Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes Discussion Threads

Tigerick · Aug 22, 2022

As Hot Chips 34 starting this week, Intel will unveil technical information of upcoming Meteor Lake (MTL) and Arrow Lake (ARL), new generation platform after Raptor Lake. Both MTL and ARL represent new direction which Intel will move to multiple chiplets and combine as one SoC platform.

MTL also represents new compute tile that based on Intel 4 process which is based on EUV lithography, a first from Intel. Intel expects to ship MTL mobile SoC in 2023.

ARL will come after MTL so Intel should be shipping it in 2024, that is what Intel roadmap is telling us. ARL compute tile will be manufactured by Intel 20A process, a first from Intel to use GAA transistors called RibbonFET.

Comparison of upcoming Intel's U-series CPU: Core Ultra 100U, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

Model	Code-Name	Date	TDP	Node	Tiles	Main Tile	CPU	LP E-Core	LLC	GPU	Xe-cores
Core Ultra 100U	Meteor Lake	Q4 2023	15 - 57 W	Intel 4 + N5 + N6	4	tCPU	2P + 8E	2	12 MB	Intel Graphics	4
?	Lunar Lake	Q4 2024	17 - 30 W	N3B + N6	2	CPU + GPU & IMC	4P + 4E	0	8 MB	Arc	8
?	Panther Lake	Q1 2026 ?	?	Intel 18A + N3E	3	CPU + MC	4P + 8E	4	?	Arc	12

Comparison of die size of Each Tile of Meteor Lake, Arrow Lake, Lunar Lake and Panther Lake

	Meteor Lake	Arrow Lake (20A)	Arrow Lake (N3B)	Arrow Lake Refresh (N3B)	Lunar Lake	Panther Lake
Platform	Mobile H/U Only	Desktop Only	Desktop & Mobile H&HX	Desktop Only	Mobile U Only	Mobile H
Process Node	Intel 4	Intel 20A	TSMC N3B	TSMC N3B	TSMC N3B	Intel 18A
Date	Q4 2023	Q1 2025 ?	Desktop-Q4-2024 H&HX-Q1-2025	Q4 2025 ?	Q4 2024	Q1 2026 ?
Full Die	6P + 8P	6P + 8E ?	8P + 16E	8P + 32E	4P + 4E	4P + 8E
LLC	24 MB	24 MB ?	36 MB ?	?	8 MB	?
tCPU	66.48
tGPU	44.45
SoC	96.77
IOE	44.45
Total	252.15

Intel Core Ultra 100 - Meteor Lake

As mentioned by Tomshardware, TSMC will manufacture the I/O, SoC, and GPU tiles. That means Intel will manufacture only the CPU and Foveros tiles. (Notably, Intel calls the I/O tile an 'I/O Expander,' hence the IOE moniker.)

Hitman928 · Mar 25, 2024

SiliconFly said:
Just interpreting Pat's own words. He said they're "all in" with their new stuff. So, if it bonks, they're "all out". Just being logical!

The quotes I've seen have been that he has gone all in on 18a, not the design side products. Obviously what Intel puts on the process themselves is important, but the IFS side is what he's talking about and where they are spending tons of money to bring to market quickly and build out capacity for outside customers.

Geddagod · Mar 25, 2024

ondma said:
Raptor Lake technically had "more cores", but they were E cores. I dont think that had much if anything to do with gaming. Hopefully, though, Intel (and the game developers) will eventually find a way to utilize the E cores. Otherwise, Intel will be in serious trouble if cpu demands in future games with ever more powerful GPUs exceed what 8 big cores can deliver.

Ye, the extra cores were helpful for that extra MT oomph tho. Clocks helped both productivity and gaming.

SiliconFly said:
ARL is their mainstream client. We need to see how and where LNL fits in.

It's TDP is what, 17-30 watts? That's deff mainstream enough, esp considering how popular thin and light laptops are now.

SiliconFly said:
This diagram is missing tape-out.

It's missing a lot of stuff

dullard said:
Could that mean that 3 nm was not as difficult as expected? Could it mean that 3 nm has higher yield than originally expected? Could it mean that the 3 nm foundry is available to use? Could it mean that the 3 nm foundry is underutilized so you don't have to fight other companies for limited space? I could see many ways that the context of that phrase could apply to 3 nm.

TBH I think he is just talking about trees

SiliconFly · Mar 25, 2024

reggie_fils_aime said:
...He's definitely better on the negative side of the rumor mill.

He's not better on any side of any mill. The only thing is, I think he actually has a legitimate source inside amd who feeds him some interesting titbits from time to time. And most importantly, he lacks the engineering chops to properly interpret the data leaks thereby causing even more confusion.

