News The GPU market is imploding

[NTMBK]

Shipments of integrated and discrete graphics processing units dropped to a 10-year low in the third quarter as PC OEMs reduced procurements of CPUs, and gamers lowered their purchases of existing graphics cards while waiting for next-generation products. In contrast, miners ceased to buy graphics boards due to changes that happened to Ethereum. In general, sales of standalone graphics cards for desktops hit a multi-year low.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/gpu-market-nosedives-sales-lowest-in-a-decade

Wow, Nvidia picked a great time to launch their extortionately priced 4000 series.

 

[biostud]

No crypto market, and all of us that follows the industry is waiting for the reasonable priced next gen cards. What is surprising about this?

 

[SPBHM]

the used market for GPUs is looking great with all of those retired mining workers.

 

[WelshBloke]

They are too bloody expensive is why!
I'm running a GTX1080 that needs upgrading I guess, but I don't have a UHD screen so it still works fine for a casual user like me.
The use case for high end GPUs gets more and more niche every year. To need one you need a UHD monitor with high refresh rates and a want to run everything at the highest details and several thousand quid that you want to dispose of.
Or you could buy a console for a fraction of that.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Wow, Nvidia picked a great time to launch their extortionately priced 4000 series.

BAN NVIDIA.

(Edit: Until they drop their prices?)

 

[VirtualLarry]

the used market for GPUs is looking great with all of those retired mining workers.

Too bad that they all have Black lung fan disease. Oh, except for the pressure-washed cards, of course. ;P

Shipments of integrated and discrete graphics processing units dropped to a 10-year low in the third quarter

So, now we know what the "ordinary" GPU market is like, these days, without crypto.

Without the "Crypto Bros Power" (and huge $$$), how are GPU companies going to fund R&D now?

 

[biostud]

Too bad that they all have Black lung fan disease. Oh, except for the pressure-washed cards, of course. ;P


So, now we know what the "ordinary" GPU market is like, these days, without crypto.

Without the "Crypto Bros Power" (and huge $$$), how are GPU companies going to fund R&D now?

The same way as before crypto?

What nvidia learned during the pandemic and crypto craze, is that there still exist a market that previously would have bought quad, tri or a regular SLI setup, so they created a card for that crowd, the 4090.

When we look back to compare pricing, we sometimes forget that some were willing to double up on price to get maybe up to 80% scaling, double power consumption and all the troubles a dual setup could have. The 4090 is SLI without all the problems.

 

[maddie]

Too bad that they all have Black lung fan disease. Oh, except for the pressure-washed cards, of course. ;P


So, now we know what the "ordinary" GPU market is like, these days, without crypto.

Without the "Crypto Bros Power" (and huge $$$), how are GPU companies going to fund R&D now?

You're being optimistic. Crypto is just part of, and sadly maybe not even the largest part of the fall in demand. I won't write what I think.

 

[moonbogg]

Nvidia can jump off a cliff and land ass first on a dead tree. I'm done with their pricing assault on gamers.

 

[tamz_msc]

GPU market may be imploding but that isn't stopping NVIDIA from gaining market share:

Total PC GPU shipments:



Desktop GPU market share:

Q3 2022 Discrete GPU Market Share Report: NVIDIA Gains 88% Market Share Hold, AMD Now at 8% Followed By Intel at 4%

Jon Peddie Research (JPR) has published the full GPU market share report for Q3 2022 that cover AMD, Intel & NVIDIA GPUs.

wccftech.com

 

[psolord]

They are too bloody expensive is why!
I'm running a GTX1080 that needs upgrading I guess, but I don't have a UHD screen so it still works fine for a casual user like me.
The use case for high end GPUs gets more and more niche every year. To need one you need a UHD monitor with high refresh rates and a want to run everything at the highest details and several thousand quid that you want to dispose of.
Or you could buy a console for a fraction of that.

Sure you can and you will get a fraction of the performance as well. Plus a locked ecosystem, locked settings, locked freedom in general. Plus you can't play everything with one console. You need both of them to get access to each one exlusives. While on the PC you are getting most of them.

I don't support nvidia's practices by a long shot, and they can go ahead and eat a bug of things the forums rules do not allow me to say (but they rhyme with vicks) BUT the 4080 compared to the PS5 is like 3 times faster in raster and 6 times faster in RT. The 4090 even more so. Sure you need the rest of the PC, but it matters from where you start. I mean most gpu buyers already have a PC. Plus they can do a myriad things with it. And these PCs have a much much longer usability life. I mean my 2500k+7950 still can play many games, at least most of the indies and several of the AAAs and this is machine from PS3 era. Where's the PS3 now, hmm?

