News The GPU market is imploding

[NTMBK]

Shipments of integrated and discrete graphics processing units dropped to a 10-year low in the third quarter as PC OEMs reduced procurements of CPUs, and gamers lowered their purchases of existing graphics cards while waiting for next-generation products. In contrast, miners ceased to buy graphics boards due to changes that happened to Ethereum. In general, sales of standalone graphics cards for desktops hit a multi-year low.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/gpu-market-nosedives-sales-lowest-in-a-decade

Wow, Nvidia picked a great time to launch their extortionately priced 4000 series.

 

[VirtualLarry]

I have a 4K60 screen, over HDMI 2.0, so I was looking at 6800XT and up.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

The AMD stuff is a great deal right now. Those 6700XTs are priced great right now. Anyone building a 1440p rig right now is going AMD for sure and with no regrets. All of the Nvidia stuff is priced so stupid it's not even worth thinking about. They aren't even a player in the market right now unless buying a 4090.

- Nah, everything could stand to be about $50 - 100 cheaper (for AMD). Then it would be in just about the right place for an end of gen firesale.

6900XT - $500
6800XT - $400
6700XT - $300
6600XT - $200
6500XT - $100

I cry blood everytime I see "3090 for $1000 = instabuy" gamers are their own worst enemy I swear to f'ing god.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

The AMD stuff is a great deal right now. Those 6700XTs are priced great right now. Anyone building a 1440p rig right now is going AMD for sure and with no regrets. All of the Nvidia stuff is priced so stupid it's not even worth thinking about. They aren't even a player in the market right now unless buying a 4090.

Yeah it really is just the 4090 as the only thing from Nvidia that makes any sense for a gamer to buy. Even the 3080 10GB make little sense when the 6800 XT is pretty much equivalent at both 1440p and 4k and was selling around $550, and 3080 12GB is usually $750 and up.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

I have a 4K60 screen, over HDMI 2.0, so I was looking at 6800XT and up.

What's your buy price on 6800 XT? Because with 16GB I think it's going to age a lot better than the 3080 10GB.

 

[Hans Gruber]

Go back in thread histories when forum members lightly bashed me for complaining about the pricing of the 4090 and 4080 cards. I questioned how a market freefalling could justify not only price increases but holding steady on outgoing GPU's.

Below is further evidence that the GPU market is a sinking ship. Consumers will punish manufacturers for their greed by sitting on the sidelines. I said in an earlier thread/post that my strike time for a GPU purchase was pushed out to 6 months.

Sales of graphics cards hit lowest sales since a decade

In graphics processing units (GPUs), sales have been steadily falling. Even worse, sales for this division were their lowest in almost a decade in the fiscal third quarter of 2022....

www.guru3d.com

 

[Dribble]

It's just the end of crypto mining with gpu's for now. If you lose a major market for your gpu's it's not surprising that there is a huge contraction in that market. Beyond that most of the market isn't served by new cards and is waiting for cards to arrive in their price range. I mean if you've aleady waited 2 years because the 3xxx nvidia cards were too expensive (due to miners) you aren't going to buy one now, you're gonna keep waiting for the 4xxx card. A decent $300-400 4xxx card will sell fast.

 

[Aapje]

Yeah it really is just the 4090 as the only thing from Nvidia that makes any sense for a gamer to buy.

Even then it only makes sense as a halo tier, where poor value is acceptable. It's considerable less poor value than the 3090 was, even if the 4080 was priced merely a little higher than the 3080.

@Hans Gruber

What I see from Nvidia's marketing, annual reports, etc; is a company for whom PC gamers are increasingly an afterthought. And AMD delivers almost all of the console APUs, so they benefit if gamers flee to consoles.

So I worry about them not caring if they price many people out of PC gaming. Then again, I think that the sellers still need to go through their stages of grief before they accept the new reality, where they need to start giving good value to people again. AMD is well positioned to give good value and gain market share, while Nvidia has prebought so many wafers that they probably cannot afford to lose a ton of market share and accept a generation that sells poorly.

So my guess is that we will see harsh price competition, but just later than many of think is sensible.

 

[In2Photos]

- Nah, everything could stand to be about $50 - 100 cheaper (for AMD). Then it would be in just about the right place for an end of gen firesale.

6900XT - $500
6800XT - $400
6700XT - $300
6600XT - $200
6500XT - $100

I cry blood everytime I see "3090 for $1000 = instabuy" gamers are their own worst enemy I swear to f'ing god.