SiliconFly · Mar 25, 2024

Just a thought. Intel may not use Core Ultra branding for Arrow Lake parts. Fox example, they may simply refer to ARL i9s like 15900K or 15900H, etc. The Core Ultra series branding might be confined to Low Power Lunar Lake parts alone. Just a guess, but it kinda adds up.

uzzi38 · Mar 25, 2024

SiliconFly said:
Just a thought. Intel may not use Core Ultra branding for Arrow Lake parts. Fox example, they may simply refer to ARL i9s like 15900K or 15900H, etc. The Core Ultra series branding might be confined to Low Power Lunar Lake parts alone. Just a guess, but it kinda adds up.

Arrow Lake is getting the Ultra name. Non-Ultra is Raptor Lake (again).

igor_kavinski · Mar 25, 2024

If Intel's stuff is Ultra, what does that make AMD's stuff? Unobtanium?

SiliconFly · Mar 25, 2024

igor_kavinski said:
If Intel's stuff is Ultra, what does that make AMD's stuff? Unobtanium?

It's got to be Vibranium. Adamantium is already taken by Intel.

Hulk · Mar 25, 2024

Okay, 3 months out from MTL's "launch" and I'm not seeing them in any quantity.

Paper launch?

gdansk · Mar 25, 2024

I don't think so, they're out there.
And have been under $700 even.

Hitman928 · Mar 25, 2024

Hulk said:
Okay, 3 months out from MTL's "launch" and I'm not seeing them in any quantity.

Paper launch?

RPL-R is still the main volume driver this generation for Intel. MTL is (relatively) low volume.

SiliconFly · Mar 26, 2024

Hitman928 said:
...MTL is (relatively) low volume.

MTL launch didn't go well for reasons unknown. Still not enough products on shelves.

Hulk said:
Paper launch?

Worse. Looks like a failed launch. They couldn't hit volume & the reasons aren't known either.

Joe NYC · Mar 26, 2024

SiliconFly said:
MTL launch didn't go well for reasons unknown. Still not enough products on shelves.

Worse. Looks like a failed launch. They couldn't hit volume & the reasons aren't known either.

One theory is that Intel just does not have the EUV machines to be able to shift the volume to Intel 4 or better.

Which is why Raptor Lake will likely be the highest volume product well into 2025.

FlameTail · Mar 26, 2024

This chart says it all.

Joe NYC · Mar 26, 2024

FlameTail said:
View attachment 95889
This chart says it all.

Yup, the volume of MTL can't exceed the capacity. And that capacity (Intel 3/4) will further need to be divided between MTL and the new server chips, in H2 2024

SiliconFly · Mar 26, 2024

Joe NYC said:
One theory is that Intel just does not have the EUV machines to be able to shift the volume to Intel 4 or better.

Which is why Raptor Lake will likely be the highest volume product well into 2025.

Possible. But they actually have enough EUV machines now. But they may have gone to Intel 3/20A/18A for reasons beyond.

With MTL, first issue is volume. But there are also other possibilities like yield issues or foveros issues. Only god knows. Time for them to get their act together.

I said this before and people had trouble believing. I'll try again. MTL is their first step in the right direction. But not a very massive issue if MTL doesn't deliver (like whats happening now).

But ARL is their final step in the right direction. Directly goes against Zen5. If LNC goofs up or if ARL end up with serious issues like MTL, they'll lose all respect, mind share and everything. It'll clearly mark the beginning of their demise. Both LNC & ARL are do or die for Intel.

Will Intel deliver good on time? Sadly, I'm not sure anymore.

tamz_msc · Mar 26, 2024

SiliconFly said:
MTL launch didn't go well for reasons unknown. Still not enough products on shelves.

Worse. Looks like a failed launch. They couldn't hit volume & the reasons aren't known either.

Over 200+ configs in EU alone.

Notebooks mit CPU-Familie Intel: Core Ultra 5/Core Ultra 7/Core Ultra 9 Preisvergleich Geizhals EU

Preisvergleich und Bewertungen für Notebooks mit CPU-Familie Intel: Core Ultra 5/Core Ultra 7/Core Ultra 9

geizhals.eu

It's even available in a third world country like mine.

Hardly a paper launch, unlike the competition in the Windows notebook space.

mikk · Mar 26, 2024

I'm not even sure if Raptor Lake or Alder Lake mobile ramped up faster after 3 months. It's always a slow start and then over time more and more devices emerge in the market.

reggie_fils_aime · Mar 26, 2024

I wonder how much performance stagnation is going to affect sales at big box retailers - there's already a handful of open box options for Core 7 non-ultra laptops at my local best buy, and I wasn't even aware they had started to sell those yet. 2P+8E is enough to be considered a 7-class processor from intel, now, and that feels like very weak tea in comparison to a similarly branded AMD laptop.

dullard · Mar 26, 2024

FlameTail said:
This chart says it all.