Not to mention that this very GEN7 era machine can still play games that do not even exist for GEN 8 consoles. For example Gotham Knights, A Plague Tale Requiem, The Chant and the list will only grow bigger. Same goes for the GTX 970, which trust me, it runs Spider Man, Sackboy, Horizon Zero Dawn, Uncharted and many more, much better than all the XBOXes combined, if you get my drift...

And to add insult to injury, this 2500k+7950 system, can run Gotham Knights faster than PS5 and XBOX do today, since they are locked at 30fps already, lol. Sure lower setttings and all, but this is a 12yo CPU with a 11yo GPU, ok?

Go ahead buddy. Get a console at the fraction of the cost. A cost which is 650 euros for the base PS5 in Europe btw. Yeah I can get a 6800XT with that money, which is 2X PS5 performance, thanks.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Consoles stopped being an alternative for cash strapped gameRs that would normally play on PC, the moment PC hardware prices settled down. You can build a console killer for dirt cheap again.

Between everyone buying a PC in 20-21 and crypto going bust, this news was expected. Nor am I surprised Nvidia took even more discreet market share.

Now, AMD card makers need to do another price cut on the 6700 and up. I am not paying over $500 for a 6800XT given the market conditions, with the new gen on the horizon. Drop the price to $450 on any model please and thanks.

 

[Tup3x]

GPU market may be imploding but that isn't stopping NVIDIA from gaining market share:

Total PC GPU shipments:

View attachment 71718

Desktop GPU market share:

View attachment 71719

Q3 2022 Discrete GPU Market Share Report: NVIDIA Gains 88% Market Share Hold, AMD Now at 8% Followed By Intel at 4%

Jon Peddie Research (JPR) has published the full GPU market share report for Q3 2022 that cover AMD, Intel & NVIDIA GPUs.

wccftech.com

Can those discrete GPU market shares be correct? Intel's share seems to be quite high relative to AMD.

 

[NTMBK]

Go ahead buddy. Get a console at the fraction of the cost. A cost which is 650 euros for the base PS5 in Europe btw. Yeah I can get a 6800XT with that money, which is 2X PS5 performance, thanks.

And even with all that raw power, you will still have a worse experience due to stuttering.

 

[biostud]

Now, AMD card makers need to do another price cut on the 6700 and up. I am not paying over $500 for a 6800XT given the market conditions, with the new gen on the horizon. Drop the price to $450 on any model please and thanks.

Exactly, since I'm due for a total upgrade I have decided I'm going to wait for next gen no matter what, and besides I would not pay anything this close to MSRP two years after release and with next gen so close.

 

[psolord]

And even with all that raw power, you will still have a worse experience due to stuttering.

Not by a long shot mate.

I've watched those Digital Foundry videos as well. They do the right thing calling devs out. This stutter only happens in few UE4 games. I mean there are a myriad egnines out there that are fine. Moreover I prefer to have a few stutters here and there, which will be the 1/10000th of the total game time and have the rest of the 9999/10000 of the frametimes super fast, thank you very much.

 

[linkgoron]

The same way as before crypto?

What nvidia learned during the pandemic and crypto craze, is that there still exist a market that previously would have bought quad, tri or a regular SLI setup, so they created a card for that crowd, the 4090.

When we look back to compare pricing, we sometimes forget that some were willing to double up on price to get maybe up to 80% scaling, double power consumption and all the troubles a dual setup could have. The 4090 is SLI without all the problems.

The 4090 is just a rebadged big card which they've almost always sold.

GeForce 280 - 576mm^2
Geforce 480 - 530mm^2
Geforce 580 - 520mm^2
Geforce 780/TI - 561mm^2
Geforce 980TI - 601mm^2
Geforce 1080TI - 471mm^2
Geforce 2080TI -754mm^2
Geforce 3080/TI/3090 - 628.4mm^2
Geforce 4090 - 608.5mm^2

They just renamed them.

 

[Ranulf]

Now, AMD card makers need to do another price cut on the 6700 and up. I am not paying over $500 for a 6800XT given the market conditions, with the new gen on the horizon. Drop the price to $450 on any model please and thanks.

Maybe we'll see that at Christmas time but probably not until the deadzone of Jan/Feb or the final push of cards in spring/summer before the 7000 series. Nvidia doesn't seem to be moving at all price wise. A free game is nice, its even one I want but the 3060 prices are a joke compared to 6600/6650XT prices and those have free games too.

I'm really wondering where all this excess supply is and if Nvidia is just gonna hold onto it like those 1060 chips in 2018.

 

[exquisitechar]

Can those discrete GPU market shares be correct? Intel's share seems to be quite high relative to AMD.

It's about units and not revenue, so it's very possible. I believe it to be more or less accurate. Remember that Intel has strong partnerships with OEMs and their GPUs mostly cover the low end.

