Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

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rainy

Senior member
Jul 17, 2013
506
425
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To achieve an average IPC gain of 30%, the core would need to be expanded (transistors) by approximately 50-60%.
I don't know from where you've got those numbers but you're wrong.
Just because Intel big cores are bloated, it doesn't mean that AMD must doing the same.

Btw, Zen 3 was made on the same process as Zen 2 and was able to deliver almost 20 percent higher IPC with just minor increase of transistors (about 10 percent or similar).
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,842
305
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Zen5 mass production starting in 2024Q3:


Yeah, I know it's WTF*tech. And they say the source could have been misinterpreted it as that Zen5C mass production starting then, and not Zen5. The source is this Chinese site:


Google translated to English here:

 

naukkis

Senior member
Jun 5, 2002
722
610
136
Anything not bog standard ISA doesn't work.

So everybody should just use 6502 ISA? Arm updates their ISA yearly cadency, x86 players add instructions whenever they publish new hardware design - should you consider both ARM and x86 failures? Yeah I prefer risc-V too but it isn't final yet, and probably will newer be as some additions are necessarily on every ISA going forward.
 

FlameTail

Platinum Member
Dec 15, 2021
2,356
1,276
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Zen5 mass production starting in 2024Q3:


Yeah, I know it's WTF*tech. And they say the source could have been misinterpreted it as that Zen5C mass production starting then, and not Zen5. The source is this Chinese site:


Google translated to English here:

That would mean Zen 5 comes 2 years after Zen 4?
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,842
305
126
That would mean Zen 5 comes 2 years after Zen 4?
Yeah, I guess. So AMD can still claim "launch" in 2024H2 (more specifically 2024Q4), but actual availability in 2025Q1.

Couple that with 10-15% IPC increase vs Zen4 as MLID claimed. And clock regression and $999 for 7950X successor as adroc claims.

Looks like we're back to pre-Zen, Intel-style sandbagging territory in that case for AMD.

Have I derailed the Zen5 hype train now? 🤣
 
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adroc_thurston

Platinum Member
Jul 2, 2023
2,501
3,650
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Yeah, I guess. So AMD can still claim "launch" in 2024H2 (more specifically 2024Q4), but actual availability in 2025Q1.

Couple that with 10-15% IPC increase vs Zen4 as MLID claimed. And clock regression and $999 for 7950X successor as adroc claims.

Looks like we're back to pre-Zen, Intel-style sandbagging territory in that case for AMD.

Have I derailed the Zen5 hype train now? 🤣
no you're still shadowboxing stuff that doesn't exist.
trying to find gotchas that don't exist.
You know that ISA don't have to change a bit but as execution hardware changes there's a need for recompilation to extract hardware full performance?
Yea and?
The differences aren't really that big overall.
You can run znver2 binary on zen4 with good-good perf just fine.
Because the core ISA isn't the rat's nest of schizoid concepts from 1990s.
 
Reactions: Goop_reformed

Tuna-Fish

Golden Member
Mar 4, 2011
1,366
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So everybody should just use 6502 ISA? Arm updates their ISA yearly cadency, x86 players add instructions whenever they publish new hardware design - should you consider both ARM and x86 failures? Yeah I prefer risc-V too but it isn't final yet, and probably will newer be as some additions are necessarily on every ISA going forward.

Nobody is going to change the entire programming model, which is what clustering would require. Also, the kind of "weave independent execution paths together" that you propose really would not help as much as you think, because in practice execution time of those independent paths are going to be wildly variable, because of unpredictable memory latency. As in, as soon as you do anything more complicated than compute Pi, you should expect fully independent code paths to diverge by thousands of instructions, not tens. And at that point, one of them is going to just lag enough that everything else stalls on it.

You know that ISA don't have to change a bit but as execution hardware changes there's a need for recompilation to extract hardware full performance?

Proverbially, no-one actually does that. In the entire industry a few weirdoes recompile code, and everyone else runs the same binaries they have for two decades. Only slightly exaggerating.
 

Timmah!

Golden Member
Jul 24, 2010
1,430
660
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Zen5 mass production starting in 2024Q3:


Yeah, I know it's WTF*tech. And they say the source could have been misinterpreted it as that Zen5C mass production starting then, and not Zen5. The source is this Chinese site:


Google translated to English here:

I vaguely remember reading about 2 months ago it was already underway, lol. I guess it felt so good, they gonna start it again.
 

MrTeal

Diamond Member
Dec 7, 2003
3,578
1,725
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Yeah, I guess. So AMD can still claim "launch" in 2024H2 (more specifically 2024Q4), but actual availability in 2025Q1.

Couple that with 10-15% IPC increase vs Zen4 as MLID claimed. And clock regression and $999 for 7950X successor as adroc claims.

Looks like we're back to pre-Zen, Intel-style sandbagging territory in that case for AMD.

Have I derailed the Zen5 hype train now? 🤣
Nope, MLID just presented it in a confusing way. Zen5 is 10-15% IPC (Improvement Per CPU). The first release is going to be the 6C12T R5 9600X, and it'll be +15% MT vs the outgoing 7950X. The rest of the lineup will scale from there.
 

Goop_reformed

Member
Sep 23, 2023
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From where did you get that info?
Your previous post was super disingenuous. The same slide that says 10-15% ipc for zen 5 also states lower ipc increase for zen 2,3,4 than reality. Also gr is 4nm not 3nm. Furthermore money.udn.com is not a tech website as mentioned earlier.

