Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[Fjodor2001]

I kinda miss the days when CPU manufacturers released teasers with bits and pieces of info on the next upcoming CPU at tech events leading up to the release. Then there was more solid tech stuff to discuss and not just speculation.

Nowadays the companies stay almost silent all the way up until the release announcement.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Talking about desktop parts, you claimed April, did not happen. You claimed 8xxx naming, its gonna be 9xxx. Wrong on both occasions - but yeah, there was no alternative. Except it was, as we can see.

April was launch, not product on shelves, please.
Just don't.

When out of arguments, just inform other party they dont get it. Cool. Nice talking with you.

No, you really don't get it.
The point isn't the product but the technology involved

 

[Mahboi]

DIY PC is not a real market and the sooner you accept it, the merrier.

Are there actual numbers somewhere of the size of DIY?
More or less than 10% of the total of PCs sold?

 

[Timmah!]

April was launch, not product on shelves, please.

No launch happened.

Just don't.

Why? Does it upset you to be called on your own BS? No need to be upset.

No, you really don't get it.
The point isn't the product but the technology involved

Its still made out of silicon, its not some revolutionary technology. Does not warrant your hype, and my Zen4/4090 desktop is still gonna be superior choice for gaming or my line of work using GPU, than any Strix Halo laptop with its AMD integrated GPU.
Finally, people are buying products. Not your abstract sense of technological progress they apparently represent.

 

[carancho]

DIY PC is not a real market and the sooner you accept it, the merrier.

How longer do you believe it will remain a market if CPUs increasingly need on-package memory?

 

[StefanR5R]

[Strix Halo is] the only Z5 part that's actually interesting from raw technology POV.

To others, the Zen 5 frontend innovations, and more of the microarchitectural changes, might be peripherally interesting from the technology POV as well. (I wonder whether there will be any in-depth reporting on it at all though.)

Will Strix Halo indeed offer technological surprises, even after we have seen MI300A and Meteor Lake?

 

[gdansk]

(I wonder whether there will be any in-depth reporting on it at all though.)

C&C? And AMD usually does talk about changes at HotChips and/or ISSCC. Though with its timing maybe it'll be a year after launch.

 

[Abwx]

Are there actual numbers somewhere of the size of DIY?
More or less than 10% of the total of PCs sold?

Dunno for the size of the market, as an indication german retailer Mindfactory sell about 5000 CPUs per week, that s an average of 250k CPUs/year from a single retailer in a single country, and it s about sure that AMD make as much money, if not more, out of these 250k CPUs than from 1M delivered to the Lenovo and other HP, so that s still a consistent and very profitable market that is important to uplift margins.

 

[adroc_thurston]

No launch happened.

Yeah, supposed to be the announcement.

Why? Does it upset you to be called on your own BS? No need to be upset.

No one wins against me.

Its still made out of silicon, its not some revolutionary technology. Does not warrant your hype, and my Zen4/4090 desktop is still gonna be superior choice for gaming or my line of work using GPU, than any Strix Halo laptop with its AMD integrated GPU.

Oh man DIY PC copium.
Swelte.

Will Strix Halo indeed offer technological surprises, even after we have seen MI300A and Meteor Lake?

Yea.

 

[Mopetar]

It's the requirement for the Windows 12 Sticker, not for the Windows 12 software.

So if I don't have the NPU the sticker won't stick to the case? Can someone please explain the technical details of how the NPU causes the sticker to adhere?

Sometimes it's so damn refreshing to play with non-nerd friends and they're like "I'm FPS agnostic so I don't care, I just wanna enjoy the game".

Oh, you know some unsaved? If you would be amenable, I have a pamphlet that I would like you to pass on to them.

 

[Joe NYC]

You definitely are and it's funny.
-halo is the coolest and the only arguably new part out of the entire Zen5 lineup for reasons you'll find out circa CES'25.
Good luck.

Is Kraken also CES 2025?

 

[adroc_thurston]

Is Kraken also CES 2025?

yea

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

Waiting until CES 25 for Kraken will be excruciating. Hopefully these are available at volume worldwide right out of the gate. Either 444 or 243 is fine for me.

 

[Joe NYC]

You were insisting on those, leaving no room for alternative. Did not exactly make it look like anything can be different, than you said it would be. But it was. And now you were wrong, out of blue they dont matter anymore.

This may be related (or not) but AMD secured the #1 keynote of Computex.