Yes, that chart says a lot. But it doesn't say it all. Fab 9, to be used for mass production of Foveros just opened Jan 24, 2024. https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/intel-opens-fab-9-new-mexico.html#gs.6yq9e7
Even if they had the wafer capacity (shown in the graph), Intel didn't have the packaging capacity to fully ramp up Meteor Lake.

But now, even the Microsoft Surface laptops have been announced with Meteor Lake chips (including the 165H and 165U which haven't been commonly seen): https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/surface/business

FlameTail · Mar 26, 2024

dullard said:
But now, even the Microsoft Surface laptops have been announced with Meteor Lake chips (including the 165H which hasn't been commonly seen): https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/surface/business

Interesting fact about those Microsoft Surfaces that were announced on March 21st, is that they are exclusively for businesses (although consumers can buy them too, if they really want to).

The consumer versions will be announced at an event in May 20th, and according to reports they will have only ARM versions. No Intel.

SiliconFly · Mar 26, 2024

SiliconFly said:
...But there are also other possibilities like yield issues or foveros issues...

dullard said:
...Intel didn't have the packaging capacity to fully ramp up Meteor Lake.

Even I think foveros might be the limiting factor. Fab 9 will ramp up very fast very soon. But the real MTL question is, is packaging the only limiting factor or are there other issues as well like Intel 4 volume or yield issues, etc.

Khato · Mar 26, 2024

It's both amusing and sad that Meteor Lake is being claimed a paper launch/limited capacity when it's been available for purchase since launch. Granted model availability was limited for the first 1-2 months, but so what?

Remind me how many months it was after 'launch' before Phoenix was even reviewed, much less available for purchase? That's a great example of a paper launch.

SiliconFly · Mar 26, 2024

Khato said:
Remind me how many months it was after 'launch' before Phoenix was even reviewed, much less available for purchase? That's a great example of a paper launch.

That part is true.

Khato said:
It's both amusing and sad that Meteor Lake is being claimed a paper launch/limited capacity when it's been available for purchase since launch. Granted model availability was limited for the first 1-2 months, but so what?

But the same applies to MTL laptops too. I see way too many 13th gen laptops still, some 12th gen too, some amd laptops and very few MTL laptops. Not many different models from different vendors available yet for purchase this late in the cycle. Thats tragic.

SiliconFly · Mar 26, 2024

mikk said:
I'm not even sure if Raptor Lake or Alder Lake mobile ramped up faster after 3 months. It's always a slow start and then over time more and more devices emerge in the market.

After Tiger Lake got trounced by Zen 3 (a bit in performance and a massive PPW margin), Intel came out with Alder Lake (around Zen 3D timeframe). They did manage to saturate the market following the infamous "rear-view" comment. Their plan was to outship the competition and they managed to flood the market with Alder Lake chips; at that time the freshly rechristened Intel 7 was running at full steam. Same with Raptor Lake. It's availability was good after launch.

But not so with MTL. Since both ADL & RPL were based on an extremely mature node, volume wasn't an issue. But MTL is based on a newer node (4) and a newer packaging technology (Foveros). Either they're having trouble with the node or the packaging. Or they're having trouble with both. They aren't saying.

Edit: An interesting update on older Intel nodes...

Intel 32nm - poor yield 1st year - good volume 2nd year
Intel 22nm - good volume 1st year itself
Intel 14nm - poor yield first two years - medium volume 2nd year - good volume 3rd year and so on
Intel 10nm - poor yield 1st year - low volume 2nd year - good volume 3rd year and so on till today
Intel 4nm - Tbh, what to expect?

Thats why I'm saying MTL/Intel 4 have yield issue (some), volume issue (lots) and Foveros packaging issue (big time) cos Fab 9 still needs a few more months for full ramp up. Thats why we aren't seeing enough different MTL laptops from different vendors around the world as we speak.

Khato · Mar 26, 2024

SiliconFly said:
But the same applies to MTL laptops too. I see way too many 13th gen laptops still, some 12th gen too, some amd laptops and very few MTL laptops. Not many different models from different vendors available yet for purchase this late in the cycle. Thats tragic.

By that definition every processor launch is a paper launch. Previous generations always linger for years. Nothing has changed here compared to historical norms.

How many different models do you want? Lenovo has refreshed most of their premium consumer lines and is refreshing their Thinkpad line to MTL along the same annual cadence as always. Dell looks to have released their full line up of Precision, Latitude, and XPS with MTL, along with high end Inspiron and some Alienware. HP has released MTL across their Spectre and Envy lineups, doesn't look like they've started their business line deployment yet. Acer, Asus, MSI, Samsung all look to have refreshed their higher tier offerings on MTL. Sorry, but I don't see any lack of model availability here. Unless the complaint is that MTL isn't available in low to mid tier designs? Which is certainly true, but that's just a case of flawed expectations.

Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes Discussion Threads

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