While I'm sure everyone would love that pricing I don't see it happening for all of the cards, maybe 1 or 2 models may go that low. The 6800XT models that were $520-$540 over the weekend sold out on Newegg. If you hold out too long there might not be anything available. I was hoping for $400 6800XTs though.

It's just the end of crypto mining with gpu's for now. If you lose a major market for your gpu's it's not surprising that there is a huge contraction in that market. Beyond that most of the market isn't served by new cards and is waiting for cards to arrive in their price range. I mean if you've aleady waited 2 years because the 3xxx nvidia cards were too expensive (due to miners) you aren't going to buy one now, you're gonna keep waiting for the 4xxx card. A decent $300-400 4xxx card will sell fast.

Waiting doesn't guarantee you will get a 4xxx series card for a good price. The 4080 is proof of that. The only 4xxx card to sell for $300-$400 is likely to be a 4050 and probably won't be available for another year.

 

[Aapje]

Waiting doesn't guarantee you will get a 4xxx series card for a good price.

I think that the point is more the opposite. If these companies don't provide good value for reasonable prices, then many consumers will just postpone upgrades. And if a good enough deal never comes, many people may just use their hardware until it breaks.

Historically, the computer market has been driven in large part by people being lured into upgrades, rather than having broken electronics that need to be replaced. Sales are much lower in markets where people wait to upgrade until their hardware breaks. Then you often have 10-20 year upgrade cycles, while a 4-6 year upgrade cycle is probably most common for gamers.

So sales can easily get cut in half if the GPU market transitions to a replacement market. That's even ignoring that more people will probably shift to consoles, whose lack of upgradability is much less of an issue if you don't get much better videocards for the same money after a few years.

So if these companies don't want a huge loss in sales, they better start providing good upgrades.

 

[Hans Gruber]

I looked up the pricing for the 7950 back in 2012. It was $459-$499. I bought a 7950 in August 2013 for $220-230. That was flagship last generation GPU in 2013. AMD would be well served selling the 6800XT for $300 after RDNA3 is released.

It's like they want to reinvent the market. This isn't apple, it's the PC market.

 

[mastertech01]

Where do the PC manufacturers stand in all this. Are they paying the current market prices to put video in their PC. Dell, HP, etc?

 

[Hans Gruber]

Where do the PC manufacturers stand in all this. Are they paying the current market prices to put video in their PC. Dell, HP, etc?

No, they have a different supply channel so they are not subject to extortion pricing.

 

[Stuka87]

I looked up the pricing for the 7950 back in 2012. It was $459-$499. I bought a 7950 in August 2013 for $220-230. That was flagship last generation GPU in 2013. AMD would be well served selling the 6800XT for $300 after RDNA3 is released.

It's like they want to reinvent the market. This isn't apple, it's the PC market.

The 7970 was the flagship GPU in 2012, the 7950 was the cut down card. They came out in January 2012, and were replaced in September of 2013 when the 280x came out (Tahiti rebrand). The 280X was $299 at launch.

However, suggesting that todays cards should cost what those cards costs is a bit short sighted. The cost to produce a chip has increased significantly, coolers are more expensive, inflation has driven prices up a lot in the last ten years. If AMD sold a 6800XT for $300, they, and the AIBs would be losing money, as that's below the manufacture price.

 

[Hans Gruber]

The 7970 was the flagship GPU in 2012, the 7950 was the cut down card. They came out in January 2012, and were replaced in September of 2013 when the 280x came out (Tahiti rebrand). The 280X was $299 at launch.

However, suggesting that todays cards should cost what those cards costs is a bit short sighted. The cost to produce a chip has increased significantly, coolers are more expensive, inflation has driven prices up a lot in the last ten years. If AMD sold a 6800XT for $300, they, and the AIBs would be losing money, as that's below the manufacture price.

Feel free to revisit this post in 6 months time. I know I am right about supply and demand. The other solution is to toss out all the unsold inventory. Better to destroy it than sell it at a loss or reduced profit with your logic.

 

[blckgrffn]

Feel free to revisit this post in 6 months time. I know I am right about supply and demand. The other solution is to toss out all the unsold inventory. Better to destroy it than sell it at a loss or reduced profit with your logic.

It seems at least that AMD doesn't have the mountain of stock - including second hand market mining cards - that nvidia as to contend with.

Especially 16GB cards seem to slowly be getting the attention as "better lifetime value" cards so it's likely they'll keep charging a premium for them.