Giving AMD opportunity to open Computex with a bang, rather than a whimper (if Zen 5 has already been announced)

 

[adroc_thurston]

This may be related (or not) but AMD secured the #1 keynote of Computex.

yes even a toddler can guess why

 

[jpiniero]

yes even a toddler can guess why

Ryzen AI
Radeon AI
Epyc AI

 

[Mahboi]

Dunno for the size of the market, as an indication german retailer Mindfactory sell about 5000 CPUs per week, that s an average of 250k CPUs/year from a single retailer in a single country, and it s about sure that AMD make as much money, if not more, out of these 250k CPUs than from 1M delivered to the Lenovo and other HP, so that s still a consistent and very profitable market that is important to uplift margins.

Well Germany is a bit of a special breed as "countries" go, since Austria, Sweden/Norway/Denmark/Finland, and probably Czechia and Poland has quite a few things delivered straight from them.

But even if you assume it represents a solid third of the European market, big questions remain:
- what of the american market (assuming same volume per population)
- and what of the asian markets

American market I can ballpark a guess from Euro market, but Asia I have no clue.

Ryzen AI
Radeon AI
Epyc AI

This entire industry is filled with Mariachis.
AY AY AY AY

(also no it's Zen 5 obviously and thank God that's not all AI)

 

[Abwx]

Ryzen AI
Radeon AI
Epyc AI

Presented by A(I)MD s LisAI Su.

Well Germany is a bit of a special breed as "countries" go, since Austria, Sweden/Norway/Denmark/Finland, and probably Czechia and Poland has quite a few things delivered straight from them.

But even if you assume it represents a solid third of the European market, big questions remain:
- what of the american market (assuming same volume per population)
- and what of the asian markets

American market I can ballpark a guess from Euro market, but Asia I have no clue.

What is sure is that the chinese market is huge, there are even some CPUs that are sold only there, as for the US check Microcenter 2.4bn annual revenue for just 26 stores, a big chunk of their revenue is made of CPUs sales, and they are not the only ones in this market.

I wouldnt be surprised if the retail CPU market account for 30% of the total DT sales, and likely much more for CPUs like the 7800X3D that account FI for more than 20% of Mindfactory s 5k units weekly sales.

Now high income countries have higher ASP than emergent markets but those latter are more likely to rely on DIY to cut costs as much as possible, so the the lower ASPs are surely compensated by a bigger DIY market in respect of commercial PCs sales.

 

[cellarnoise]

To others, the Zen 5 frontend innovations, and more of the microarchitectural changes, might be peripherally interesting from the technology POV as well. (I wonder whether there will be any in-depth reporting on it at all though.)

Will Strix Halo indeed offer technological surprises, even after we have seen MI300A and Meteor Lake?

Maybe non-compete clause(s)? will expire soon? Maybe in-depth / geeky stuff will come forth?

 

[Fjodor2001]

April was launch, not product on shelves, please.

No launch happened.

Still 4 days left of April. Don’t give up yet. ⏳🥱🤣

 

[Abwx]

With Asrock and Biostar releasing bios updates for Zen 5 seems that now everybody
is on board for what look like a quite early release in respect of previous year end expectations.

ASRock and Biostar announce Ryzen 9000 (Zen5) support on AMD 600-series motherboards - VideoCardz.com

ASRock and Biostar ready for Ryzen 9000, but is AMD ready? Additional motherboard vendors confirm support for ‘next-gen’ Ryzen CPUs. Following ASUS, MSI and Gigabyte, ASRock and Biostar have also issued press releases confirming support for AMD’s new Ryzen series. Both motherboard vendors did...

videocardz.com

 

[jpiniero]

I wouldnt be surprised if the retail CPU market account for 30% of the total DT sales, and likely much more for CPUs like the 7800X3D that account FI for more than 20% of Mindfactory s 5k units weekly sales.

Intel had 2.5 billion in revenue in the quarter just on desktop alone. That's like 20-25 million units. Even a million in retail CPU sales wouldn't even be 5%.

 

[inquiss]

I think AMD has been cautious, for a long time over using wafers to chase low margin segments. They don't have a cost advantage Vs intel for cheaper products. They chase margins generally Vs share and I think the memory of being stung and tied to the WSA influences their thinking over that.

As they bring more, cheaper capacity online from Samsung with Sonoma valley you might see them push more towards bulk markets they have typically avoided.

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

With Kraken, they'll have a cost advantage in the mainstream due to it being a monolithic design versus MTL/ARL/LNL tiled approach with expensive packaging.

Kraken for mainstream and Sonoma for budget will be a 2 punch against Intel. RPL 282 won't compete with Sonoma and MTL/ARL 282 won't compete with KRK. Intel saving grace will be their unmatched volume.

 

[jpiniero]

Was just thinking about this... Zen 5 can't becoming out at a worse time with the whole industry apesheet over AI.