Discussion 2024 USA Election Thread: Biden and Dems might have problems in 2024 swing states - The Gaza Issue

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Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,892
5,750
136
You guys all harp on 2022 because you know disaster is around the corner.

But at least you can say "I told you so about 2022" until then!

Historically speaking, when have you ever been right about disaster being around the corner?
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,217
12,347
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My going theory at this point is the people who may be somewhat unhappy with Biden but dislike Trump aren't going to spend 15 minutes answering polls so we are ending up with samples that are somewhat more pro-Trump than the actual universe of voters. With Trump increasingly out there and having had a lot of primaries this could shift and Trump dislikers could become Trump haters who actually answer. Given the nearly across the board Trump underperformance in the primaries vs the polling virtually everywhere this seems plausible. Anyway polling this far out, especially state polling, is quite noisy and should probably just be viewed via averages and trends. Even then I wouldn't be taking it to the bank.
Polling favors people who respond to polls, and fervent people want their voice heard.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,243
48,426
136
250meters so it doesn't all burn up on the way down?
Well the Tunguska Event was supposedly caused by a meteor about 150 feet wide and that flattened nearly 1,000 square miles. Soooooo.... probably something considerably smaller than that.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,153
6,969
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You mean the "Get over yourself" comment? I saw Steven A Smith say "How did that work out in 2016"
Funny how people claim to want politicians to be blunt and honest with them, but then when those politicians are honest, the populous screams "not like that" and "likeability" (the latter seems to come out especially when a woman says those honest things).
 

GodisanAtheist

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2006
6,933
7,347
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Some people that are perhaps too online don't understand power and the idea of being a "gettable" and reliable voter. If you threaten to withhold your vote (and are a generally unreliable voter) over everything, eventually people stop listening to you, because those positions can never be satisfied. But also, if you want to enact change, you need sympathetic ears in power. Helping to get the better candidate to place second in our system (ie, first loser) only ensures that your positions get locked out, and for a time, you can only scream from the outside as some "morally pure" activist.


"Don't vote shame me."

Some people think that voting is some big moral act. They need to get over themselves and learn a little bit about getting and keeping power.

 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,421
28,837
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Happy to admit when I'm wrong, and I was definitely wrong back then.

But this is my gut feeling/prediction moving forward: it will be close but Trump wins in November. Just like 2016 and 2020, it will be a relatively small number of votes across various swing states that make the difference. The actual states, I'm not sure, but you know the usual suspects.

I think Dems flip the house but GOP narrowly takes the Senate. WV, Ohio and Montana Senate spots guaranteed to go red as is, so that's probably enough right there to seal the deal.
I would think the chance of Trump winning while Democrats take the House when it is extremely gerrymandered against them is highly unlikely.

Funny how people claim to want politicians to be blunt and honest with them, but then when those politicians are honest, the populous screams "not like that" and "likeability" (the latter seems to come out especially when a woman says those honest things).
People want Republicans to be blunt. They want Democrats to be the opposite of whatever the Democrats are currently doing. Then when a Democrat does what they claim they want Democrats to do, they just start claiming they want the opposite of that.
 

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
11,157
2,251
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Okay that’s good news. At least their overinflated ego didn’t win out unlike RFK Jr and Jill Stein

And with Biden’s talk with Netanyahu since the aid workers killed, he pressed that Israel has to make a change or the US will do something.
I sincerely hope Biden means it this time. What was the news earlier this week, "your purchase order for F15s and MK-84s has been approved"? No wonder people are angry when our actions don't match our words.
 

raildogg

Lifer
Aug 24, 2004
12,884
569
126
America foreign policy to Israel remains same, Biden or Trump, Republican or Democrat. This means Israeli influence on America is too much and this says something. Look at the donors, etc.

Republican support for Israel is 99.8% while Democrat support is like 99.6%. Not much difference. Both sides support Israel because, once again, Israel influence.

This Republican guy is symbolizing American stance on Israel very well. He is wearing an Israeli military uniform (IDF) to a conference and yet American politicians censured (publicly shamed) Rashida Tlaib. So wearing a foreign country's uniform is OK but saying something minor is very bad and must be punished. Very shameful but that is how America is.


I hope American people realize there is not much choice and foreign policy will remain very much the same regardless Biden or Trump. Neither party cares about Palestinian lives. We will not even mention the religious Christian groups in America and how much they will make sure next president obeys Israel. So you can clearly see very biased US decision making here, Republican or Democrat.
 
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pmv

Lifer
May 30, 2008
13,128
8,058
136
Thoughts on how 2024 ends?


At least you are sure to get an election in 2024. Ours could be delayed till January 2025. No idea when it will be, all we can do is wait (while the Tories loot the country).

Given how reluctant Sunak appears to actually allow us a say it wouldn't surprise me at all if he postpones it right up to the last possible moment, i.e. January next year.

I mean, it's too late to call one for May, and he won't call one for November because it will clash with the US one, and he won't call one for late December because of Christmas. So either he'll go for it in the summer (but probably will only do that if his own party tries to dump him, as he's already threatened that, like some sort of political suicide bomber), or October (to try and suppress the student vote), or early December, or late January.

Worst case scenario is he's hoping a pretext will arise to allow him to postpone it beyond the legal last date? (Like an escalation of the Ukraine war). The weird way he laughs whenever anyone asks him when the election will be, makes me wonder if he's thinking "you think I'm going to give you an election? You poor sap"
 
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Pens1566

Lifer
Oct 11, 2005
11,658
8,156
136
Well the Tunguska Event was supposedly caused by a meteor about 150 feet wide and that flattened nearly 1,000 square miles. Soooooo.... probably something considerably smaller than that.

Something about eggs and an omelet ...
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,243
48,426
136
Read the article I linked recently.
The person who wrote that article is either very dumb or very naive. It fed your diaper filling narrative though so you didn’t think twice about it.

The most problematic scenario for example, where Biden wins the presidency but Democrats lose the house, assumes that if Johnson tries a legislative coup in response Biden will just be like ‘them’s the breaks, you got me!’ and surrender the presidency to a coup, knowing full well this means the end of democracy.
 
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