down.

Complete silence is actually good, ass it always has been. Even with RDNA 3, it can be inferred from this post: https://www.angstronomics.com/p/amds-rdna-3-graphics that performance is not the top priority. This is not new, as few years back, Raja actually hinted Vega 64 being competitive in terms of price/performance and not outright performance.

Still, I'd consider Zen 5 a disappointment if it doesn't have > 25% uplift in st
 

Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
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Athlon (K7) gave a big boost to IPC only because K6 was quite average compared to the competition (PII), and considering the FP load, very weak. The Athlon K7 with a much larger number of transistors - 22 million (without L2) barely overtook the Pentium III (9.5 million transistors without L2). Especially considering the Socket version, where both microarchitectures achieved the same results.

The situation is similar in the case of Bulldozer vs Zen1 as Excavator in ST had a very weak IPC, which was not a big challenge for Zen1 (2017), which in turn was behind Skylake (uarch) from 2015.

With this in mind, in the past there has not been a huge average increase in IPC compared to the previous generation if the previous generation was already a very high bar.

Zen 4 is not as weak a product as BD and K6.

I don't think Zen 4 is a high bar, it is high relative to Intel but they stagnated for 10 years.
 

AMDK11

Senior member
Jul 15, 2019
291
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You claim that Intel has been stagnant for 10 years, and yet AMD has not managed to significantly overtake uarch. Zen1 barely caught up with Broadwell (Haswell with minor tweaks). If it were that easy, they would have crushed Zen1 by now.

Since 2017, AMD and Intel have been going together like a couple in a dance (Intel sometimes loses its steps a bit).

Are you saying this will suddenly change? I believe that Zen4 is so good that a 40% IPC jump from generation to generation is impossible, considering the project implementation time and the possibilities of the transistor packing process per mm2.
 
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Goop_reformed

Member
Sep 23, 2023
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You claim that Intel has been stagnant for 10 years, and yet AMD has not managed to significantly overtake uarch. Zen1 barely caught up with Broadwell (Haswell with minor tweaks). If it were that easy, they would have crushed Zen1 by now.

Since 2017, AMD and Intel have been going together like a couple in a dance (Intel sometimes loses its steps a bit).

Are you saying this will suddenly change? I believe that Zen4 is so good that a 40% IPC jump from generation to generation is impossible, considering the project implementation time and the possibilities of the transistor packing process per mm2.
Intel has the nodes advantage, the man power, the industry connection, the endless pocket. What they managed to do in 10 years with all that is a disgrace. Look at what their competitors have manage to achieve with a fraction of that.

If this is not trolling I don't know what is.
 

itsmydamnation

Platinum Member
Feb 6, 2011
2,804
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You claim that Intel has been stagnant for 10 years, and yet AMD has not managed to significantly overtake uarch. Zen1 barely caught up with Broadwell (Haswell with minor tweaks). If it were that easy, they would have crushed Zen1 by now.

Since 2017, AMD and Intel have been going together like a couple in a dance (Intel sometimes loses its steps a bit).

Are you saying this will suddenly change? I believe that Zen4 is so good that a 40% IPC jump from generation to generation is impossible, considering the project implementation time and the possibilities of the transistor packing process per mm2.
Amd has far more dry powder in terms of architectural resource consumption and they are about to spend it , amd kept up with Intel while doing it with a sizablely smaller core.
 

AMDK11

Senior member
Jul 15, 2019
291
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I wanted to emphasize that in the past, even if there was a very large IPC jump, it was only against the background of the poor solution of the previous generation. Find another example if there was an exception.
 
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