Radeon is circling the drain despite getting better in recent years. Navi23 and Navi22 GPUs clearly aren't selling even at prices at which they offer some of the best value in the market. Nvidia's mindshare is only getting more dominant. I'm not surprised at all. That's why I was especially disappointed with RDNA3. Despite being pretty decent, it's not what AMD needs to survive and thrive in the market. They need a moonshot if they want to turn things around. Hopefully, Navi33 does well in laptops.

 

[biostud]

The 4090 is just a rebadged big card which they've almost always sold.

GeForce 280 - 576mm^2
Geforce 480 - 530mm^2
Geforce 580 - 520mm^2
Geforce 780/TI - 561mm^2
Geforce 980TI - 601mm^2
Geforce 1080TI - 471mm^2
Geforce 2080TI -754mm^2
Geforce 3080/TI/3090 - 628.4mm^2
Geforce 4090 - 608.5mm^2

They just renamed them.

But the price/mm^2 is not the same. The Geforce 280 is from 2008 using 65nm where a wafer was ~$2000, the 5nm in 2020 was ~$17000 so the, if napkin maths can be applied then $/mm^2 has increased by a factor 8.5

 

[linkgoron]

But the price/mm^2 is not the same. The Geforce 280 is from 2008 using 65nm where a wafer was ~$2000, the 5nm in 2020 was ~$17000 so the, if napkin maths can be applied then $/mm^2 has increased by a factor 8.5

I wanted to show that your claim that Nvidia has created a new card which is what "SLI used to be" is false. There was always a big card, and there's nothing special about the 4090 except branding and naming. Historically it's not even that big.

 

[igor_kavinski]

That is VERY playable AND enjoyable!

 

[biostud]

I wanted to show that your claim that Nvidia has created a new card which is what "SLI used to be" is false. There was always a big card, and there's nothing special about the 4090 except branding and naming. Historically it's not even that big.

If you only look on physical die size, you are correct.
My argument is that there is a reason why nvidia can and will sell cards in this price range. The market is there. There is also a reason why a GPU the same size keeps getting more expensive every generation, as the $/mm^2 increases. But most of all there is a lack of competition in high end GPU and leading edge chip production.

 

[Racan]

And even with all that raw power, you will still have a worse experience due to stuttering.

VRR monitors will fix that in most cases.

 

[Aapje]

Exactly, since I'm due for a total upgrade I have decided I'm going to wait for next gen no matter what, and besides I would not pay anything this close to MSRP two years after release and with next gen so close.

I would like a 3080 Ti level of performance, but not at 3080 Ti or 6900 XT levels of wattage, especially with the energy prices. Plus I'd like AV1-support. I suspect that future VR headsets will support wireless PCVR through AV1-encoding.

Given the BOM calculations that have been made, it seems that AMD can easily maintain similar prices as last gen per tier. So I'll definitely wait for at least the 7800 XT & 7700 XT to see what they bring and at what price. I'm not in a hurry anyway. Plenty of less demanding still games to play. I used to play DOS games with 4 colors, so Forza Horizon 4 on a 1660 Super is far from a tragedy.

I think that Nvidia have really painted themselves into a corner, pre-ordering huge amounts of wafers, probably at a higher price than what AMD pays. Nvidia need volume, but they can't lower their prices that much due to a high BOM cost. Even if much of the market won't consider AMD, a lot of people simply won't upgrade if they can't afford a decent upgrade or if their wife doesn't let them. We saw after the previous pricing boom that Nvidia/Jensen has the tendency to price and tier his products for the past, with Turing being priced high and being tiered poorly (bad chips for each tier). Then the 3000-series was relatively generous, since Nvidia/Jensen wanted to sell those at good volume. But then the next mining boom happened. And with the 4000 series, the cards seem tiered and priced for the insane mining boom we've seen, which is completely out of whack with the current market.

What we saw for Turing was that instead of discounting the normal line or replacing the entire line with new variants with better tiers, they introduced the 1660 cards to still sell volume, by cutting out the higher end features that many didn't want to pay for. So next year we might see a 3660 Super which is actually Ada-based, not Ampere, with cut raytracing and DLSS 3 support, aimed at the $200-350 market. In fact, I think that they were planning on having that anyway, since with the tiers and pricing for the 4000-cards, even the 4050 is going to be $400. So they need to fill the space below.

Lower in the Nvidia product-stack their sales pitch falls apart anyway, since RT is not feasible with few raytracing cores and DLSS 3 only really works well to get from good to high FPS. So a cheap card that cuts this out and just offers DLSS 2 could do well.

As of now, I think that the market is in a transitory period. If you want to have the good deals, you need to wait for the market to realize that this product won't sell itself. The 4080 sales are showing this a bit and as cards lower in the stack are released for the new gen, they'll face more and more price-sensitivity. Still, if you want Nvidia, you should probably not expect good deals from the 4000-range and at best good value from a 3660 or the like. AMD hopefully will want to take decent market share and keep decent prices. They'll probably have to be good value just to keep their market share.