I think its more likely that we'll see fewer 6800s/6800xt cards in the channel at all and the focus will move to sub-$200 6600s, and the 6700XT tier card at ~$300. 6900XT at ~$500 or $550 would be a nice place for them, I think.

I am sure AMD is OK with moving volumes on those cards and it's unlikely they'll need to address a nvidia competitor in the space for quite some time. 6-9 months? The moment we see the 4060 12 GB at $350 - where I think it will need to be compete with AMD - all the ampere cards 3070ti and below will become three day old fish

I mean, I'll be here to get a 3060Ti or three for cheap builds though, but not for my friends or family. The 8GB frame buffer is dead to me

 

[Stuka87]

Feel free to revisit this post in 6 months time. I know I am right about supply and demand. The other solution is to toss out all the unsold inventory. Better to destroy it than sell it at a loss or reduced profit with your logic.

As noted above by @blckgrffn , AMD did not over produce cards to the extent that nVidia did. There is a huge glut of nVidia cards. So much so that the 4080 didn't even sell at out launch, which has not happened since the 2x00 series came out and everybody bought 1080Ti's instead.

Currently nVidia does not have anything competitive to AMD in these lower price brackets. So there is no reason for AMD to drop prices lower, as the cards are selling (several retails are out of stock for quite a few models after yesterdays sales).

 

[GodisanAtheist]

While I'm sure everyone would love that pricing I don't see it happening for all of the cards, maybe 1 or 2 models may go that low. The 6800XT models that were $520-$540 over the weekend sold out on Newegg. If you hold out too long there might not be anything available. I was hoping for $400 6800XTs though.

- I picked up a used 6800XT for $450 all in (Shipping + Taxes) so I'm out of the rat race for hopefully a good long while here.

People who are as price conscious as I am should really look into the used market a bit more if they're hoping to shave some additional dollars off a card. Ebay will give you a 30 day (from delivery) "buyer protection" coverage and if the card you get doesn't work you can absolutely ship it back and get a refund (had to do that with a 3080 10GB I initially bought that had some bad ram modules on it).

Realistically a card that works for 30 days across a wide range of games is not likely to give up the ghost soon, especially if its a current gen card.

 

[CP5670]

I'll put up my 3090 here in a few days. The problem with ebay is they take a huge 13-15% cut out of the transaction.

 

[mastertech01]

I'll put up my 3090 here in a few days. The problem with ebay is they take a huge 13-15% cut out of the transaction.

That is a problem but they also give you millions more buyers to make the sale quick with the right price. Or you can sell here for less and make the same money with a trusted buyer.

 

[Mopetar]

Or just list it on Craigslist if you live somewhere with enough people that there'd be a few people who'd want to buy it.

 

[mastertech01]

Or just list it on Craigslist if you live somewhere with enough people that there'd be a few people who'd want to buy it.

Yes, or facebook marketplace. Everyone Ive seen selling there want two arms and a leg still though.

 

[MrTeal]

They're not going to sell at arm and leg prices. 3090s were wildly oversold to miners so there's a lot of used stock of them to sell. Gamers won't pay a premium outside their performance for a used card and in a few days they won't even be top 5 for fastest cards. Considering you see 3080 10GB going for $500 or less and the 3090 is only ~15% faster even at 4k, only completely oblivious buyers would pay anywhere near what some people are asking.

 

[CP5670]

That is a problem but they also give you millions more buyers to make the sale quick with the right price. Or you can sell here for less and make the same money with a trusted buyer.

That is true, and I often end up going there for just that reason. I usually try FS/FT and craigslist and go to ebay if it doesn't sell in a few weeks. I would rather sell at a lower price here with no fees and a more knowledgable buyer.

 

[moonbogg]

It's just the end of crypto mining with gpu's for now. If you lose a major market for your gpu's it's not surprising that there is a huge contraction in that market. Beyond that most of the market isn't served by new cards and is waiting for cards to arrive in their price range. I mean if you've aleady waited 2 years because the 3xxx nvidia cards were too expensive (due to miners) you aren't going to buy one now, you're gonna keep waiting for the 4xxx card. A decent $300-400 4xxx card will sell fast.

I don't expect one from Nvidia at all anymore. I think they will literally have price/performance go backwards and just thrug when people notice it. For instance, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a 4060 that performs like a 3070 for the price of a 3080. No, I'm not kidding. They will justify the price increase with DLSS 3.0 or something.

 

[Aapje]

With DLSS 3 you get double the frames, so you get a bargain if you pay only 1.5x as much, right?