I feel like you and 2 other posters only try to downplay zen 5 whenever possible.
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,842
305
126
Your previous post was super disingenuous. The same slide that says 10-15% ipc for zen 5 also states lower ipc increase for zen 2,3,4 than reality. Also gr is 4nm not 3nm. Furthermore money.udn.com is not a tech website as mentioned earlier.

I feel like you and 2 other posters only try to downplay zen 5 whenever possible.
From where do you know that the stated IPC increase for Zen 2-4 in the MLID slide is lower than in reality? Does it even say how it was measured?

Also, from where do we know GR is 4 nm and not 3 nm? I’ve seen both mentioned in this thread, and don’t know if AMD has made any official statement regarding that.

That said, I think I made clear that the wccftech article is questionable. Uncertain, like most other info speculated about Zen5 so far. Very little is known about Zen5 for sure, AMD provides nearly no official info, and there are no certain big leaks.
 

Goop_reformed

Member
Sep 23, 2023
179
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From where do you know that the stated IPC increase for Zen 2-4 in the MLID slide is lower than in reality? Does it even say how it was measured?

Also, from where do we know GR is 4 nm and not 3 nm? I’ve seen both mentioned in this thread, and don’t know if AMD has made any official statement regarding that.

That said, I think I made clear that the wccftech article is questionable. Uncertain, like most other info speculated about Zen5 so far. Very little is known about Zen5 for sure, AMD provides nearly no official info, and there are no certain big leaks.

There's a difference between ipc shown in slides and actual ipc achieved. If mild has the slides in this
, then it's more than likely he has the projection slides for zen 4, I've seen it and it says 9%. Common sense also says the same thing when amd has a history of under promise and over deliver. Mild himself even said zen 5 will deliver more than zen 2 to zen 3, not sure about the exact words but that's what I remember.

Common sense also says granite ridge is 4nm, why on earth would anyone sell high cost product for lower margin?

All your posts are like this, low trolling efforts. Zen 5 is clearly in a very good shape, otherwise the news would spread like wildfire. Kindly stop whatever it is you're trying to do because it clearly backfire, and frankly somewhat is worthless.
 
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H433x0n

Senior member
Mar 15, 2023
926
1,013
96
There's a difference between ipc shown in slides and actual ipc achieved. If mild has the slides in this
, then it's more than likely he has the projection slides for zen 4, I've seen it and it says 9%. Common sense also says the same thing when amd has a history of under promise and over deliver. Mild himself even said zen 5 will deliver more than zen 2 to zen 3, not sure about the exact words but that's what I remember.

Common sense also says granite ridge is 4nm, why on earth would anyone sell high cost product for lower margin?

All your posts are like this, low trolling efforts. Zen 5 is clearly in a very good shape, otherwise the news would spread like wildfire. Kindly stop whatever it is you're trying to do because it clearly backfire, and frankly somewhat is worthless.
The slides in his video match Zen 3 & Zen 4 IPC precisely (19% & 13% respectively).
 

Timorous

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2008
1,673
2,954
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Yeah, I guess. So AMD can still claim "launch" in 2024H2 (more specifically 2024Q4), but actual availability in 2025Q1.

Couple that with 10-15% IPC increase vs Zen4 as MLID claimed. And clock regression and $999 for 7950X successor as adroc claims.

Looks like we're back to pre-Zen, Intel-style sandbagging territory in that case for AMD.

Have I derailed the Zen5 hype train now? 🤣

To derail the hype train you would need to put things together in a believable way and you have not.

I can imagine Zen 5 CCDs have been in mass production for a while as claimed. I can imagine the latest claim is regarding Zen 5c CCDs entering mass production.

AMD also have form for downplaying their performance gains, even in announcement slides like below.



If you compare the 5950X to the 7600X In Single Thread performance then you see a ~22% uplift in uplift in CB R23, a ~13% uplift in CPU-Z and an ~18% uplift in CB R20.

So is it possible that the 10-15% IPC uplift in the MLID leaked slide is the low end of uplift spectrum? AMD have form for doing exactly that, especially when the slide says 10 - 15% + IPC increase. AMDs > and + had a heck of a lot of headroom in Zen 4 and if Zen 5 was internally benched as being very very good there is no reason to think that would change for Zen 5.

Given the lack of leaked bad news at this stage I have a feeling that the + in the 10 - 15% + IPC uplift bullet point is going to be the star of the show.

For me the performance uplift as a geomean means little, I want to see how it performs in games. Given how much Intel got out of going wider in that particular use case it seems like there is potential for a good uplift with Zen 5 as well, especially when you throw v-cache on top a few months later.
 

StefanR5R

Elite Member
Dec 10, 2016
5,591
8,013
136
A reminder:
If the slide with the "10-15%+ IPC increase" bullet point was from AMD, a suggested way to read it (in absence of foot notes/ end notes) would be as ten to fifteen or more percent increase of SPECrate® 2017 Integer n-copies throughput of a 128-cores Turin vs. a 96-cores Genoa, per core, iso-clock, with n = 256 and 192 respectively on single-socket systems, edit: or 256 512 and 192 384 respectively on dual-socket systems; not sure how AMD tends to do that.
(source: #4,133)
 
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